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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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GFS Ensemble looking better than the EC. Somewhat warm from Sun-Wed then back to cooler.

  • Snow 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Took a drive down to Carnation this morning...this was not long after sunrise heading down my main road. Frosty! 

Anyway it had been forever since I had been to the Fall City/Carnation area...That is a place I could live if I ever lived south of where I am now. My friends 20 acres they just bought there is up around the 600’ level so they probably do well in the snow department. 

7F20941D-466F-452E-827D-FABCD6398981.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Took a drive down to Carnation this morning...this was not long after sunrise heading down my main road. Frosty! 

Anyway it had been forever since I had been to the Fall City/Carnation area...That is a place I could live if I ever lived south of where I am now. My friends 20 acres they just bought there is up around the 600’ level so they probably do well in the snow department. 

7F20941D-466F-452E-827D-FABCD6398981.jpeg

 

C-zone target there.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I liked living in Carnation, aside from having to drive a half hour to do any meaningful shopping. Overall it's a nice area. It's grown a lot over the past few years - lots of new housing developments going in. Still retains that small town vibe though.

I miss having access to the CZ too. Last winter was the first winter I didn't get the CZ snow and after seeing my parents (who still live up there) having almost a foot of snow while I got zilch in Maple Valley, let's just say I was cursing my decision to move south.

My parents have 20 acres and are around 550'. Assuming your friends must have bought up on the Tolt Highlands area too? Not aware of any other hills in Carnation that get that high. Tolt Hill might get close.

That’s right, I had forgotten that you had moved! Never move away from the CZ zone!! Yep their 20 acres is up on Tolt Highlands road! I had forgotten to look at my altimeter when I was at their place but checked it well down the hill which was at 500’ so I was guesstimating about 600’ at their place. Nice and quiet up there!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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53/33 for a -3F departure. Nice day!! Maybe some stars tonight.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, iFred said:

I really dont think we are going to be able to narrow down a cone of landfall that is under a hundred miles until tomorrow evening. Even then, something seems weird about this one.

Yeah not really sure what to expect. Could be an average blustery day or a potent storm. Probably won’t truly know until tomorrow night. It is still almost 3000 miles away. Models could be showing a weak low into central OR coast one run then have it into Vancouver island at 970mb the next run...just gotta give it some time. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

I really dont think we are going to be able to narrow down a cone of landfall that is under a hundred miles until tomorrow evening. Even then, something seems weird about this one.

Trend is toward an open wave rather than a closed cyclone.  Hence the move up in timing and the lack of a more northerly track.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 minutes ago, iFred said:

I really dont think we are going to be able to narrow down a cone of landfall that is under a hundred miles until tomorrow evening. Even then, something seems weird about this one.

The problem is the west-east track. It was clear from the beginning that this was not going to be a regionwide, Vancouver to Red Bluff event. You either get wind or you get screwed, and even a 50 mile shift can make a big difference.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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What on Earth happened to that low on the models today?  I can't remember the last time one just disappeared like that at this time frame.  Obviously going to be a difficult period coming up for the models.

Another chilly day with a 45 / 33 range here today.  

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

The problem is the west-east track. It was clear from the beginning that this was not going to be a regionwide, Vancouver to Red Bluff event. You either get wind or you get screwed, and even a 50 mile shift can make a big difference.

Yeah.  The trajectory was always going to be a problem with this one.  Just not a classic track.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00z NAM has a 989mb low into Vancouver Island.

So, no consensus at all. Might have to wat until noon tomorrow before models finally initialize this correctly.

  • Sad 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I love interesting weather....however I am not mad that this wind event is falling apart. I got a tree behind my house that is swaying and would make me nervous in a high wind event.

As I've said before wind isn't really my thing.  I get so much of it here albeit east winds that often don't effect many people in the Puget Sound region.  As you say having trees around your house is a major drawback in wind.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z NAM 3km

All I see is a weak open wave west of Coos Bay.
nam3km_mslp_wind_nwus_43.png

One of the greatest demises of a Pacific bomb I can remember in years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Two different lobes. This is weird.

Very weird!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Two different lobes. This is weird.

I noticed some of the models last night were trending toward splitting the energy.  Probably what went wrong.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I love interesting weather....however I am not mad that this wind event is falling apart. I got a tree behind my house that is swaying and would make me nervous in a high wind event.

Hopefully it doesn’t get weighed down with a bunch of snow or anything this winter either. Can’t be too careful!

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8 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

I'm all for a wind event if it is from the right direction and speed.

I could pile up all my leaves at the property line and let nature blow them into the neighbors yard.

Sign me up for a windstorm like that.

Yes, please.

I was just thinking the same thing today... a good windstorm would finish my yard clean up in a hurry with no effort.   I would all be blown into the woods.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's still trying to decide whether it's going to clear up here or not this evening.  Some big breaks developing, but a lot of clouds not too far off as well.  Would love to get one more freezing night out of this cold snap.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

My take......if something is going to bust let it be a wind storm.

Much better that than an Arctic blast or a snowstorm.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Hopefully it doesn’t get weighed down with a bunch of snow or anything this winter either. Can’t be too careful!

I didn't think about this. With all these 1949-1950 analogy's, I better get that tree cut down 

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I wonder if this is an omen and harbinger of things to come.

46/35 today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hopefully it doesn’t get weighed down with a bunch of snow or anything this winter either. Can’t be too careful!

Thankfully I finally got rid of the two trees that made me dread ice storms in the past.  I can breathe a little easier if we have a large amount of wet snow or ice now.  One of the few things I can feel good about this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wonder if this is an omen and harbinger of things to come.

46/35 today. 

I doubt it.  I think things have gone pretty well since the change happened a few weeks ago.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weird to see the potential storm just dissipate entirely. Oh well there will probably be other chances for storms this season its only mid November. Things don’t look too bad coming up plenty of rain still looks pretty typical for November. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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A windstorm bust definitely gets me a bit more as we’re decently overdue for a major southerly storm down south (southerly— not that awful Labor Day nightmare).

Plenty more chances though!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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As long as the Euro doesn’t verify we should be golden.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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