July 2014 Observations and Discussion

[tim the weatherman]

seen on tha accuweather fourms that the second half of august will have a persistant ridging in the bering sea that is sliding eastward towards canada and they also has said this ridge will be strong.

[East Dubzz]

I am prob speaking for a lot of the members on this board, IMO thus far this summer it has been very nice, not hot, very active and cooler.  Last summer was pretty similar except it warmed up a lot in August.  I don't see that happening this August. 

Definitiely agree with this as far as this summer. Has been a very pleasant one for me, I can't complain. And I hope it doesn't get hot this time around, that's the worst for football practices.

[james1976]

yeah im enjoying it. looking cooler heading into August.

[tim the weatherman]

yeah im enjoying it. looking cooler heading into August.

this is the kind of weather we need instead of temps into the upper 90s and into the 100s with the heat index into the 100 to 110s.

[tim the weatherman]

was looking at the weather blogs and the what they are saying is a bunch of crap they are saying that thy still saying that we will have a moderate to a strong el nino that the winter will be mild with a few spring like days in january of 2015 that snowfall will be below normal for chicago and other areas as well and with the latest on the el nino so that means that the el nino is a no show this year that means that we will have a repeat from last winter with this up coming winter being twice severe than last winter with a number of things with the northren pacific and with the northren atlantic being above normal water temps so that means with a -epo/wpo -ao -nao with a la nada to a la nina and with a jet stream screaming over california.

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like the lrc has begun according to the accuweather forms about the rossby waves.

[james1976]

LRC doesnt begin until October.

[tim the weatherman]

LRC doesnt begin until October.

i agree that the lrc doesn't began until october.

[james1976]

GFS looks cooler next week.

[tim the weatherman]

we might be looking at a la nina by new data showing so that means that the el nino that is forecasted is no longer.

[Tom]

We should keep the talk about ENSO conditions and nxt winter in the appropriate topic.  Keep this only for July observations.

[Tom]

Major cold for July standards to finish off July and open the 1st week of August.  The relentless NW Flow continues....

[tim the weatherman]

cpc is still saying that the midwest will be below avrage for the next two weeks.

[james1976]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[tim the weatherman]

just found out from this website that the enso region peaked in may of 2014 then starting cooling off in june and this month so that means that the el nino forecasted for the fall and winter of 2014 is a no show also they are saying that neutral condictions through november 2014.

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like the el nino continues to dwindle so that means the el nino is a no show this year and just heard that next year is going to be the warmest.

[East Dubzz]

Yesterday wasn't as warm as I expected, but today is definitely gonna be a warm one. So humid.

[tim the weatherman]

heard from the weather centre that we will have a weak el nino heading into fall into winter that have to do with the upwelling.

[james1976]

Below normal keeps increasing
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[james1976]

Maybe we can start an August thread soon? 8-14 day keeps us all below normal as well, which takes us a few days into August.

[tim the weatherman]

Below normal keeps increasing

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

if this keeps up that you can expect for fall and upcoming winter that this is not from an el nino that this is caused by the la nada and i expect this trend to continue through fall to this up coming winterbut with this winter being brutally cold with back to back snowstorms.

[Tom]

Ouch!  Ya, the 12z Euro run is starting to show highs in the upper 60's again next week.  This may be another week with an "Autumnal Feel" to it.

[tim the weatherman]

the rate we are going with these cold shots that we could have an early fall and winter this year.

[tim the weatherman]

we should make a thread for the enso.

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids still couldn't make it to 90 even on the hottest day of the year.  It topped out at 89 with a dewpoint in the upper 70s.  Our next shot at 90 should hold off until August.

[East Dubzz]

we should make a thread for the enso.

There is a bigger thread for it in another category. Kind of hard to understand some of the things those guys say, but if we started one it'd probably just have to be merged into that.

[East Dubzz]

Cedar Rapids still couldn't make it to 90 even on the hottest day of the year. It topped out at 89 with a dewpoint in the upper 70s. Our next shot at 90 should hold off until August.

But man that it was hot enough for me. In Platteville, Wisconsin, where I was working today the heat index topped out at 104. That's plenty warm, I'm glad we haven't had many days like that this year because I just hate them.

[Tom]

Wow, wasn't expecting a 69F temp this morning with a gusty NNE wind off the lake.  These are conditions expected in September.  I can't imagine what kind of chill we will be experiencing this Fall when we have such strong shots of cold in mid/late July.

[james1976]

A lot of NW flow on recent GFS runs.

[tim the weatherman]

Wow, wasn't expecting a 69F temp this morning with a gusty NNE wind off the lake.  These are conditions expected in September.  I can't imagine what kind of chill we will be experiencing this Fall when we have such strong shots of cold in mid/late July.

i agree that this fall will be on a cold one and by octoberit will chill down.

[Niko]

My lows next week are projected to be near 50F. Ouch!!! I will not be surprised to even see upper 40s in spots. This has been a very comfortable summer. I'll take it anytime. My ideal summer weather is from highs ranging in the mid to upper 70's and lows in the 50's. Now, that is perfecto!!!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Today will be the 3rd day of July that we have failed to hit 70F. Certainly not unusual to see multiple highs in the 60s in July, but if we can squeak out another one or two days like this at the end of the month, four or more of those below 70 highs are a bit more rare.

[Tom]

Today will be the 3rd day of July that we have failed to hit 70F. Certainly not unusual to see multiple highs in the 60s in July, but if we can squeak out another one or two days like this at the end of the month, four or more of those below 70 highs are a bit more rare.

I think next week Monday looks in the bag for you to squeeze another sub 70F day, especially with winds off the lake.

[East Dubzz]

Man the weather for the next week looks awesome.

[Tom]

Man the weather for the next week looks awesome.

The cool nights make for great sleeping!  It has been an amazing summer and August seems like it won't disappoint.

[james1976]

only 1 day that we've hit 90 so far. tomorrow and saturday look warm but prolly not 90 and then next week we are in the 70s.

[Tom]

I can't believe how much of the nation will be below normal in prime summer time.  This would be about 75% of the nation.

 

I'm sure the southern folks are not minding this cool summer and saving quite a bit of money on AC this year.

[james1976]

GFS remains below normal throughout entire run.

[tim the weatherman]

been looking around and the what they are saying that we are looking at a weak elnino through the fall into the winter.

[james1976]

GFS looks below normal throughout recent runs. How is Euro looking, or other models?