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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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Windstorm is over I think. Latest discussion says 7pm for an end but it's been dead calm for nearly an hour.

Light rain and pleasant.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winds might not have materialized as expected in some places, but at least we have this going for us...

 

Lower pressure ≠ stronger, though.

The pressure gradient the eyewall of even a mediocre hurricane is many orders of magnitude tighter than that of a broad extratropical cyclone. Also antecedent pressures tend to be higher in the tropics, so it’s all relative.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Liking my December call more and more everyday.🥰

I lost my post-it note for that, torchy December? :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Way to kick us while we are down. Thanks a lot, Phil.

Continues the narrative that we don't get strong storms on the west coast ;)

I think ones like the Columbus Day Storm would have stacked up to an upper-tier hurricane. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well, glad we tracked that windstorm! Definitely needed a heads up on the 25 mph gusts we received. 

Can't say I wasn't prepared!

I’ll trade u wind for cold anomalies. 

We’ve had 50mph winds 4 times already this month. Way early for that.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Way to kick us while we are down. Thanks a lot, Phil.

🥰

Hey at least you have a cold winter to look forward to. Unlike me.

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4 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

So no snow until Jan

Less of an issue under -ENSO/+QBO. Wouldn’t hurt to have it weaker, though.

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Just got blasted with a downpour. Dropped 0.33" and brings us to an even 7" on the month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Dec and Jan in the PNW are like Jul-Sep in DC. No matter what the atmospheric configuration is, they will invariably find a way to torch.

Decembers 2008, 2009, 2013, and 2016 were all quite cold and largely on par with the colder Decembers in the 20th century. It's January that isn't remotely close to those same benchmarks.

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7 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

So no snow until Jan

Like Phil said, not as much of an issue this winter.  You can't get a January 1950 event without a true arctic blast of course, but the PNW west side has seen many good snows over the years without it.  And the mountains and the eastern parts of the PNW don't need it at all, average temps work for us, and slightly below works even better.

Really, how often does the PV get dislodged and head over the PNW?  I am thinking not that often.  

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49 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEFS weeklies want to repeat the vortex of 2019/20. 😕

image.thumb.jpeg.f5b3c1e7d2e49c45db80549c8df9d189.jpeg

I'm starting to get a real 99-00' vibe. 

 

On the ground level this November could not be any more different than last. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We've suffered some pretty significant storm damage today.  I've been able to get things cleaned up (stood the garbage can back up), but it's not looking good for that scraggly assed shrub.  

FEMA has been notified and is en-route to perform a damage assessment.

RIP scraggly assed shrub 😭

IMG_0223.jpg

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17 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Like Phil said, not as much of an issue this winter.  You can't get a January 1950 event without a true arctic blast of course, but the PNW west side has seen many good snows over the years without it.  And the mountains and the eastern parts of the PNW don't need it at all, average temps work for us, and slightly below works even better.

Really, how often does the PV get dislodged and head over the PNW?  I am thinking not that often.

Definitely less of an issue this winter. See 2016/17, 2013/14, 2010/11, etc, all were Niña/+QBO without SSW events. The December 2008 event technically preceded the SSW..that was a backwards-pathway wave-2 type event. Not common.

Early winter in PNW doesn’t have much of a correlation to NAM/PV anyway. January and February display a more profound connection, though it’s more consistent outside Niña/+QBO.

Mid/late season SSW events in 1988/89, 2018/19, 2008/09, 2003/04, 2017/18, 1984/85, etc. Also late December 1998, early December 1996. I’m sure there are more.

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm starting to get a real 99-00' vibe. 

 

On the ground level this November could not be any more different than last. 

A 1999/00 (or a 1975/76) is a worst-case outcome, if everything that can go wrong somehow manages to do so. Don’t think it’s likely, though.

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Looks like snowpack on Mt. Hood is about 400% of normal to date. Good start to the season!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

It was also pretty close to solar max, if that means anything. This winter has some of the lowest solar activity since the early 1800s.

One wildcard is the effect those Australian wildfires had on the tropical stratosphere. I’ve been reading up on it, and one could argue we’ve been mimicking the stratospheric thermal profile of a post-volcanic regime since late 2019.

Not to mention the Antarctic SSW in Sep/Oct 2019 triggered wave activity that screwed with the QBO this year. It’s a westerly (positive) event by the most relevant metrics, but it’s also not propagating normally.

I miss normal, (semi) predictable seasonal progressions. The last several years have been migraine inducing from a seasonal forecasting standpoint.

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3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Just pouring here.  My downspouts can't keep up and there is water everywhere!

We’re in a long band of heavy rain...might keep up for awhile. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We could always see that polar vortex set up over Alaska for 2-3 months like 1999-00. 

FWIW that was the year Alaska had it’s coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded. At least in the radiosonde dataset I’m using.

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Holy crap!  I was just looking on the Mesonet for highest windspeed from the storm and found this one.  Solander Island which is just off the West Coast of Vancouver Island.  At the peak they had sustained 81 with gusts to 93.  That is flat out nasty!

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=CWRU&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Holy crap!  I was just looking on the Mesonet for highest windspeed from the storm and found this one.  Solander Island which is just off the West Coast of Vancouver Island.  At the peak they had sustained 81 with gusts to 93.  That is flat out nasty!

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=CWRU&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

Wonder how many trees fell up there today...

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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