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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

Posted Images

06z Euro also increased wind gusts a bit, especially for Oregon.

Had a bit of a double barrel low look to it as well, with one moving in around the tip of the Olympic Peninsula and another into the Columbia. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-5312000-1.png

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12z GFS continues to look a bit underwhelming but, again, it is an improvement by 5-10 mph in some spots over the 00z, mainly in Oregon. 

Seems there is a slight increase of wind gust speeds across most major model suites this morning. 

Take what we can get at this point. 

gfs-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-5301200.png

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Models need to make up their minds for f*cks sake. Low of 38 here this morning. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro also increased wind gusts a bit, especially for Oregon.

Had a bit of a double barrel low look to it as well, with one moving in around the tip of the Olympic Peninsula and another into the Columbia. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-5312000-1.png

Probably still high enough to knock out the power at my place. 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS continues to look a bit underwhelming but, again, it is an improvement by 5-10 mph in some spots over the 00z, mainly in Oregon. 

Seems there is a slight increase of wind gust speeds across most major model suites this morning. 

Take what we can get at this point. 

gfs-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-5301200.png

I’m surprised that the GFS shows me getting 50 mph gusts. May be a decently stormy day even without a strong compact low.

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I’m surprised that the GFS shows me getting 50 mph gusts. May be a decently stormy day even without a strong compact low.

It’s a pretty low res map. We both know the terrain of the area will produce some very windy areas and some much less so.  I know out where I live I’ll consistently see 20-30mph less wind than pdx in events like this due to all the hills nearby. 

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Wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up with borderline advisory winds here in Tacoma still. Gfs looks pretty stormy through day 7...quite a bit of rain and breezy conditions I still am a fan of the latest runs even without the big windstorm. 

D61F6BDD-CB06-4FE6-9BC9-EAE417CCC8A4.jpeg

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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10 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It’s a pretty low res map. We both know the terrain of the area will produce some very windy areas and some much less so.  I know out where I live I’ll consistently see 20-30mph less wind than pdx in events like this due to all the hills nearby. 

Probably best to hide inside under a blanket all day regardless.

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Jesse woke up! 
Currently 38 degrees and cloudy. Took the dogs for a walk this lovely morning. 

 

You must have missed the sunrise pic a few hours ago.

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Surprised that 19th Century analog didn't generate more buzz.

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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00z CFS stuck at hour 408 on pivotal. Looks chilly at that point.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This is so good to see!

Northern Oregon Cascades-
Including the city of Santiam Pass
426 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 4000 feet. Total snow
  accumulations of 15 to 30 inches. Ridgetop winds could gust as
  high as 60 mph, causing blowing and drifting of snow.

* WHERE...Northern Oregon Cascades.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 8 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel across the Cascade passes, and up to the ski
  resort elevations, will be very difficult at times. Gusty winds
  and heavy snow may bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally 3500 to 4500 feet,
  with heaviest snow accumulations at 4500 feet elevation and
  above.
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

What would that mean for the PNW from where I see it looks cooler than normal but not colder ala dark blue?

From what I can tell that winter had a pretty chilly February/March.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Weagle's early morning forecast discussion he still is watching things closely.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
431 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2020
 
Models have changed considerably from what was suggested by 12z Wednesday's model suite, with the 00z GFS/ECMWF and 06z NAM now all backing off from the idea of a strong surface low near the Washington coast. The most likely reason for this appears to be failure of the favorable left exit region to arrive in time to combine with the best baroclinicity off the PacNW coast. As such, we will be canceling the High Wind Watch for all but Oregon's Central Coast and the adjacent Coast Range zone. The 00z/06z NAM, as well as the 00z GFS/ECMWF, suggest the best opportunity for a strong coastal jet to form will be Lincoln City southward, and model boundary layer winds suggest a marginal wind event at best even for Oregon's Central Coast. We will be adjusting the timing of said High Wind Watch a bit earlier, to coincide with the frontal passage later tonight into Friday morning. All this said, we will need to watch closely the incoming waves of low pressure along the front, as there is plenty of potential for rapid development should the right ingredients come together at the right time.
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Front remaining stalled at least for the first half of Friday
before moving east late in the day. Models and ensembles for the
most part are in good agreement that the parent low with the
system, which looked for awhile to have the potential to produce
high winds, is now a low in the 990s millibar range moving inland
into Southern British Columbia Friday afternoon. This will give
the area some breezy to windy conditions in the afternoon.
Ensembles have a vast majority of the solutions producing
borderline wind advisory conditions in the afternoon ( sustained
winds at least 30 mph and gusts at least 45 mph ) or less. Snow
levels remaining below the pass levels with precipitation rates
easing in the afternoon. Will keep the winter storm warning for
the Cascades into late morning and keep the current watch intact
for the afternoon hours. Highs Friday near 50.

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7 minutes ago, van city said:

This is what I found.

Screenshot_20201112-090716_Chrome.jpg

PDX had 10" of snow that February. I believe the previous winter was much more epic. I think we would be pretty happy with a 1893-94 redux. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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If the GFS verifies through day 7 we should be over 5” of rain on the month by this time next week. Currently at 1.93” on the month. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

image.thumb.png.b34ba04f087649df4ea4a770eae36bf6.png

Looks like a wind advisory coming for the south sound atleast. If not it’ll be pretty close to the criteria for one. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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Man WB really needs to work on their servers. They keep going down at the worst times, funny story...when people are looking at the model data live!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Anyone looking for sizable wind should head to the N OR coast.

Definitely a bit windier than the 00z Euro showed, but fairly close to the 06z. Worth noting that the majority of that wind in OR (and partially WA) is between 10PM tonight and 4AM tomorrow morning.

1605312000-91OqEUO4DCY.png

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 A lot can and probably will change with how the Aleutian ridge, then Alaskan ridge are handled too as that is only now east of Japan and thus also with the trough offshore. We would see those differences roughly after Day 3.5 to 4.
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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Man WB really needs to work on their servers. They keep going down at the worst times, funny story...when people are looking at the model data live!

I submitted a ticket to them about it and they said they were recently made aware of the issue and are working to resolve asap.  

Trying to have them nip this in the bud before we are trying to track the never-ending snowstorms in December and need access to the Euro maps STAT!  😉

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