Jump to content
The Weather Forums

January 500mb Anomalies For Various Periods 1948 to Present


Recommended Posts

I just ran some composites for January 500mb anomalies for North America and the NE Pacific and the results ares stunning.  It's incredible how certain anomaly patterns can lock in for decades and then drastically change to something different.  To have such extreme anomaly signatures show up over such long time periods is pretty amazing.  Anyway this clearly shows why January has sucked balls since 1980.  The composite for 2007-13 is certainly an improvement from 1981-2006, but still a long way to go.  The first two maps are from the cold phase.  One is 1948-1980 and the other 1949-57.  The next one is from the warm phase 1981-2006.  The last map is from 2007-13.  Obviously we need the positive center to move NW for things to get good.

 

 

 

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I now see why 5 out of the last 7 Januaries (going on 8 this year) were so horrible for Socal. However, last year going into this year has had the driest weather overall.

No question out of the 4 maps the most recent is the worst for you. I certainly hope we see that positive center jump NW over the next few years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

We haven't had a -PNA January since 2008

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Last January PNA of -1.00 or lower was in 1972. In that same timeframe, we've had 10 Januaries with a PNA of 1.00 or higher.

 

Positive PNA has probably come to dominate January more than any other month. It's kind of crazy. One of these years the atmosphere will probably just out a January with an extreme reversal of this decades-long pattern. Just a question of when. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread is an example of one that we should put in the National discussion area. I will move it tomorrow.

I say we should leave it. We only have two threads in the NW section. Not good IMO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a thought after looking at the evolution above... it could be another 50 years before it goes back to the previous regime.     Or more.

 

If that is the case... not sure it will matter to any of us unless you are planning to live forever.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a thought after looking at the evolution above... it could be another 50 years before it goes back to the previous regime.     Or more.

 

If that is the case... not sure it will matter to any of us unless you are planning to live forever.

Your not 19 years old? B)

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t understand why 

 

This thread is an example of one that we should put in the National discussion area. I will move it tomorrow.

Why is this stuff so sensitive? I don’t understand why topics in this forum have to be so specified to PNW weather. Lets open it up a bit. This is a great thread for this section of the forum. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Brennen, the info contained in it is also interesting to me because it represents the weather here as well. And it also represents weather all across the country from a historical perspective. Not everybody from say Chicago wants to read through the PNW forum on the off chance there are interesting threads. Similarly, you probably don't read their stuff. It would be a shame if some great research went to waste because nobody knew to look at it.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Basically we want to run this website similarly to the way AmericanWx does from a layout perspective. National disco and subforums for regions.

AmericanWx did not break up the community into subforums until it was large enough to do so. I personally don't think we're ready for that just yet.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Brennen, the info contained in it is also interesting to me because it represents the weather here as well. And it also represents weather all across the country from a historical perspective. Not everybody from say Chicago wants to read through the PNW forum on the off chance there are interesting threads. Similarly, you probably don't read their stuff. It would be a shame if some great research went to waste because nobody knew to look at it.

 

I wonder if some threads should be posted in 2 places.  More people may see it that way.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly I think (for now) we should have 4 pinned threads on one forum.

 

- NW US

- SW US

- Central US

- Eastern US

 

This way the community is not divided and will have more opportunity for inter-forum communication and growth.

 

This is how EasternWX got so big. Only when the forums were large enough to warrant subforums, were they implemented over there.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly I think (for now) we should have 4 pinned threads on one forum.

 

- NW US

- SW US

- Central US

- Eastern US

 

This way the community is not divided and will have more opportunity for inter-forum communication and growth.

 

This is how EasternWX got so big. Only when the forums were large enough to warrant subforums, were they implemented over there.

 

While I appreciate your input, the forums were split out for now, and when they are under utilized, they will be merged appropriately. If you want to discuss this further, I would encourage you to start a PM thread with me, Black Hole, and Dominic.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Could you post a similar map for December, Snow Wizard?  I bet you'd discover the exact opposite trend in the 500mb anomalies - a sign that over the past 3-4 decades our winters seem to be coming "earlier."  January used to be slightly colder than December most places, but the 1981-2010 climatology moved the coldest weather to December, and reduced our winter seasonal temperature lag to pretty much zero!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Could you post a similar map for December, Snow Wizard?  I bet you'd discover the exact opposite trend in the 500mb anomalies - a sign that over the past 3-4 decades our winters seem to be coming "earlier."  January used to be slightly colder than December most places, but the 1981-2010 climatology moved the coldest weather to December, and reduced our winter seasonal temperature lag to pretty much zero!

Yes...that would be kind of interesting to look at.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 11 months later...

The '49 to '57 Januaries were absolutely brutal here in British Columbia. With the exception of 1953 and 1955, all of the them were below average. Ironically, 1955 was the 2nd coldest year on record after 1916. January 1950 was the coldest month of all time by wide margin. 20.9C (37.6F) below average in Prince George and Vavenby. I have been told that January 1950 was quite mild in eastern North America, which would follow given that pattern. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...