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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

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Heavy rain here as the frontal passage moves through. Only a faint breeze here north of the low and in the lee of the Olympics, but I'm also currently situated in the prime spot for the PSCZ. Maybe some hail/graupel, lightning/thunder, downpours, or maybe even some convective winds.

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46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Heavy rain here as the frontal passage moves through. Only a faint breeze here north of the low and in the lee of the Olympics, but I'm also currently situated in the prime spot for the PSCZ. Maybe some hail/graupel, lightning/thunder, downpours, or maybe even some convective winds.

Some of the "CAC" offshore have cloud tops approaching -35C, very cold air aloft offshore moving inland with WNW winds, I'd expect a very strong PSCZ SSE oriented later this morning/afternoon.

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Heavy rain here in McMinnville but that's about it. I woke to gusty winds during the night but nothing all that alarming. 

Haven't checked peak gusts or total rainfall from this system yet but it feels like a typical November event to me.

Hopefully Tuesdays storm delivers something more interesting.

At least I won't have any heavy storm damage to reckon with today.

Onward!

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Even one of the lowest elevation passes Snoqualmie pass has 28” from the last few days with another 18” expected by tomorrow morning and more snow forecasted almost every day next week.  One of the best starts to the season in a long time. 

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56 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

6 inches at least of snow here and still snowing.  The UW high resolution models were more accurate than the National Weather Service forecasts.

Just went out to measure.  9 inches, still snowing.  Big victory for the WRF and the UW high resolution ensembles and the high resolution NAM.  Big loss for the NWS and their automated forecasts, which have us less than 3 inches.

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Pretty much a non event down here. Some decent rain, but not a ton of wind. It appears the snow levels are about up to pass level around here, which isn't a good sign. 

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1 minute ago, dolt said:

Pretty much a non event down here. Some decent rain, but not a ton of wind. It appears the snow levels are about up to pass level around here, which isn't a good sign. 

Why is that not a good sign? We're in the warm sector, the fact that they are only up to pass level is a good thing if you want to see the mountains do well today.

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48 and moderate rain this morning. Looks like the back edge of the initial batch is about through. Picked up over .75” since midnight with moderate to heavy rain most the night.

Wind wasn’t very noticeable here. Might have been some gusts 30-35mph.

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Why is that not a good sign? We're in the warm sector, the fact that they are only up to pass level is a good thing if you want to see the mountains do well today.

When i checked the models/forecast yesterday, it seemed like the passes would be good throughout the day. It's not even 8am and the snow levels are at about 5000' already.

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19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just went out to measure.  9 inches, still snowing.  Big victory for the WRF and the UW high resolution ensembles and the high resolution NAM.  Big loss for the NWS and their automated forecasts, which have us less than 3 inches.

Leavenworth will be a winter wonderland this weekend. 

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Just now, dolt said:

When i checked the models/forecast yesterday, it seemed like the passes would be good throughout the day. It's not even 8am and the snow levels are at about 5000' already.

That's because right now they are in the warm sector of the storm. The passes will cool throughout the day.

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2 minutes ago, dolt said:

When i checked the models/forecast yesterday, it seemed like the passes would be good throughout the day. It's not even 8am and the snow levels are at about 5000' already.

The warmest part of the system is right now, they will be dropping later on.

It looks like the snow level is well below 5,000' judging by pass cams.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Willamette Pass and Santiam Pass are doing great this morning, considering we are in the “warm” part of the system.

 

68B5D936-BF0E-44D0-B609-D96EA726EDD5.png

Not looking good on the 26 pass though.

govt.thumb.jpg.08fd29a36fad301ee223dfb388a2610f.jpg

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Just now, Jesse said:

The warmest part of the system is right now, they will be dropping later on.

It looks like the snow level is well below 5,000' judging by pass cams.

I hope so. It would be a shame to have all of this moisture go to waste. The ski areas could really use a good season this year.

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Wind didn’t end up being enough to wake me up but the rain did. Local stations reported gusts in the low 30s nothing crazy. Storms next week will probably be more significant. Have picked up 0.54” since midnight to hit 2.68” for the month. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-42

Freezes-1

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-10.14”

Snowfall-0.0”

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

NAM entertains the possibility of another low striking the region tomorrow afternoon. Would likely contain another bout of localized stronger winds and a period of heavier rainfall and mountain snow.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

That low is in better position but it is also weaker than the one going though the region today

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2 minutes ago, dolt said:

I hope so. It would be a shame to have all of this moisture go to waste. The ski areas could really use a good season this year.

