November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Lol PDX AFD is a copypasta from the afternoon. I hope there is a massive storm now.

[Requiem]

I don’t believe that no models whatsoever predicted this... just feels weird. Surely there’s something up?

[Deweydog]

The models were rigged.  Massive storm incoming.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I don’t believe that no models whatsoever predicted this... just feels weird. Surely there’s something up?

I’m not sure if the models picked up on the excessive thunderstorm activity in the southern low. That can cause undue intensification. The northern low is a few mb’s deeper than forecast but that’s honestly expected and largely insignificant for the interior.

[Gradient Keeper]

My assumptions were correct

12 AM UPDATE -

46005: 28.82" (976 mb) -0.16 (Falling rapidly)

46002: 28.95" (980 mb) -0.17 (Falling rapidly)

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

My assumptions were correct

12 AM UPDATE -

46005: 28.82" (976 mb) -0.16 (Falling rapidly)

46002: 28.95" (980 mb) -0.17 (Falling rapidly)

You’re doing all the hard work. Thank you for this Rob. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The models were rigged.  Massive storm incoming.

Unless I'm missing something? What are your thoughts?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

You’re doing all the hard work. Thank you for this Rob. 

No problem and thanks. I enjoy doing so. Let's just see what happens now.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Unless I'm missing something? What are your thoughts?

Seems like fairly run-of-the-mill model underrepresentation of rather strong cyclogenesis.  

[GHweatherChris]

2 big lows, virtually zero precip on radar.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Seems like fairly run-of-the-mill model underrepresentation of rather strong cyclogenesis.  

You'd think the NWS folks are watching this as attentively as we are, wouldn't you?

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

You'd think the NWS folks are watching this as attentively as we are, wouldn't you?

Apparently not.  They think nowcasts are good enough 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

No problem and thanks. I enjoy doing so. Let's just see what happens now.

What are we guessing for wind speeds boys

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

No problem and thanks. I enjoy doing so. Let's just see what happens now.

I believe we are in for quite a surprise. The secondary or southerly low look like it could have a major impact on the region. It is looking to be a lot stronger than anticipated. We’ll have to see and how it tracks. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

You'd think the NWS folks are watching this as attentively as we are, wouldn't you?

Probably not, but they’re on the clock and there isn’t much also to watch.  Unless of course they’re playing Clash of Clans on their phones.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS 10 Day GIF 500mb Height Anomaly

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ummm... 12 AM WV. Southern low looks like it is becoming the dominant low, and it looks like it is going to bomb big time!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

You'd think the NWS folks are watching this as attentively as we are, wouldn't you?

Too late for them to do much at this point lol. People will be waking up to it and will be pissed that us armchair meteorologists were more prepared for it than they were.

[Gradient Keeper]

We really need the Medford, Seattle, or Portland NWS folks to issue and update.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

We really need the Medford, Seattle, or Portland NWS folks to issue and update.

They need to hire you 

[Meatyorologist]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Seems like fairly run-of-the-mill model underrepresentation of rather strong cyclogenesis.  

A 15-20mb underestimate is not run of the mill.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z EPS 10 Day GIF 500mb Height Anomaly

 

A few more hours peppered in there for you.

[GHweatherChris]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ummm... 12 AM WV. Southern low looks like it is becoming the dominant low, and it looks like it is going to bomb big time!

I think that they think it is going to make an abrupt turn north and mimic the original low, as in stay offshore enough to be minimally impactful.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A few more hours peppered in their for you.

Thanks. Looks good.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ummm... 12 AM WV. Southern low looks like it is becoming the dominant low, and it looks like it is going to bomb big time!

Here is the WV loop. The secondary low is swinging in a lot further east than anticipated. And if it does become the dominant low, the NWS should be sending out updates. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G17&sector=wus&band=08&length=24

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I think that they think it is going to make an abrupt turn north and mimic the original low.

Yeah, I'm expecting it to turn northeast sharply, then north real soon.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cloud said:

Here is the WV loop. The secondary low is swinging in a lot further east than anticipated. And if it does become the dominant low, the NWS should be sending out updates. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G17&sector=wus&band=08&length=24

Nice link! That looks VERY concerning to me!

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

They need to hire you 

Now that would be awesome!

6z GFS in 37 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

12:30 AM 46002: 28.99 pressure rising. The low has just passed east of 130 W.

[Requiem]

This seems somewhat concerning...

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A 15-20mb underestimate is not run of the mill.

15-20mb?  How are you arriving at that math?

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

15-20mb?  How are you arriving at that math?

Right...

[Gradient Keeper]

Buoy 46005 with the northern low has not reported any pressure falls for 50 minutes. Southern low is becoming dominant. 12:40 AM observation isn't in this screenshot it also was 28.82 in.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12:30 AM WV Low is starting to turn a bit more northeast. No sharp north turn yet.

[Weather1011]

Y'all might have a windstorm on your hands down there  

[Gradient Keeper]

This thing better turn north soon, or else we're going to have a major surprise later this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

1:30 AM WV

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

1:30 AM WV

What are your thoughts right now? GFS doesn’t show this sort of scenario even on the latest run...

[Link]

(Met office eyes) XX  Geez this is as bad as those over in the UK weather forums where they either overhype or underhype yellow and amber warnings.  My favorite was the 'BBQ Summer' climate forecasts which turn into an utter crap show of record gloom and rain sometime between 2009 and 2011.  I think it was even a two year stretch of failed forecasts and unusual severe flooding.

[Link]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Probably not, but they’re on the clock and there isn’t much also to watch.  Unless of course they’re playing Clash of Clans on their phones.

It's no longer Farmville or that god awful Sim City 2013 fiasco? Which later bankrupted Maxis.Inc