November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er .... Hoping this becomes Day 5'er, or 4'er by Wednesday'er, or Thursday'er.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF has a block up to and across the pole at day 10.  Really impressive to see that so early in the season.  The block is pretty far west, but still forces a cold trough over us.  The blocking theme is really locking in so far this season.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF temperature maps still indicate chilly temps Friday through Sunday.

[Requiem]

Worth watching that secondary low, for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Worth watching that secondary low, for sure.

Models are trying to resolve that it's a complex setup. I think models are all going to come around to a quick hitting 2-3 hour wind storm and it could be quite significant. We don't get many chances like this and certainly not every Fall or Winter.

6z NAM in 4 minutes

6z GFS in 1 hour 56 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF has a block up to and across the pole at day 10.  Really impressive to see that so early in the season.  The block is pretty far west, but still forces a cold trough over us.  The blocking theme is really locking in so far this season.

Arctic air also spills quickly back into Northern BC.

 

After two Hurricane Force lows one set to move through Queen Charlotte Sound by morning, another Tuesday along ~130 W, and a possible regional wind storm, maybe that flips the pattern with a big change back to blocking in 8-10 days.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW nearly every CFS run shows us getting blasted with cold in January.  Yesterdays 0z run was insane with one cold wave after the other.  With that model consistency is essential for any accuracy at all and we certainly have that.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM 3km Tuesday morning has a decent wind storm moving quickly north up the Willamette Valley. The NAM is just out of range to see what occurs Salem northward. 12z run will though.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 12 minutes. C'MON!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift! On my phone. All 4 kiddos asleep in the livingroom lol. Getting my card finalized for the morning. Gonna be a good day

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z NAM 3km Tuesday morning has a decent wind storm moving quickly north up the Willamette Valley. The NAM is just out of range to see what occurs Salem northward. 12z run will though.

 

 

The Coast and part of Vancouver Island could be hit REALLY hard.  In the Seattle area it's very hard for us to get major winds when the low center stays west of the Olympic Mountains.  That is likely less true with the Willamette Valley.

[snow_wizard]

One last note about the CFS.  It is probably the best I've ever seen it for a cold NW winter.  There are sites that do a composite of many different runs and they are solidly cold for us for much of the winter.  In fact the maps currently have us below normal every month from Dec through May.  The theme seems to be a pretty significant N to S temperature anomaly gradient and those winters are often more favorable for snow than ones with an E to W gradient.

[snow_wizard]

Where has TT been BTW?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Where has TT been BTW?

Good question. I'm wondering that also.

[Requiem]

Secondary low is further north this run but still gives the valley a quick burst of gusty winds. Obviously will still change but I like how many models do this.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Secondary low is further north this run but still gives the valley a quick burst of gusty winds. Obviously will still change but I like how many models do this.

Is it? I fell asleep there for a bit. Need the trough axis closer.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Man, listening to this music & watching this possible windstorm pattern unfolding while feeling incredibly confident great stuff is in store for us in Dec-Jan is tremendous.

[TacomaWaWx]

37 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Man, listening to this music & watching this possible windstorm pattern unfolding while feeling incredibly confident great stuff is in store for us in Dec-Jan is tremendous.

This windstorm set up kind of reminds me of the wind event that swept the south sound 1/6/19. It was one of those storms where it went from relative calm to 60mph winds back to calm all within 2 hours roughly. It was a quick wind event this one could be similar to that. 

[TacomaWaWx]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Where has TT been BTW?

I think I saw him post yesterday. He’s not a rain/stormy fan really so once the sun comes back id imagine we will see more of him. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Wound up with 0.58” yesterday and another 0.05” so far this morning to hit 3.33” for November. Looks like some more rains on the way as well. 

[Meatyorologist]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This windstorm set up kind of reminds me of the wind event that swept the south sound 1/6/19. It was one of those storms where it went from relative calm to 60mph winds back to calm all within 2 hours roughly. It was a quick wind event this one could be similar to that. 

My roommate and I walked down to Lake Washington at Magnuson Park to experience the winds. They were gusting to 65 right on the water, enough for them to support your weight when you leaned into them. Definitely had a SE tilt to that wind direction. One of my favorite weather memories, outside of the painful pelts the rain gave during the gusts .

