November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[seattleweatherguy]

16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM 960mb into Vancouver Island

D**n winds at face value? The gfs has a similar track and the ecwf goes more into oregon

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said:

D**n winds at face value? The gfs has a similar track and the ecwf goes more into oregon

The NAM will set us straight! 

[Requiem]

GFS still looks plenty stormy! Especially on Friday/Saturday

[Jesse]

The sun angles seemed pretty low today. With that in mind, I like the fact that all of December and January have even lower sun angles than today.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

GFS still looks plenty stormy! Especially on Friday/Saturday

Andrew is setting up a Zoom call with you now! 

[MossMan]

Wind!! Rocking the house, temp up to 35. 

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Back to 00z GFS - Day 9

Little doubt we are going to get it good at some point.  All I have to go by is La Nina seasons that had similar weather to this early in the season and that points to a December blast.  If the moderate cold shots continue through December without the big one hitting then we could have a great January.  The recurring Aleutian / GOA ridge usually means good things with a La Nina season.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wind!! Rocking the house, temp up to 35. 

No kiddin? Southerlies?

[Meatyorologist]

Straight rain here. Temp around 38F.

[snow_wizard]

Sitting at 36 here now.  Color me impressed for seeing it this chilly on a cloudy night this early in the season.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 45F here and cloudy. Held steady there for several hours.

[umadbro]

GFS does this. Show great stuff then backs off as the day gets closer. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Snowing in Central Vancouver Island (~1400 feet):

 

[Jesse]

Just now, umadbro said:

GFS does this. Show great stuff then backs off as the day gets closer. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The sun angles seemed pretty low today. With that in mind, I like the fact that all of December and January have even lower sun angles than today.

Sounds like model-riding to me. Personally, I wouldn’t trust those forecasts more than seven days out.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

No kiddin? Southerlies?

According to my weather station it’s currently a NW wind. 

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Inside of an hour Hoquiam went from S winds gusting to 51 to brisk NW winds.  The low must be pretty far south.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 44.

[snow_wizard]

32 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS has abandoned us.

It's not really that different.  Same general theme with a few detail differences.

[snow_wizard]

Looking even closer at the Hoquiam winds they went from E to strong S to NW in 2 hours.  A surface low must have tracked very near there.

I'll be interested to see how far south the north winds get tomorrow with the next cold trough.  850s bottom out below -6 again tomorrow night.  I absolutely love what I'm seeing this month so far.

[MossMan]

Looks like Cliff needs to join Andrews Zoom call. 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/11/potential-for-major-storm-on-friday.html?m=1

[Gradient Keeper]

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Both the 00z GFS and GEM peaked wind gusts between 50-60 mph around the Puget Sound area on either Friday night (GEM) or Saturday morning (GFS). Upwards of 70+ mph down the Strait on the backside of the low.

Looking forward to the potential of a good windstorm later this week. Hope it materializes over the next couple days.

Doesn’t look too shabby for the valley either. Gusts 45-55 maybe?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wet snow on the North Shore west of Vancouver (~650 ft):

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking even closer at the Hoquiam winds they went from E to strong S to NW in 2 hours.  A surface low must have tracked very near there.

I'll be interested to see how far south the north winds get tomorrow with the next cold trough.  850s bottom out below -6 again tomorrow night.  I absolutely love what I'm seeing this month so far.

Yes... first image is 4 p.m. and second image now.

 

[umadbro]

26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's ok to be honest about things. But keep on your passive aggressive style.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks more like winter starting near Squamish (Alice Lake ~470 ft): 

and Brew Creek (~1600 ft):

 

[North_County]

We bought our first house two months ago. It's literally right next door to the house we had been renting for the past 6+ years because we liked the neighborhood so much.

 

I just realized I can't see the street lamp from here. I may need to chop a tree down.

[MossMan]

Just had an ice pellet shower. 
Wind bouncing between NW and SW. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1 (Past 4 runs)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

16 minutes ago, North_County said:

We bought our first house two months ago. It's literally right next door to the house we had been renting for the past 6+ years because we liked the neighborhood so much.

 

I just realized I can't see the street lamp from here. I may need to chop a tree down.

When I have looked for houses, I have also considered street lamps.  Never told anyone that, they wouldn't understand.  My neighborhood, even though it is otherwise very nice, didn't have streetlights.  So I had floodlights installed on our porch so so could watch the snow.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

When I have looked for houses, I have also considered street lamps.  Never told anyone that, they wouldn't understand.  My neighborhood, even though it is otherwise very nice, didn't have streetlights.  So I had floodlights installed on our porch so so could watch the snow.  

I will send my dogs out to trigger our motion light in the back yard or shine the flashlight out the window. And when we were looking for a new place a few years ago my wife kept wanting to look in the Conway/Mt Vernon area...Thank god our friends and neighbors at our old place bought where they did and the property just below became available at nearly the same time...My wife was all for it and I knew where we are now would be good for cold/snow! Bullet dodged since it would have been a bit awkward telling my wife we couldn’t move to her dream property since the Mt Vernon area sucks for cold/snow haha! 

[MossMan]

Up to .12” on the day. Temp 36. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Much further south than the GFS, GEM

 

[Gradient Keeper]

IF this panned out we would see HWWarnings for the Coast, Coast Range, AND Valleys/Western Washington.

[seattleweatherguy]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

IF this panned out we would see HWWarnings for the Coast, Coast Range, AND Valleys/Western Washington.

 

 

scott sistek on twitter says 23 or 24+ isobars between BLI-PDX. How does that translate to wind gusts and sustained winds?

[snow_wizard]

The trajectory of that low Friday night suggests there could be a pretty crazy wind surge down the Strait that could hit North Snohomish and Skagit Counties pretty hard.  That type of trajectory is much less conducive to really high winds in the Seattle area.  Details will be everything on that one.