November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think I remember tiger talking about the “south valley surprise” wind event a couple times. 

https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/February2002.html

Yup.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think I remember tiger talking about the “south valley surprise” wind event a couple times. 

https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/February2002.html

Wolf Read's article on it shows just how fascinating the event really was. Not only was it just a high wind event, it rivaled the Columbus Day storm in a few areas.

Winds of any strength weren't even mentioned in the morning AFD, not even for the coast.

And then it snowed in the South Valley as the CAA wrapped around its backside. Truly high-end event.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/February2002.html

Wolf Read's article on it shows just how fascinating the event really was. Not only was it just a high wind event, it rivaled the Columbus Day storm in a few areas.

Winds of any strength weren't even mentioned in the morning AFD, not even for the coast.

And then it snowed in the South Valley as the CAA wrapped around its backside. Truly high-end event.

It snowed up here in PDX on the north side of it. Very dynamic system. Yeah a high-end event for sure.

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

It snowed up here in PDX on the north side of it. Very dynamic system. Yeah a high-end event for sure.

Wow I will have to read it fully when I get a chance I read a lot of beginning of it. Pretty interesting stuff I didn’t know it was that intense. 

[Meatyorologist]

Interestingly, the Euro is about correct with the strength, but 100-200 miles too far east. Could add some juice to the system, but only so much in the way of wind potential. Blustery at times perhaps, maybe windy if all the cards fall in the right place. Developing situation.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Interestingly, the Euro is about correct with the strength, but 100-200 miles too far east. Could add some juice to the system, but only so much in the way of wind potential. Blustery at times perhaps, maybe windy if all the cards fall in the right place. Developing situation.

Here we go!

[snow_wizard]

The NWS is going very low key for the Seattle area.  Not even a wind advisory.  There is a mention of thundershowers for tomorrow though.  November actually isn't a bad bet for a thunderstorm day or two on average.

[Deweydog]

All rain here.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

All rain here.

12 degrees from a potential rain/snow mix here.

[seattleweatherguy]

37 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm... Water vapor imagery now shows really good development with a nice dry slot emerging. This low looks as if it may strengthen quickly with possible rapid cyclogenesis as it moves towards the Washington Coast. Viewing the loop it is very evident with that familiar 'comma' structure showing. Here we go!!!!

is it me or is that low more north than modeled at that point or maybe my eyes are bad?

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, seattleweatherguy said:

is it me or is that low more north than modeled at that point or maybe my eyes are bad?

It's definitely 20-50 miles more north than modeled. No surprises there.

[seattleweatherguy]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's definitely 20-50 miles more north than modeled. No surprises there.

Still do not think it will get north enough to create a massive windstorm, but maybe 45 mph winds? But I guess anything is possible now

[seattleweatherguy]

With poor model consistency how in the heck are we going to be able to see if something legit will hit us

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up here In Silverton we didn’t get any wind with the south valley special, but we did get snow, which was quite unexpected. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I suspect Seattle NWS issues Wind Advisories well before the morning shift.

00z GFS in 3 minutes

[Requiem]

Grain of salt but HRRR is quite strong with the southerly gusts over PDX— shows a slug of 45-60 mph gusts in the early morning hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Grain of salt but HRRR is quite strong with the southerly gusts over PDX— shows a slug of 45-60 mph gusts in the early morning hours.

Yup. HRRR is picking up on the developments on WV imagery. Here we go!!!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Grain of salt but HRRR is quite strong with the southerly gusts over PDX— shows a slug of 45-60 mph gusts in the early morning hours.

What about for the PS?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not expecting much from this but am still going to hope we get a good blow.

[FroYoBro]

Rain has started up here. Even if we don’t get any big gusts, we are about to get a bunch of rain in the next 24 hours. Should be nice November weather. 

[Gradient Keeper]

7:00 PM Imagery

Here we go!!!!

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What about for the PS?

Around 40-50 mph mostly, should get breezy at least 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS running. Looking towards Tuesday.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

7:00 PM Imagery

Here we go!!!!

Euro had the low south of the sound by this time. This is placed around Everett right now.

[Timmy Supercell]

In 2020 it takes till mid November to get an atmospheric river. 

We've seen these start in September when I was in highschool 

[Requiem]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Euro had the low south of the sound by this time. This is placed around Everett right now.

If I’m fathoming this right— euro has been too far east with development, correct?

[Gradient Keeper]

7:30 PM Boom!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

If I’m fathoming this right— euro has been too far east with development, correct?

By a hair. I might have overstated the longitudinal error a bit.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

This low is going to BOMB all the way to landfall.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Those are the 2 strongest frames.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen says he doesn’t know what the NWS is thinking. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

FWIW, the 00z GFS was about 3mb stronger and looked a little more put together than the 18z.

Now we are to the point though of relying more on observations and less on the models.

Not really expecting much for Puget Sound but hope you PDX'ers can at least score something out of this thing.

Yeah if we re lucky we can score a power outage... 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS is stronger and closer with the Tuesday low. This could be the run that establishes the "rug-pull" situation.

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen says he doesn’t know what the NWS is thinking. 

What did he say/predict? He hasn't updated his blog yet.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark Nelsen says he doesn’t know what the NWS is thinking. 

In regards to tomorrow’s potential  wind?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3