Moisture never goes to waste. It recharges the water table whether or not it falls as snow.

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4 minutes ago, dolt said:

Not looking good on the 26 pass though.

govt.thumb.jpg.08fd29a36fad301ee223dfb388a2610f.jpg

That’s the lowest pass over the entire Oregon cascades. And the snow level is probably just a little above it. Still easily at ski area elevation.

The higher passes of 26 look a little better.

D369447C-FE32-43D1-A991-0C0CF1A68F09.thumb.png.d058a934df3b7fc60a07589cef549968.png

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Fwiw, looks like your windstorm will arrive here Sunday. Let’s see what it’s made of.

Boundary layer winds look decent.

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Rain shadow finally falling apart up here. Only about 0.1" in the bucket in the last 24 hours. Looks like the Mt. Baker weather station is down currently. Would love to know how much snow they got overnight.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 0"

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Fwiw, looks like your windstorm will arrive here Sunday. Let’s see what it’s made of.

Boundary layer winds look decent.

Be carful! She lied to us on her profile!  She is underwhelming.  

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Rain shadow finally falling apart up here. Only about 0.1" in the bucket in the last 24 hours. Looks like the Mt. Baker weather station is down currently. Would love to know how much snow they got overnight.

Last report I saw at 4 am said 22" 

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3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Or if it moved North and east in the sweet spot giving the puget sound a huge windstorm! It wont do either but nice to dream.

A 954mb low in the sweetspot would be.......how do I even grasp that. Unthinkable.

Calling that a "huge windstorm" would be like calling a grizzly bear a "mean gopher."

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

A 954mb low in the sweetspot would be.......how do I even grasp that. Unthinkable.

Calling that a "huge windstorm" would be like calling a grizzly bear a "mean gopher."

Had to look at what the Columbus Day storm came in at...960mb. 

So yeah, that would be significant to say the least. 

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Had to look at what the Columbus Day storm came in at...960mb. 

So yeah, that would be significant to say the least. 

In terms of regionwide impact/s, yes but a one millibar difference would be like noticing the difference between 69 and 70 degrees. 

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A 954mb low in the sweetspot would be.......how do I even grasp that. Unthinkable.

Calling that a "huge windstorm" would be like calling a grizzly bear a "mean gopher."

I will pass on this one but still a part of me wants it’s .....SAD 

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Just now, jakerepp said:

Had to look at what the Columbus Day storm came in at...960mb. 

So yeah, that would be significant to say the least. 

I still have to think that the Columbus Day storm would beat it. The Columbus Day cyclone was a tightly-packed pinhole low that produced ungodly pressure gradients in the heels of a retreating high pressure system. And even still, it vastly overperformed its average potential.

The good thing about this storm is that the gradients are largely spread out along the coastline, save for the immediate vicinity surrounding the low, so that even in ground zero the pressure gradients wouldn't be skyrocketing outside of climatology.

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I still have to think that the Columbus Day storm would beat it. The Columbus Day cyclone was a tightly-packed pinhole low that produced ungodly pressure gradients in the heels of a retreating high pressure system. And even still, it vastly overperformed its average potential.

The good thing about this storm is that the gradients are largely spread out along the coastline, save for the immediate vicinity surrounding the low, so that even in ground zero the pressure gradients wouldn't be skyrocketing outside of climatology.

Oh absolutely. I have a hard time believing that storm could be bested. 

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I haven't seen the radar this active in a long time! Strange that this should be a foreign sight in late Fall.

 

202011131649.gif

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I still have to think that the Columbus Day storm would beat it. The Columbus Day cyclone was a tightly-packed pinhole low that produced ungodly pressure gradients in the heels of a retreating high pressure system. And even still, it vastly overperformed its average potential.

The good thing about this storm is that the gradients are largely spread out along the coastline, save for the immediate vicinity surrounding the low, so that even in ground zero the pressure gradients wouldn't be skyrocketing outside of climatology.

Yeah size matters..just not in usual direction. :lol:

The baroclinic gradient might be just as important. The big stuff won’t mix down without efficient momentum transfer. 

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This is a pretty cold rain I have to say. 37 and moderate rain. (KLMT says "Light rain" SMH)

So far only gusts in the mid-20's but I don't think I'm expecting a big wind here anyway.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Very heavy rain now!! Almost dark as night as well! A little spooky! 

Chris will be with you shortly.

I'm seeing that you ordered an "It's light here" comment, something downplaying current and upcoming weather events in a sort of half-assed way, and a mindless shoutout to 11/20/2020
 

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