November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

The one guy driving the truck jumped into the boat to see if he could give some pointers to the boat driver but he never made it back to his truck. So truck sat there being hit wave after wave.  Trailer was pushed sideways 

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s one thing I like about living near the sound is the wind can absolutely rip through here some days. Hope they’re all good. I went outside earlier and it was quite windy. 

I’m quite cautious when launching my kayak when storms are near.  Although we could surf a wave right up onto the ramp.   I’m sure we would get a nice wave rolling over us as we try to flee the yak to pull it up though.   

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

I’m quite cautious when launching my kayak when storms are near.  Although we could surf a wave right up onto the ramp.   I’m sure we would get a nice wave rolling over us as we try to flee the yak to pull it up though.   

I usually don’t even put my kayak in the water when the waves are more than a foot big. I try to go for the days where the winds aren’t more than 15-20mph. 

[Timmy Supercell]

One decent shot at snow Saturday. We'll see what happens, it sounds like 5000+ elevations get the brunt, but I'll keep an eye out.

[Omegaraptor]

28” base depth at Meadows, Timberline has not updated. Another foot or so and it might be enough to open some lifts.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

28” base depth at Meadows, Timberline has not updated. Another foot or so and it might be enough to open some lifts.

Should get there within the week as long as it does not warm up

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Should get there within the week as long as it does not warm up

It’ll warm up very briefly then crash right back down again. Should create a pack of wet Cascade Concrete, and then some additional snow on top of that should secure a start to ski season. C’MON!

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

The one guy driving the truck jumped into the boat to see if he could give some pointers to the boat driver but he never made it back to his truck. So truck sat there being hit wave after wave.  Trailer was pushed sideways 

That truck is getting a salt water bath! Should be nice and rusty in the not too distant future! 

[MossMan]

39 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

After that burst of winds earlier I went down to Redondo to do my walk. Upon arriving I saw a boat out fishing.  I knew their was a small craft advisory posted but looked like they were doing ok until they decided to come in.  That’s when the story began! 
Took the video of their first attempt.  They tried many other attempts but just wasn’t going to happen as the wind and waves increased.  They finally tried to tie off on the pillars and just sit to wait it out.  I finally made the decision to call 911 for them.  Their was also another fella there and he was on the phone with them as well ( he turned out to be a paramedic).  
long story short they ended up using divers to get some gas out to them as they were almost out.  Then they journeyed towards Des Moines’s Marina which is shelter.  Hope they made it !  
winds were in the 30-40 mph category and crazy big waves at times.

In conditions like that you have to be extremely experienced with boating and loading onto trailers, and judging by those pics unless they got that little boat on the trailer and up the ramp extremely quickly (under 15 seconds or so)  the waves slamming the back of the boat would have swamped it very quickly. You basically have 1 attempt to get it right and you need to be up that ramp faster than lightning! 

[Blizzard777]

What was up with Portland earlier! Perhaps Phil can explain !

The Philadelphia experiment?

[SouthHillFrosty]

36 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

The one guy driving the truck jumped into the boat to see if he could give some pointers to the boat driver but he never made it back to his truck. So truck sat there being hit wave after wave.  Trailer was pushed sideways 

People don't respect ocean/rivers enough. They are way more powerful then they think

[Blizzard777]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That truck is getting a salt water bath! Should be nice and rusty in the not too distant future! 

Three hours of it! Windows open

They were electric windows and he had the key so we could do nothing 

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

People don't respect ocean/rivers enough. They are way more powerful then they think

Agree 1000 %

[Gradient Keeper]

The wind woke me up around 5:45 AM. Gusts around 6:30 AM were quite hefty 40mph+. I lost a few limbs off the fir tree. I just now have time to look at all 12z runs. No real big changes. A lot of rain, mountain snows, although the EURO is more bullish than the GFS with that. Still watching Monday night-Tuesday morning as a very deep low may develop offshore. Depending on the exact trough axis position should a sub 970mb low spin up and swing closer to us we'll have to watch that closely. I don't see any signs of a good/amplified block yet. I would say so far this November is playing out like most 1st year Ninas. Real Winter kicks in late December or mid-January usually in 1st year Ninas. Who knows though. Onto 00z!

[Tyler Mode]

After the heavy rain of this morning, it was really a great day with scattered heavy showers and wind with plenty of sun in between.  1.24" for the day so far with 3.49" for the month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Was this posted?

[Meatyorologist]

44 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The wind woke me up around 5:45 AM. Gusts around 6:30 AM were quite hefty 40mph+. I lost a few limbs off the fir tree. I just now have time to look at all 12z runs. No real big changes. A lot of rain, mountain snows, although the EURO is more bullish than the GFS with that. Still watching Monday night-Tuesday morning as a very deep low may develop offshore. Depending on the exact trough axis position should a sub 970mb low spin up and swing closer to us we'll have to watch that closely. I don't see any signs of a good/amplified block yet. I would say so far this November is playing out like most 1st year Ninas. Real Winter kicks in late December or mid-January usually in 1st year Ninas. Who knows though. Onto 00z!

For a winter that is saving its stuff for later, this is going tremendously.

[TacomaWaWx]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For a winter that is saving its stuff for later, this is going tremendously.

So far this cold season has been better than the last one and we’re just getting started. 

[TacomaWaWx]

50/44 today. 0.56” of rain this morning with gusts of 30-40mph a lot of the day. We did have a decent amount of sunshine here this afternoon here SE of the Olympic mountains. 

[Gradient Keeper]

21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For a winter that is saving its stuff for later, this is going tremendously.

