Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 The GFS and Euro look pretty similar to me? What’s the distinction? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 .36” so far on the day. Currently 42 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, Phil said: The GFS and Euro look pretty similar to me? What’s the distinction? Generally drier with less mountain snow on the GFS. At least from the eyes of a pleb without a stable of acronyms. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Generally drier with less mountain snow on the GFS. At least from the eyes of a pleb without a stable of acronyms. Or just from eyes from people that actually live here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, Phil said: The GFS and Euro look pretty similar to me? What’s the distinction? Not a huge difference, Euro just digs the trough early next week more and shows a sharper front. Means a lot in terms of mountain snow. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: .36” so far on the day. Currently 42 degrees. We had over an inch of rain again today, yay! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, GHweatherChris said: Or just from eyes from people that actually live here. We have 11/20/20 vision. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Generally drier with less mountain snow on the GFS. At least from the eyes of a pleb without a stable of acronyms. They look pretty similar in terms of the 500mb pattern and wavetrain, though. No acronyms needed. I read this thread thinking there was some huge divergence between the two models. If anything they’re closer than I’d expect in any typical situation. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, Phil said: They look pretty similar in terms of the 500mb pattern and wavetrain, though. No acronyms needed. I read this thread thinking there was some huge divergence between the two models. If anything they’re closer than I’d expect in any typical situation. The differences mean a lot locally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 BTW I hate acronyms. Way too many of those in science nowadays. They’re just hard to circumvent, especially when you’re posting from a phone. It’s not time efficient even with the shortcuts and abbreviations. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: BTW I hate acronyms. Way too many of those in science nowadays. They’re just hard to circumvent, especially when you’re posting from a phone. It’s not time efficient. IMO they aren’t great either TBH. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: The differences mean a lot locally. Sure, minor macro-scale differences can have major micro-scale consequences. I was just saying they look quite similar in the grand scheme of things. I don’t look at LR QPF output all that often. It’s pretty unstable. At least relative to most of the upper level features. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Sure, minor macro-scale differences can have major micro-scale consequences. I was just saying they look quite similar in the grand scheme of things. I don’t look at LR QPF output all that often. It’s pretty unstable. At least relative to most of the upper level features. U suck lol 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, Phil said: BTW I hate acronyms. Way too many of those in science nowadays. They’re just hard to circumvent, especially when you’re posting from a phone. It’s not time efficient even with the shortcuts and abbreviations. Honestly I’ve learned to understand most of your acronyms. If I don’t know I usually look it up. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Acronyms? Where's that Richard fella? 00z ECMWF in 8 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Mann ‘O Mann. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Acronyms? Where's that Richard fella? 00z ECMWF in 8 minutes Never heard from him after the fire. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Andrew I’m seeing some improvement in the long range 00z GFS ensemble mean 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Never heard from him after the fire. Oh wow, really? Was he visible in the group before or up to that point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 53 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: U suck lol Thanks Pedro. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 I was driving around town for quite a bit this evening. It absolutely poured off and on for a couple of hours. Lots of ponding on the roads. Good to see. EUG shows only .16 in the last 6 hours, but I guarantee most of the area got much more than that. I still feel like the EUG rain gauge is suspect. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 3 If only that ridge south of the Aleutians put on the brakes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Oh wow, really? Was he visible in the group before or up to that point? Seemed like it. Maybe not right up to that point, but I have never seen anything from him since. I actually looked through the list of the victims and no "Richard" (If that is his name.), but I wondered if he lost his home. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, iFred said: He posted on the Butte County disaster page right after the fire letting his Mom know that he was ok. That is good to know. I hope he is well. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, iFred said: He posted on the Butte County disaster page right after the fire letting his Mom know that he was ok. Thanks. Glad to hear that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 4 C'mon big ridge merger! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 5 not bad. Cold trough may dive southeast more abruptly than previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 6 Alright. Quite a bit better. That's what I was hoping for. I liked the shape and tilt of the ridge at Day 5 thinking the trough would slide down in front of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 8 Looks like that Aleutian vortex I mentioned setting up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 9'er Yup. Hopefully it's just a brief period of ridging. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Jginmartini said: Watching those nice juicy shower approach from the south always seem to slide by just to my West, East or break apart. As you know my gauge hasn’t been reliable as of late either. Tried moving it to 2 new location and the same. So I’ve been using a neighbors readings as theirs is more inline with the local area. Your still kicking my BuTt in the rain business though! 48/42 0.47” today not too bad. Have more rain this November than the last 2 combined. We might get a bit more rain before midnight but I’m doubtful. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Looks like the EURO is even worse. Probably just a brief interlude. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals It will be a wet winter with above average mountain snow but below average at the lower elevations, even foothills. I predict 3,000 feet and higher will see above average snow while 2,000 feet and lower sees below average snow. 2,000 to 3,000 around normal. The pattern is way too progressive and no real blocking in the long range. If we are lucky we will get to see an Arctic Blast in February, maybe. If I had to bet, we don’t see an Arctic Blast this winter. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 I really can't stand how crappy the doppler is down here. We've had a downpour for 20 minutes, and barely anything on radar. I don't have a rain gauge, but I'm sure at least an inch of rain has fallen today. Based on where this precip is heading towards, look for Santiam Pass to pick up at least another foot tonight, if not more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, dolt said: I really can't stand how crappy the doppler is down here. We've had a downpour for 20 minutes, and barely anything on radar. I don't have a rain gauge, but I'm sure at least an inch of rain has fallen today. Based on where this precip is heading towards, look for Santiam Pass to pick up at least another foot tonight, if not more. Yeah it’s pouring here and has been for hours. The PWS around town are picking up the totals so far. Average is around 0.75” for Springfield so far today. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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