[TacomaWaWx]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

My roommate and I walked down to Lake Washington at Magnuson Park to experience the winds. They were gusting to 65 right on the water, enough for them to support your weight when you leaned into them. Definitely had a SE tilt to that wind direction. One of my favorite weather memories, outside of the painful pelts the rain gave during the gusts .

Yeah I remember that one pretty well. Winds picked up real fast peaked for about an hour and then they died down rapidly on the backside. I think it was totally calm at 12:30am that night then by 1am it was cranking hard here and from 2-215am the wind really calmed down quickly.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I remember that one pretty well. Winds picked up real fast peaked for about an hour and then they died down rapidly on the backside. I think it was totally calm at 12:30am that night then by 1am it was cranking hard here and from 2-215am the wind really calmed down quickly.

Yeah, that was a really cool one. It was dead calm here, even with 50mph gusts being reported in Federal Way.

Then, out of nowhere, the air kicked up a bit with a 20mph or so gust. Then a 30mph. Then a 40mph. And within 15 mins, branches were flying in the air.

[Meatyorologist]

I counted up the ensemble member of the Euro suite, and found that 25% of them give Seattle a major blow (55mph+), with only 10% higher than 65mph. None skipped out on a windstorm entirely (>30mph gusts), save for one which peaked at 28mph.

Very interestingly, I found that the timing on this system varies wildly, anywhere from 6:00am Tuesday to 6:00am Wednesday. Most were around 3-9:00pm on Tuesday.

[Meatyorologist]

Only 10% of the GFS ensemble members even crack 50mph, with one peaking at around 60mph. Huge inconsistencies in timing, much like the Euro ensemble. Very low-res, too.

[Jbolin]

4 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Models are trying to resolve that it's a complex setup. I think models are all going to come around to a quick hitting 2-3 hour wind storm and it could be quite significant. We don't get many chances like this and certainly not every Fall or Winter.

6z NAM in 4 minutes

6z GFS in 1 hour 56 minutes

I think it was January two years ago where a sucker event came through the central sound, knocked out power to over 100K in a little less than 3 hours. There was (what seemed like) endless power flashes from nearly every direction. 

The whole event last barely 5 hours from start to finish but for nearly 2.5 hours straight the wind gusts were repeatedly exceeding over 70+mph (especially in elevated/non - windbreak area/s). 

I'm wondering if the models are struggling to handle this possible feature due to some possible enhancement of the BBO/poisonous tail?

[Weather1011]

Strong wind woke me up around 43 to 45 mph for the past 45 minutes 

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow, coming down in buckets last hour or so in K-Falls! I hear it on the roof its so heavy.

I like it personally. We didn't get enough rain this Fall. It was doing this in 2016 about a dozen times before we transitioned to snow. 

[Timmy Supercell]

37 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro shows practically a region-wide windstorm. As others have mentioned, it's very quick hitting and only lasts a couple hours overall. 

NWS Medford is even onboard with a nice wind event in southern OR. Maybe my place too.

Seems like also the chances are greater as this gets closer.

[Fircrest]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Where has TT been BTW?

He posted in the politics thread 10 minutes ago.

[Timmy Supercell]

Deer in da rain, bobbing for apples before the winter fully arrives. I think they're glad it hasn't blasted us yet; apples still falling off our trees.

 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Where has TT been BTW?

I don't have much to add... pretty standard November weather.     I am just following along with people tracking specific events. 

[TT-SEA]

There was snow here on this morning 5 years ago...

 

[Jesse]

No big warm up in the Cascades yet, as of this morning. Even Willamette Pass down south is still barely above freezing.

[Jesse]

Mostly cloudy and 50 here this morning with a low of 44 just after midnight, before the southerlies kicked in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There was snow here on this morning 5 years ago...

 

That was the earliest snow since I have lived here. We got about 1.5” that morning. It went from about 60 with heavy rain to snow and 32 in a couple hours.

[snow maniac]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro shows practically a region-wide windstorm. As others have mentioned, it's very quick hitting and only lasts a couple hours overall. 

Looks like Hurricane ridge will live up to its name.

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was the earliest snow since I have lived here. We got about 1.5” that morning. It went from about 60 with heavy rain to snow and 32 in a couple hours.

My earliest first 1-2" was on 11/05/2011 here over a period of a decade. Next earliest was 11/09/2010.
I'm sure the snowpack this year in southern Oregon is also the earliest since that group of winters as well.

In 2015 I think my first measurable snow was 4" on 11/25.