July 2014 Observations and Discussion

[East Dubzz]

June just went out with a bang, second highest June total rainfall ever in Dubuque wiyh 12.63" for the month. But July is coming in very quietly and now through the 4th looks to be pleasant weather finally! But, things may be changing again after that with hot and stormy weather possible again, so enjoy the nice weather while it's here!

 

Can't believe it's July already, but it is indeed here...Discuss!

[james1976]

first couple days are fall-like!

[james1976]

puffy clouds and isolated showers moving through from the NW. i love this kind of weather. reminds me of fall. nice breeze. got the windows open. nice to be able to shut the air off for a few days.

[james1976]

Wednesday looks very cool according to DMX:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WILL BE CLOSE TO LOW  
MAX RECORDS ALTHOUGH LIKELY JUST ABOVE THOSE VALUES.

[james1976]

http://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weather/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/July-1-Outlook.jpg

[Geos]

Today was 79°, which is about average. Up and over 22" of rain/water for the year now.

 

Next 3 days look really nice!

[East Dubzz]

Went for a run earlier tonight after that secondary cold front passed through and man it was so nice out.

[james1976]

way nice out today. cloudy, breezy and mid 60s for highs!

[Tom]

There are some real cool signals for the month of July.  I know the weekly run of the JMA came out last week and showed a cool Lakes/Midwest region, CFSv2 is cool as well and GFS mid/long range isn't looking torchy.  I'm sure there will be many more chances for active weather in this type of pattern this month.

[james1976]

yeah DMX talking about a stormy weekend coming up. Still no signs of a typical summer heat wave.

[Tom]

Can't believe there are mid 50's showing up in the northern burbs lakeside during the middle of the day on July 2nd!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This has been almost a dream summer thus far for my preferences, the lake has really made a difference in keeping us cool more often than not, yet we've had more good thunderstorms than most years, and we're really only halfway through prime thunderstorm season.

[james1976]

[East Dubzz]

Yesterday was my favorite type of weather besides winter. Felt like a nice fall day, perfect weather to go outside and do stuff because it wasn't so hot that everytime I move I sweat buckets.

[East Dubzz]

From the DVN:

 

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
PERIODIC SHORT WAVES THAT WILL TRIGGER MCS EVENTS NEAR OR IN THE DVN
CWA. HOWEVER...TIMING THESE WAVES THIS FAR OUT IS TRICKY BUSINESS
AND WE WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND THEN RAISE POPS
WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS OF TIMING EACH WAVE...AND ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

 

After this stretch of pleasant weather, looks like we could be headed back to hotter weather with at leasr a slight chance of storms for several days. Don't enjoy heat much, but if it brings somes storms like it has been, I won't complain too much.

[Geos]

Perfect weather for the 4th of July. Low 70s and low humidity! 

 

Happy 4th of July everyone!

[Tom]

I have been paying attention to the arctic summer and it is yet again having a record cold summer like it did last year.  It hasn't hit normal yet this year.  Seems like there are many signs pointing to another good winter next year.

 

It has been a great weekend and the weather has cooperated.  Keep an eye to the sky later this evening!

[tim the weatherman]

i was wondering if that is winter 2014 2015 tom what you just said.

[tim the weatherman]

also hearing about the super elnino supposed to be forecasted is a bust heard that by joe bastardi and watts up with that website(and they are saying that it is ruled out).

[Niko]

Its interesting that no big heatwaves have occurred so far, nothing out of the ordinary. Its July, the hottest part of the summer (I think). Once August rolls on in, then, its all downhill from there as we will start approaching Autumn and the clouds will start looking more different, more like fall type clouds. It can still get hot in September, but that summer feeling will be long gone.

 

Hoping we get a repeat of last winter this upcoming winter season. I still cannot get over how cold and snowy it was in my area winter of 2013-14. Just Incredible!!!!

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, that cold really took a toll on me last year and I was ready for some warmer weather, but then I remembered how I don't like heat and humidity and now I'm ready for at least fall weather at least. Winter is the most exciting to me, but fall weather may be the most enjoyable and relaxing.

[Tom]

I know there have been forecasters out there pumping a Super Nino for next Winter, I gotta say, jumping on that bandwagon early was a big mistake and I never believed it would happen due to the physical drivers in a cold PDO. The waters below the surface are very cool now and are forecasted to cool even more heading deeper into the summer months.  All of these indicators lead me to believe that an El Nino MAY be a no show this year.  Let's see how this plays out, but a La Nada may be in the cards now which would certainly raise the possibility of another repeat record cold/snowy winter next year somewhere in the region.  It's still to early to say, but my personal belief is that with a decreasing chance of a strong El Nino and/or weak El Nino, this may be setting up to a very similar situation as last winter.  Of course, the LRC will play a big role and if this wet summer is something Mother Nature is teeing up leading into the Autumn months....its definitely a very good sign.

[Tom]

A major typhoon is about to hit Japan and you know what that means, expect a very strong cool shot in the 6-10 day range.  Euro ensembles are already sniffing out a big time cool down for mid July.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control...major trough hitting the central CONUS...

