November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[JBolin 887]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I like Jesse.

There aren’t enough downvotes on our warming planet that can change that.

What about upvotes?
Positive Yelp reviews?
Uplifting Reddit reactions?


 

[Jesse 7705]

54 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Jesses a good guy. Occasionally not very often he can get a bit carried away but most of the time his comments are meant to be funny and not insulting. Kind of blew up on Jesse about a month ago but came to realize his comment wasn’t meant to be rude...I can understand people thinking his comments are intended to be rude and it’s hard to tell online what people mean. I don’t think his comments he made today were meant in an abrasive way either. Like I said jesses alright. 

Thanks buddy. I am joking maybe 95% of the time and actually mean it rude like 5%. I do need to work on the 5%.

Even the downvoting thing is often done in a somewhat tongue n cheek way. It seems to get taken pretty seriously by some though.

[Weather1011 1121]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Thanks buddy. I am joking maybe 95% of the time and actually mean it rude like 5%. I do need to work on the 5%.

Even the downvoting this is often done in a somewhat tongue n cheek way. It seems to get taken pretty seriously by some though.

LOL

[DJ Droppin 8213]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS looks like it gets a bit wetter toward the last 4 or 5 days.  The maps I have show the jetstream and 24 hour precip, and it looks like the jetstream takes aim at us.  24 hour precip maps get progressively wetter during the same time frame.

Well that's promising. I don't have access to Day 11-15. So perhaps just a blip in the Nina pattern. I don't mind if we have some transitory ridging at times. If we do see a period of ridging I also wouldn't mind some fake cold/inversions. We did not see a single Columbia Basin cold pool develop last late Fall/Winter. Very rare.

 

[Deweydog 13278]

25 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

What about upvotes?
Positive Yelp reviews?
Uplifting Reddit reactions?


 

I prefer strongly worded letters sent through the United States Postal Service or landline telephone calls. Harkens back to colder and happier times.

[van city 378]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

I think people need to relax and not try to get some nonsense drama going. That's what I think.

00z EPS (Pivotal) in 7 hours 44 minutes

I  was good at High School Drama class. 

[Omegaraptor 2128]

The first rule of downvotes is you don't talk about downvotes.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2731]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Well that's promising. I don't have access to Day 11-15. So perhaps just a blip in the Nina pattern. I don't mind if we have some transitory ridging at times. If we do see a period of ridging I also wouldn't mind some fake cold/inversions. We did not see a single Columbia Basin cold pool develop last late Fall/Winter. Very rare.

 

Goes from this;

To this:

Still not cold, but the ridge moves East. And snow continues to pile up in the mountains.

[Jginmartini 3280]

48 and sitting at my low so far for the day 44*

All those fun showers today sort of fell apart over my area. Although I still got a few good showers along with some gusty winds.

Sitting at 4.43 inches of rain for the month.  

[Phil 10996]

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

[Deweydog 13278]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough in this regime to circumvent detection in ensemble means, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

[fubario 85]

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

4 minutes ago, fubario said:

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

He is busy watching Fox News. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

My goodness those EURO weeklies were fun! Thanks for posting all!

[fubario 85]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He is busy watching Fox News. 

interesting. would've guessed cnn

[van city 378]

6 minutes ago, fubario said:

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

I ❤ that guy and his maps.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Just now, fubario said:

interesting. would've guessed cnn

I think he watches both. So he can be perpetually outraged. 

[Meatyorologist 1330]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

Phil, when will the long range conglomerations hit my house?

[TigerWoodsLibido 5174]

44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions.

[Meatyorologist 1330]

 

[Jesse 7705]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions.

I really feel like we need a dude with bloodshot eyes giving a thumbs up react.

[Phil 10996]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

The EPS is even stronger. Lol.

However, good news is the EPS mean has a *weaker than average* vortex by New Years.

[Phil 10996]

Obviously a bifurcation in there somewhere. One EPS cluster continues with the zonal regime/lack of wave driving, the other cluster attacks the vortex and develops some legit blocking by mid-winter.

[Meatyorologist 1330]

Just now, Phil said:

I was just about to post that. Yikes is right. The EPS is even stronger.

However, good news is the EPS has a *weaker than average* vortex by January.

I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe.

Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members.

[MossMan 9295]

In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5174]

I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better.

[Jesse 7705]

Just now, MossMan said:

In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. 

I don’t dislike you but you can annoy me pretty bad sometimes. I’m sure the feeling is mutual.

[Phil 10996]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe.

Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members.

Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though.

If it’s a super massive black hole sitting over the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Niña as a low pass regime. It’s uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case.

[Jesse 7705]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better.

[Meatyorologist 1330]

Just now, Phil said:

Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though.

If it’s a super massive black hole sitting over the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Niña as a low pass regime. It’s uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case.

Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though.

I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come.

[Phil 10996]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though.

I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come.

Oh I agree with you, generally speaking. My forecast this winter is cold NW/warm SE for a DJF seasonal mean. And I’m sticking with that.

Question is, are we going to see something “freakish” upstairs this winter, as well? I have to admit the complete lack of heat flux thus far has me on edge (only comparable EP analogs are 1999 and 2011) but it’s very early, and there’s essentially zero sample size.

[TacomaWaWx 3437]

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

48 and sitting at my low so far for the day 44*

All those fun showers today sort of fell apart over my area. Although I still got a few good showers along with some gusty winds.

Sitting at 4.43 inches of rain for the month.  

5.41” on the month here just a few miles west. 

[Jesse 7705]

Some good rainfall here this evening. Up to .75” on the day.

Down to 45 degrees too. Nice to know it is dumping snow above 3,500 right now.

[GHweatherChris 2866]

28 hours and 20 minutes to go.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

00z GFS Day 1 Just say NO to ridging or split-flow. I really want to keep this NO-RIDGE November going.

Day 2

 

[MossMan 9295]

35 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I don’t dislike you but you can annoy me pretty bad sometimes. I’m sure the feeling is mutual.

It is!! 

[DJ Droppin 8213]

I think the incredible blocking pattern we saw in October will come back before Christmas.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 3

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 4

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 5

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[DJ Droppin 8213]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

North Pacific View

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 6

[BLI snowman 5822]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6

 

Slowly trending more towards the Euro again after its habitual mid range acid bender.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 7

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 8 Not a fan. I'll take the model runs we had 2-3 days ago.

[Omegaraptor 2128]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better.

Crown Point next big east wind event?

[DJ Droppin 8213]

I wonder how many changes we'll see in 2-3 days (Friday/Saturday 00z runs) Probably quite a bit.

[Jginmartini 3280]

51 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

5.41” on the month here just a few miles west 

Watching those nice juicy shower approach from the south always seem to slide by just to my West, East or break apart.  As you know my gauge hasn’t been reliable as of late either. Tried moving it to 2 new location and the same.  So I’ve been using a neighbors readings as theirs is more inline with the local area.  Your still kicking my BuTt in the rain business though!

[DJ Droppin 8213]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals