November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 Nope, ugly

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well on the plus side I won't be missing much during the night shift as I have to turn in early since I have to get up at 6:30.

[seattleweatherguy]

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I believe this map shows max gusts over the period. 

Mostly topping out in the 45-55 mph range over the I-5 corridor.

Might be wind advisory worthy

[Gradient Keeper]

All eyes on Friday. I wonder what differences we'll see with 12z runs tomorrow with the depth and track of the low.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

Rather impressively the ECMWF only depicts above normal 850s two out of the next ten days.  We are certainly on a pretty chilly roll right now.  I'm going to be very interested to see how that low tracks on Friday.  It's probably no secret I am rooting for the chillier southern track.  I just don't have a lot of interest in wind anymore.  I've had plenty where I'm living now to suit me.

44 / 38 for the temperature range today, and currently 38 with totally clear skies.  I'm quite surprised the northerly flow proved strong enough to clear it out so quickly.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Rather impressively the ECMWF only depicts above normal 850s two out of the next ten days.  We are certainly on a pretty chilly roll right now.  I'm going to be very interested to see how that low tracks on Friday.  It's probably no secret I am rooting for the chillier southern track.  I just don't have a lot of interest in wind anymore.  I've had plenty where I'm living now to suit me.

44 / 38 for the temperature range today, and currently 38 with totally clear skies.  I'm quite surprised the northerly flow proved strong enough to clear it out so quickly.

Yeah the EURO was much better than the GFS or GEM.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Quillayute is down to 30 already. They have had a most impressive run of cold minimums from this cold snap.  It's also down to 30 just north of Everett already.

[FroYoBro]

Text me what the 6z shows. Thanks. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah the EURO was much better than the GFS or GEM.

The coming pattern is very complex.  Some of it will almost come down to luck on how some of the more delicate features evolve.  In the big picture the EPS shows the PNA remining negative right through the end of December when looking at the regular runs and the weeklies.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 inches already at Crystal Mountain

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at the all 00z runs there are two model camps now.

The NAM, GFS, ICON feature weaker solutions or are further south. The GEM, UKMET, EURO are considerably stronger targeting the Central or Northern Washington Coast. I would think with 12z runs tomorrow we'd see a better consensus. GFS moves towards the EURO? or ? Which one blinks first.

6z GFS in 1 hour 59 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Another reason I would like to see a southern track on the low on Friday is the fact cold air is really becoming entrenched over Central and Eastern WA now.  A southern track will keep that intact.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

15 inches already at Crystal Mountain

This is a seriously wintry pattern for this early.  Looking at other major La Nina seasons with similar weather at this time paints a really nice picture for our prospects this winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm off. I will see you tomorrow. Have a good night all.

[snow_wizard]

Might see a bonus freeze tonight.  I thought the gunk would be hard to clear out.  This must have verified a bit colder with a bit more oomph at the end.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice start to the year for them

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Peak gusts on the ensemble. Aight, I'm headed to bed. Early morning.

[BLI snowman]

06z is quite a run. 

[BLI snowman]

ICON and NAM also have jumped aboard. Good agreement now on a sub 980mb low and a WA coast landfall. 

[Jesse]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

06z is quite a run. 

The night shift dropped the ball.

[Jbolin]

I'm calling it right meow, 

Friday's system will come ashore just north of La Push (at 973mb) and move NNE towards and across Pt Angeles and into the southeastern suburbs of BC before filling in and dissipating just west of Kelowna, BC.

Max wind speeds sustained between 47 - 68mph
Max gusts between 53 - 76mph

The included crude pic shows the path I think the aforementioned system takes. 

 

[FroYoBro]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

ICON and NAM also have jumped aboard. Good agreement now on a sub 980mb low and a WA coast landfall. 

Why didn’t you text me?!?!?? 
 

That map from the 06z euro almost looks scary for some areas. Wow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z was pretty legit. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks for the filling in for us Night Shift slackers. 6z GFS with the low on Friday has completely caved(As did the 6z NAM, ICON) to the stronger EURO, UKMET, GEM. It shows a 976mb low moving onshore around Westport/Ocean Shores WA. One feature it did show other models have not was a double barrel structure or secondary lobe of low pressure to its south. We'll have to see if 12z/00z runs today show similarly. There is a very strong secondary low Monday night we must watch just as closely as it develops well to our southwest and takes on a more classic south-southwest trajectory offshore. This run was also incredibly wet with over half a foot of rain for the valley and over a foot along the coast! Overall from a 500mb standpoint it was a tad better run with the ridge/block placement was a bit closer to returning us back to the full blown Nina runs.

12z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes

12z EURO 3 hours 25 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Thanks guys. This boob had to get up early.

[jakerepp]

Happy Veterans Day, friends!

If you served in a branch of the Armed Forces, thank you for your service.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z NAM 972mb North Washington Coast.

[Gradient Keeper]

This could turn out to be a major wind storm after all. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

..... and then

Okayy 12z ICON doesn't develop a low at all. Hmmm..... Hasselhoff hit the bottle

[FroYoBro]

38 degrees with some drizzle. Chilly and nice to see the snow on mountain cams this morning. 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z 3km NAM is good for 50-60 mph gusts from Seattle south.

Here we go!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Low is 7mb stronger already compared to 6z.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 54 8mb stronger than 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh boy. 977mb Long Beach. Same as 6z EURO I believe

[Gradient Keeper]

A very compact low too. Nice.

[Gradient Keeper]

High Wind Watches issued after full suite or 12z runs come out? I think so.