November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I bet you’ve never really done ‘em. 

Whatever makes you feel cool Jesse. 

[Jesse]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Whatever makes you feel cool Jesse. 

Easily my number one concern here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 6

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice low.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yay! Strong east winds!

[Dave]

Is it just me or did PDX NWS skip an AFD? 

Edit: Veteran's Day may have played a role. NVM.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 7

[Meatyorologist]

 

JAYA crediting underperforming 18z suite to poor model initialization. He was telling me this last night as well.

[seattleweatherguy]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

JAYA crediting underperforming 18z suite to poor model initialization. He was telling me this last night as well.

So throw out this run?

[Jesse]

Mostly sunny day but only 48 here so far. Tonight could be fairly chilly with clear skies early.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Yeah, I talked bad about it and then it turned around and gave me a ***** slap.  

I, for one, felt that was an inappropriate overreaction on its part. BAD NAM.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 8

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

WB running a full day behind Pivotal and Tidbits lol. Slow AF.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Geez... That windstorm collapsed super quick.

Nothing to see here...

Actually that is windier than earlier projections for my area! 

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

JAYA crediting underperforming 18z suite to poor model initialization. He was telling me this last night as well.

I miss JAYA’s NWS discussions and his posts here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 10

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I miss JAYA’s NWS discussions and his posts here. 

He used to the be on the forums?! What made him leave?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

He used to the be on the forums?! What made him leave?

He was! Fred could probably answer this better, but I think he got tired of the weather preference battles, the wild mood swings, and people dogging on professional mets??

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clown 11

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Geez... That windstorm collapsed super quick.

Nothing to see here...

I wouldn’t count it out yet. Models don’t seem to have a good idea about what’s going to happen. Could very easily end up being a big storm. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Only 44 currently after a low of 39 this morning. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clown 12

[Jesse]

Wow the GFS looks way better than the Euro with the overall pattern going forward. Too bad the 18z is having problems apparently.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Clown 12

Jesse downvoted this. He hates troughs!

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Jesse downvoted this. He hates troughs!

I was downvoting the nomenclature.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Clown 13

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Jesse said:

I was downvoting the nomenclature.

We should give you a TWF police badge. Fred can work on that and put it under your SN like the night shift one.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fourteen

[Jesse]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We should give you a TWF police badge. Fred can work on that and put it under your SN like the night shift one.

We all know I have no authority here.

And if someone figures out I don’t like something they usually just double down with it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

15

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Good AFD from Seattle, good explanation about the uncertainty and recent changes.

 

Main focus remains on potentially stronger system that will move
across the area Friday afternoon into early Saturday. High
uncertainty remains as models are having a tough time initializing
the system - which appears as unorganized blob right now over the
Pacific around 40N, 180W, some 3000 miles away. In the next 48
hours, the system will materialize and consolidate as it travels
to western Washington. Exact track of the low into the Pacific
Northwest will have large implications on the subsequent wind
forecast and expected impacts locally.

If you`ve been following along with the forecast guidance over
the last 48 hours, you may have noticed quite the adjustment in
guidance with the 12-18z suite. The latest guidance from
deterministic and most ensembles suggests a weaker system moving
into the PacNW on Friday with 18z GFS with a 994mb low into WA/OR
and 12z ECMWF a 990mb system into north coast. Why is this? Well
the latest ensemble guidance does not consolidate the energy as
much as previous runs, as seen on vorticity (700/850mb) with a
previous closed low offshore, now open and more progressive. The
tighter pressure gradient is now located more into central OR w/
some guidance suggesting a secondary low offshore of Oregon for
lighter gradients over WA. Current thinking reflects latest trends
and has breezy conditions for Western Washington with the most
likely location for gusty winds south of Olympia and along the
coast as PDX-BLI gradients are around 10mb. With the more open
wave, the timing might be a bit quicker with the breezy weather
mainly Friday afternoon into Friday evening. There still can be
adjustment in the forecast as the system is not fully developed
and a number of ECMWF ensembles suggest a 970-980mb low tracking
into the Olympic Peninsula, though this is more of an outlier at
this time. There will also be rather strong push down the Strait
of Juan de Fuca (refer to the marine discussion) for gusty
westerly winds along Whidbey Island Friday evening. Winds will
taper off into Saturday afternoon.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

15

So much better than the Euro.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

16 Hammer Time?

[TT-SEA]

Snow on the ridge today...

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Snow on the ridge today...

 

Looks melty.

 

 

 

SR-18 cam doesn't show much, either.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS

EC

I'll take #1 please

[Jesse]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS

EC

I'll take #1 please

Both are pretty good  

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We all know I have no authority here.

And if someone figures out I don’t like something they usually just double down with it.

I heard a rumor that you like cool and wet conditions...Can you verify? 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Looks melty.

 

 

 

SR-18 cam doesn't show much, either.

Its actually stayed the same all day... first time this year that the snow up there did not melt during the day.

The ridge is at 3,000 feet so that snow is around 2,000 feet and higher... the Tiger Mountain cam is at 1,300 feet.