Jump to content
The Weather Forums

November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

Posted Images

54 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Jesses a good guy. Occasionally not very often he can get a bit carried away but most of the time his comments are meant to be funny and not insulting. Kind of blew up on Jesse about a month ago but came to realize his comment wasn’t meant to be rude...I can understand people thinking his comments are intended to be rude and it’s hard to tell online what people mean. I don’t think his comments he made today were meant in an abrasive way either. Like I said jesses alright. 

Thanks buddy. I am joking maybe 95% of the time and actually mean it rude like 5%. I do need to work on the 5%.

Even the downvoting thing is often done in a somewhat tongue n cheek way. It seems to get taken pretty seriously by some though.

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1
  • Downvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Thanks buddy. I am joking maybe 95% of the time and actually mean it rude like 5%. I do need to work on the 5%.

Even the downvoting this is often done in a somewhat tongue n cheek way. It seems to get taken pretty seriously by some though.

LOL

  • Downvote 1
  • Troll 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS looks like it gets a bit wetter toward the last 4 or 5 days.  The maps I have show the jetstream and 24 hour precip, and it looks like the jetstream takes aim at us.  24 hour precip maps get progressively wetter during the same time frame.

Well that's promising. I don't have access to Day 11-15. So perhaps just a blip in the Nina pattern. I don't mind if we have some transitory ridging at times. If we do see a period of ridging I also wouldn't mind some fake cold/inversions. We did not see a single Columbia Basin cold pool develop last late Fall/Winter. Very rare.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

What about upvotes?
Positive Yelp reviews?
Uplifting Reddit reactions?


 

I prefer strongly worded letters sent through the United States Postal Service or landline telephone calls. Harkens back to colder and happier times.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
  • Angry 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Well that's promising. I don't have access to Day 11-15. So perhaps just a blip in the Nina pattern. I don't mind if we have some transitory ridging at times. If we do see a period of ridging I also wouldn't mind some fake cold/inversions. We did not see a single Columbia Basin cold pool develop last late Fall/Winter. Very rare.

 

Goes from this;

image.thumb.png.dc9ea0c4e2402d36867fb6a94a68025f.png

To this:

image.thumb.png.678b3ffdce1bd5225eb30c914d790833.png

Still not cold, but the ridge moves East. And snow continues to pile up in the mountains.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Phil said:

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough in this regime to circumvent detection in ensemble means, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

ūüėĪ

  • Popcorn 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, fubario said:

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

He is busy watching Fox News. 

  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

My goodness those EURO weeklies were fun! Thanks for posting all!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, fubario said:

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

I ‚̧ that guy and his maps.

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, fubario said:

interesting. would've guessed cnn

I think he watches both. So he can be perpetually outraged. 

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

Phil, when will the long range conglomerations hit my house?

Link to post
Share on other sites

44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions.

  • Excited 1
  • Popcorn 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 26¬†(Most recent: Dec 29, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions.

I really feel like we need a dude with bloodshot eyes giving a thumbs up react.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

ūüė¨


The EPS is even stronger. Lol.

However, good news is the EPS mean has a *weaker than average* vortex by New Years. ūüėĪ

image.thumb.jpeg.abbb0fb21e41e35917d96da933ea68df.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Obviously a bifurcation in there somewhere. One EPS cluster continues with the zonal regime/lack of wave driving, the other cluster attacks the vortex and develops some legit blocking by mid-winter.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Phil said:


I was just about to post that. Yikes is right. The EPS is even stronger.

However, good news is the EPS has a *weaker than average* vortex by January. ūüėĪ

image.thumb.jpeg.abbb0fb21e41e35917d96da933ea68df.jpeg

I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe.

Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. 

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better.

  • Like 8

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 26¬†(Most recent: Dec 29, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MossMan said:

In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. 

I don’t dislike you but you can annoy me pretty bad sometimes. I’m sure the feeling is mutual.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe.

Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members.

Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though.

If it‚Äôs a super massive black hole sitting over¬†the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Ni√Īa as a low pass regime. It‚Äôs uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Phil said:

Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though.

If it‚Äôs a super massive black hole sitting over¬†the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Ni√Īa as a low pass regime. It‚Äôs uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case.

Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though.

I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come.

  • Like 3
  • Snow 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though.

I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come.

Oh I agree with you, generally speaking. My forecast this winter is cold NW/warm SE for a DJF seasonal mean. And I’m sticking with that.

Question is, are we going to see something ‚Äúfreakish‚ÄĚ upstairs this winter, as well? I have to admit the complete lack of heat flux thus far has me on edge (only comparable EP analogs are 1999 and 2011)¬†but it‚Äôs very early, and there‚Äôs essentially zero sample size.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

48 and sitting at my low so far for the day 44*

All those fun showers today sort of fell apart over my area. Although I still got a few good showers along with some gusty winds.

Sitting at 4.43 inches of rain for the month.  

5.41‚ÄĚ on the month here just a few miles west.¬†

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-25.42‚ÄĚ

Snowfall-Tr.

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

5.41‚ÄĚ on the month here just a few miles west¬†

Watching those nice juicy shower approach from the south always seem to slide by just to my West, East or break apart.  As you know my gauge hasn’t been reliable as of late either. Tried moving it to 2 new location and the same.  So I’ve been using a neighbors readings as theirs is more inline with the local area.  Your still kicking my BuTt in the rain business though!

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...