[james1976]

this pattern wont break....and im not complaining. except for when i get water in my basement. lol

[tim the weatherman]

I know there have been forecasters out there pumping a Super Nino for next Winter, I gotta say, jumping on that bandwagon early was a big mistake and I never believed it would happen due to the physical drivers in a cold PDO. The waters below the surface are very cool now and are forecasted to cool even more heading deeper into the summer months.  All of these indicators lead me to believe that an El Nino MAY be a no show this year.  Let's see how this plays out, but a La Nada may be in the cards now which would certainly raise the possibility of another repeat record cold/snowy winter next year somewhere in the region.  It's still to early to say, but my personal belief is that with a decreasing chance of a strong El Nino and/or weak El Nino, this may be setting up to a very similar situation as last winter.  Of course, the LRC will play a big role and if this wet summer is something Mother Nature is teeing up leading into the Autumn months....its definitely a very good sign.

i agree tom that joe bastardi had just said that the super el nino is a major bust from the begining that they are so mixed up on the cold pdo that is triggering this el nino to form from the start that i did my little research that a warm pdo means above normal snowfall and below normal temprature in the southeast and a cold pdo means that above normal tempratures and below normal snowfall so we are looking at a repeat from last winter and i heard from andrew at the weather centre that the kelvin wave played a big role in this because back in may that it suddenly disappeard.

[Tom]

Mid July is usually the warmest time of year, but not this year!  Clear indication of a cold signal ahead next week and beyond.  The way this month is setting up it def doesn't want to create a sustained heat wave.  JMA predicted this pattern quite well for this month.  12z Euro showing highs in the upper 60's for 2 days the following week.  Ouch!

[james1976]

Mid July is usually the warmest time of year, but not this year!  Clear indication of a cold signal ahead next week and beyond.  The way this month is setting up it def doesn't want to create a sustained heat wave.  JMA predicted this pattern quite well for this month.  12z Euro showing highs in the upper 60's for 2 days the following week.  Ouch!

HAHA...Tom, I was just coming here to post this!

[james1976]

Precip looks to be normal-above as well.

[Tom]

Just read JB's post on WxBell regarding the Euro's seasonal model forecast through January.  It looks like a very similar pattern is setting up next winter with a massive ridge near Alaska and the center of cold centered in the Plains to the East.  The only difference this year may be the southern jet that cuts underneath into S Cali that spawns some big time bowling ball storms, Pan Handle Hooks, and Nor' Easters!

 

FWIW, looking ahead into next week's cold shot in the heart of the Lakes/Midwest, I did some calculations using the LRC from last year and it fits the end of January PV outbreak.  Very interesting to see this pattern still persisting.  I can't believe we are in mid July and seeing this happening even though the jet stream weakens during the summer months.  Just another example of how persistent this pattern has been since last Autumn (hint hint towards this year's Autumn/Winter).

[james1976]

Just read JB's post on WxBell regarding the Euro's seasonal model forecast through January.  It looks like a very similar pattern is setting up next winter with a massive ridge near Alaska and the center of cold centered in the Plains to the East.  The only difference this year may be the southern jet that cuts underneath into S Cali that spawns some big time bowling ball storms, Pan Handle Hooks, and Nor' Easters!

 

FWIW, looking ahead into next week's cold shot in the heart of the Lakes/Midwest, I did some calculations using the LRC from last year and it fits the end of January PV outbreak.  Very interesting to see this pattern still persisting.  I can't believe we are in mid July and seeing this happening even though the jet stream weakens during the summer months.  Just another example of how persistent this pattern has been since last Autumn (hint hint towards this year's Autumn/Winter).

that sounds great but i gotta believe the pattern will change at some point?? hopefully not until next spring at least!

[james1976]

Accuweather's take on the cool shot next week.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-neguri-cool-air-east/30064593

[tim the weatherman]

Just read JB's post on WxBell regarding the Euro's seasonal model forecast through January.  It looks like a very similar pattern is setting up next winter with a massive ridge near Alaska and the center of cold centered in the Plains to the East.  The only difference this year may be the southern jet that cuts underneath into S Cali that spawns some big time bowling ball storms, Pan Handle Hooks, and Nor' Easters!

 

FWIW, looking ahead into next week's cold shot in the heart of the Lakes/Midwest, I did some calculations using the LRC from last year and it fits the end of January PV outbreak.  Very interesting to see this pattern still persisting.  I can't believe we are in mid July and seeing this happening even though the jet stream weakens during the summer months.  Just another example of how persistent this pattern has been since last Autumn (hint hint towards this year's Autumn/Winter).

this is the set up with a massive ridge over alaska so that means like you has indicated tom that we will have a -epo/wpo +pna -ao and a +nao withthe southren jet cutting through california so that means that the plains,greatlakes,midwest and the northeast will be in store for a repeat from last winter with cold and snowy and with siberia filling with a good and healthy snowpack and i am thinking that will starting to happen in october and starting to fill in canada toward november.

[Tom]

Holy D**n!!!  I knew it would trend much below normal....

[BrianJK]

Tom - any warmth or at least moderating beyond that time frame?  Heading back north the weekend of the 19th.

[Tom]

JMA, CFSv2 and Euro are all keeping a cooler than normal trend through the end of the month.  Hey, its not like your going to see it snow up north!  Hahahaha

[tim the weatherman]

jb said on his twitter page that a major alaskan ridge and a jet stream will be in play for this upcoming winter so the central to the eastren conus will have a repeat from last winter with a -epo/wpo -ao +pna +nao so this winter will be nasty.

[BrianJK]

Guys - Maybe someone can make a thread dedicated to the discussion up the upcoming winter?  We're entering the heart of summer, don't really need to be discussing winter in the July thread do we?

[Tom]

Boy, July is looking to be a very cool month around these parts in the heart of summer.  Which doesn't necessarily mean temps are all that cold since normal highs are in the mid 80's, so that translates high temps in upper 70's which is very comfortable IMO.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing high temps in the mid 60's for Tuesday!  Now that will feel autumnal in mid July...depending on how much cloud cover will be present, I could certainly see temps in the 60's.  I still can't fathom how remarkably consistent the LRC can still be in mid summer.  Just a testament how strong pattern has been.  This is def the July version of the PV....lol