It really is. The next two weeks it seems we'll see periods of NWLY flow for more rains and mountain snows. No signs of endless ridging over us either.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

50/44 today. 0.56” of rain this morning with gusts of 30-40mph a lot of the day. We did have a decent amount of sunshine here this afternoon here SE of the Olympic mountains. 

Exactly the same temperature range here, with 0.63".

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

It really is. The next two weeks it seems we'll see periods of NWLY flow for more rains and mountain snows. No signs of endless ridging over us either.

It is going pretty much like I expected it to go, given La Niña conditions. I do expect there to be episodes of lowland snow later. Nothing epic, more like climo averages.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is going pretty much like I expected it to go, given La Niña conditions. I do expect there to be episodes of lowland snow later. Nothing epic, more like climo averages.

Really if you reflect on how October and the 1st two weeks of November have progressed we should be very happy with things. A few cold shots. Nice mountain snows. Powerhouse westerly jet and perhaps a few deep lows to track. This has been far more interesting and active than previous years. The next two weeks it seems we'll see periods of NWLY flow for more rains and mountain snows. No signs of endless ridging over us either. Can't rule out pre-Thanksgiving snow for someone. C'MON!!!!

[Blizzard777]

.54 precipitation here

50/43 currently 46 with winds 6-23 mph 

[Timmy Supercell]

Bam as soon as it got dark the snow came, wind blowing it too. I will be up until 12-1am so I'll keep track of any accumulations. For now it seems wet.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Meadows snow totals glitching a bit. 172”???

[Omegaraptor]

47 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

So far this cold season has been better than the last one and we’re just getting started. 

Pretty 07-08 like pattern right now it seems. Then again, we could barely manage any precip from cold fronts (read: any cold fronts at all) last Dec-Jan aside from that one storm in mid January.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Pretty 07-08 like pattern right now it seems. Then again, we could barely manage any precip from cold fronts (read: any cold fronts at all) last Dec-Jan aside from that one storm in mid January.

And was Fall 07-08 this D**n dry down here? I basically did not have a transition season.

[Blizzard777]

16 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Bam as soon as it got dark the snow came, wind blowing it too. I will be up until 12-1am so I'll keep track of any accumulations. For now it seems wet.

Wind blown snow! The best

[Phil]

5 hours ago, iFred said:

Kind of looks like a reset. Some might see the 500mb heights building in the SE, the positive NAO, and emergence of a NPac ridge at the tail end of the run as a setup to something possibly fun in December. Some might even say that this is all in line with multiple seasonal forecasts that painted once-in-a-generation Nina strength with strong and consistent signals for at least decent DJF troughing.

Well +NAO would destructively interfere with -PNA (theoretically) beyond 4-5 days, so that wouldn’t be good, but there’s a growing signal for a Urals High/PV weakening event in December. MJO crossing IPWP would fit that sequence as well.

So I’d highlight December 10-20 as the first opportunity for legitimate winter weather out there.

[snow_wizard]

I was just looking at the long range models for this winter and all of them paint the same picture.  GOA ridge / NW trough.  The CFS and Canadian like January for the coldest anomalies and the ECMWF likes February.  It's pretty impressive to see them all with a cold look though.  Tropical Tidbits has a feature that gives a composite for the last 12 CFS runs and it clearly shows January being cold.  Big anoms for a 12 run average.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well +NAO destructively interferes with -PNA (theoretically) beyond 4-5 days, so that wouldn’t be good, but there’s a growing signal for a Urals High/PV weakening event in December. MJO crossing IPWP would fit that sequence as well.

So I’d highlight December 10-20 as the first legit opportunity of the winter out there.

Yeah...I have grown to appreciate -NAO more than I used to.  Works great to build ridge bridges across the Arctic in combo with a -PNA.  

I'm actually pleased with the observed weather we have been seeing so far.  Some solid cold snaps, but nothing too crazy.  It's good that it's holding back for now.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Lightning to our north!   Looks like its in Abbotsford

[snow_wizard]

This wind event came in even lower than I thought it would.  Barely anything fell from the tress today in my area.  Usually even a moderate SW wind event brings down a fair amount of small branches.  Pretty chilly out there considering we have pretty strong onshore flow and a mixed atmosphere right now.  Currently 43 here.

[Meatyorologist]

No wonder I got nearly nothing at my house! Perfectly within that Olympic wind shadow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Lightning to our north!   Looks like its in Abbotsford

Looks like it’s heading to the SE, so will pass to our east. So far, nobody from Abby has chimed in on the Canadian forum about it.

Update: Some responses now. They’re saying the t-storm was dramatic but short-lived. One report of it briefly turning to snow.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like it’s heading to the SE, so will pass to our east. So far, nobody from Abby has chimed in on the Canadian forum about it.

Update: Some responses now. They’re saying the t-storm was dramatic but short-lived. One report of it briefly turning to snow.

That sounds pretty cool.  I think this has been a very well rounded November so far.  No complaints from me.

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No wonder I got nearly nothing at my house! Perfectly within that Olympic wind shadow.

I was in Auburn today and it was fairly impressive there.  Looks like it was lighter up here.

[MossMan]

Was quite a bit windier today than I thought it was going to be, I have quite a clean up to do after this westerly windstorm. Still gusty out there but the power is back on. 

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was quite a bit windier today than I thought it was going to be, I have quite a clean up to do after this westerly windstorm. Still gusty out there but the power is back on. 

Hopefully these showers increase in coverage before I sleep. Just when it was picking up it all dried up.