November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Tyler Mode]

Looking back, my pressure reading of 29.31" is the lowest reading for me since February 14th, 2019. 

[jcmcgaffey]

55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No wonder I got nearly nothing at my house! Perfectly within that Olympic wind shadow.

Was thinking the same thing here. Pretty much no wind during the last day or so.

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~ FRIDAY NIGHT MODEL RIDING ~

00z GFS Day 1

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Day 2

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Day 3

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Day 4

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HR 90 There is a tight gradient couplet with the wave quickly passing north. This would affect the Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley. Real brief, quick hitter burst of winds. WRF may reveal this in greater detail.

[BLI snowman]

Up to 1.35" on the day here. Wettest day of the year so far.

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Day 5

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

averages.

Really if you reflect on how October and the 1st two weeks of November have progressed we should be very happy with things. A few cold shots. Nice mountain snows. Powerhouse westerly jet and perhaps a few deep lows to track. This has

Nice to see the snow levels coming down below the passes again by the middle of next week.

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Day 6

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice to see the snow levels coming down below the passes again by the middle of next week.

Yeah for sure. This next trough may barrel down over us too.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I have grown to appreciate -NAO more than I used to.  Works great to build ridge bridges across the Arctic in combo with a -PNA.  

I'm actually pleased with the observed weather we have been seeing so far.  Some solid cold snaps, but nothing too crazy.  It's good that it's holding back for now.

Euro 46 day pna

NAO

[GHweatherChris]

Holy hail!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Holy hail!

Oh?

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Day 7

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Day 8 Interesting high-latitude ridge/bridge...

[GHweatherChris]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Oh?

Just had a quick but heavy hail shower.

[Dave]

It's a bit snowy on Mt Hood at the moment. One of the cooler tripcheck captures I've seen.

 

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00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Euro 46 day pna

NAO

Keep in mind the fact that ensemble means generally fail to pick up red noise processes (or do so unrealistically) at-range. They’re not a tool that should be used to gauge teleconnective relationships or feedbacks, IMO.

It’s no coincidence the 2008-12 -PMM/-PDO era leaned -NAO/-PNA on balance, while the subsequent transition to +PMM/+PDO in 2014-18 leaned +NAO/+PDO.

Same goes with -PDO era from the 1950s-1970s. And flip to +PDO in the 1980s-early 2000s. Former leaned -NAO/-PNA on balance, latter leaned +NAO/+PNA.

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Holy hail!

Meh...It’s not 11/20/20. Next! 

[Phil]

1) PDO vs NAO

2) PNA vs NAO.
 

 

Clearly imperfect in the nearer term. But in the longer run, they constructively interfere, contrary to much of the rhetoric.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42F and showery. Nice night!

[GHweatherChris]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Meh...It’s not 11/20/20. Next! 

It will be in a week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Long Range GEM gets interesting. Big ole fat block develops.

Day 7-10 GIF

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Long range GFS on the other hand...

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Long range GFS on the other hand...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like the models let us down. Again. 

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00z ECMWF Day 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yay EC is working on WB!!

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a trace, then dried out again. Just enough to glaze roads.

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Day 2

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Day 3

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Day 4

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Day 5 Possible cut-off, Kona?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Euro has the Tuesday low at 972 going into North Vancouver Island

 

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Euro has the Tuesday low at 972 going into North Vancouver Island

 

Yep. Similar to the 00z GFS, a fairly tight gradient couplet moves over western OR, coastal WA. With a trough axis that deep and close to 130 W, a lot of possibilities and potential is ahead for perhaps a major wind storm, multiple brief events with vorticity lobes rotating northward.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Very messy