November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Tri-Cities ends up a snow desert on that map. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Think it's a safe bet that no dry month occurs this winter like '16-'17? 

Jan/Dec 2011 were jokes despite those seasons bringing great snowpack for the mountains.

[Dave]

3 hours ago, Jesse said:

You are this morning’s dolt.

You probably missed this comment I made a few days ago that mentioned that a bit of rain on top of an early snowpack isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Think it's a safe bet that no dry month occurs this winter like '16-'17? 

Jan/Dec 2011 were jokes despite those seasons bring great for the mountains.

I’ll bet at least 2 of the next 4 months (Dec-Mar) end up drier than average, regionally.

I’ll also wager at least 3 of those 4 end up colder than average, as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Think it's a safe bet that no dry month occurs this winter like '16-'17? 

Jan/Dec 2011 were jokes despite those seasons bringing great snowpack for the mountains.

December 2016 and January 2017 actually had below normal precip here. 

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Tri-Cities ends up a snow desert on that map. 

NW flow = no precip for Dry Cities

[SouthHillFrosty]

Model cherry picking but...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Model cherry picking but...

Someone posted that same map on the NB Facebook page today.    I assume that is an east wind event.     Probably won't verify... but the trees out here are able to withstand very strong wind from that direction. 

[umadbro]

Just hit the 2" mark since Thursday evening. 3.95" on the month.

[Timmy Supercell]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 2016 and January 2017 actually had below normal precip here. 

I forget what my rain/snow equivalents totaled each month in that one, still had 4 consecutive at-or-above in the snowfall department, which is actually the only time I've seen that since coming to the area. The months I namedropped had nearly 0 snow and maybe a couple rainfalls.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a big shot in the arm coming for the Nina again.  Kind of interesting the big trade wind bursts have resulted in less favorable weather patterns for us.  Once this burst runs out we may see another opportunity for a big GOA block.

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF seems to be hinting at a chilly inversion setting up later next week.  It wouldn't be November without seeing at least a brief period of that type of weather.  If it's correct we will be seeing more freezing low temps in a number of places.

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Model cherry picking but...

I can't figure out what that map is trying to say.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll bet at least 2 of the next 4 months (Dec-Mar) end up drier than average, regionally.

I’ll also wager at least 3 of those 4 end up colder than average, as well.

Sounds wonderful!  Drier than normal still leaves the door open for snow during the cold periods given how wet normal is.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

From Jaya:

NWWashingtonWX

 

@wx_washington

Notice that the strong wind associated with the late Tue/Wed system isn't from the monster low offshore, but from a triple point low that punches in from the SSW to the SE of that low. These are hard to forecast. When they occur, they pack a punch. #wawx #orwx #marinewx

[Timmy Supercell]

Bigger flakes are falling, but once again wet snow

[Blizzard777]

49 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Model cherry picking but...

 

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't figure out what that map is trying to say.

If we were golfing I would shoot for the flag  ️

[High Desert Mat?]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like a big shot in the arm coming for the Nina again.  Kind of interesting the big trade wind bursts have resulted in less favorable weather patterns for us.  Once this burst runs out we may see another opportunity for a big GOA block.

 

Don’t know how to read this. Is blue good or bad? Asking for a friend. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe some eye candy on the druncle?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

990mb is decent. Going to make things interesting.

[FroYoBro]

Rain.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

From Jaya:

NWWashingtonWX

 

@wx_washington

Notice that the strong wind associated with the late Tue/Wed system isn't from the monster low offshore, but from a triple point low that punches in from the SSW to the SE of that low. These are hard to forecast. When they occur, they pack a punch. #wawx #orwx #marinewx

I think the Hanukah Eve Storm had a triple point involved.  So called poisonous tail.

[Jesse]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ll bet at least 2 of the next 4 months (Dec-Mar) end up drier than average, regionally.

I’ll also wager at least 3 of those 4 end up colder than average, as well.

Yuck, last thing we need is more drier than average weather.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like another chilly max today.  48 / 39 for the range here today and now down to 45 with the rain commencing.  Given the amount of easterly / duration of easterly gradient forecast with this front some very low snow levels could briefly hit the area.

Today was my 9th consecutive high below 50.  Pretty hard to pull off this early in the season.

[El_Nina]

Getting some moderate rain the last hour or so. Have picked up an additional 0.06" already. 45°

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52/39 today. Not too shabby.

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the Hanukah Eve Storm had a triple point involved.  So called poisonous tail.

Interesting I'm just now learning of this feature. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yuck, last thing we need is more drier than average weather.

It could be cold with a decent amount of lowland snow though.  We have been plenty wet up here, but I know you guys could use it.  Some big time -PNA winters can end up quite wet too.  Jan 1950 being the most amazing example.  Even if the core of the winter ends up dry I suspect the late winter will feature a lot of cold zonal flow.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Interesting I'm just now learning of this feature. 

It's also called an occluded front or fontal occlusion.  The triple point is where the cold front trailing a surface low actually catches up to the warm front in advance of the low.

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yuck, last thing we need is more drier than average weather.

Supposedly you can have a drier than average month translate to a snowier than average month.

I saw two of them in '16-'17. lol

Which makes me question if snow is always a 10:1 ratio on precip. I'm not sure how 29.50" snow goes into 1.5". 

[Jesse]

2cold2rain?

[snow_wizard]

Down to 44 here now.  I suspect some people on the forum will see some flakes mix in this evening.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Supposedly you can have a drier than average month translate to a snowier than average month.

I saw two of them in '16-'17. lol

Which makes me question if snow is always a 10:1 ratio on precip. I'm not sure how 29.50" snow goes into 1.5". 

In really cold weather ratios can go 20 or even 30 to 1.  Even Seattle has had storms bring 25 to 1 or so.

[El_Nina]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 44 here now.  I suspect some people on the forum will see some flakes mix in this evening.

Snow levels should be going up to 5 or 6,000 feet tonight. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

In really cold weather ratios can go 20 or even 30 to 1.  Even Seattle has had storms bring 25 to 1 or so.

Figured so. The Jan 2017 snowstorm was a lot colder than my usual storm. It was in the teens during the whole thing.

And in March I'm sure I've seen 7-8:1 ratios. Early Spring snows are very wet, and one of the reasons they melt so fast probably.

[MossMan]

Perfect timing...I had just finished windstorm clean up #4 or so when the rain started! Currently 40 degrees and raining. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Snow levels should be going up to 5 or 6,000 feet tonight. 

I meant up here during the sustained period where we have an easterly component to the surface pressure gradient.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I meant up here during the sustained period where we have an easterly component to the surface pressure gradient.

Uh, do you mean the forum ski enthusiasts above 3000'?

I don't think too many Puget Sound area people will be seeing flakes today, Jim.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS isn't terrible.  Some quiet chilly interludes and a couple of periods conducive to mountain snows.

Down to 43 here now.