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July 2014 Observations and Discussion


East Dubzz

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This cool shot coming is something else. 

 

Was just looking at the 850 mb temperatures.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yes, the LRC begins its new cycle towards the beginning of October through roughly mid/late November each year.  You won't know really how long the cycle is till you see it repeating its first cycle in December or very late November.  A normal cycle is between 55-61 days.

 

The LRC Theory is based on a concept that the weather pattern begins each year's new cycle in October.  From there you will find out how long each cycle will be for the remaining calendar year beginning in October.

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Took a look at the SST since the last time I posted them and it looks like the central Pacific cooled off and the warm body of water in the NE Pacific grew in size.  El Nino prospects continue to dwindle if this trend continues.

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At least with the below normal pattern that is set to stick around for the next 1-2 weeks, rainfall wont be as impressive and persistent.  This weekends storms may be the last heavy rains for a while.  D**n mosquitos are relentless this year!

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Des Moines pm disco:
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS AND TUE HIGHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD  
LOWS/MIN MAXES RESPECTIVELY. GFS ENSEMBLE LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES  
REACH MINUS 2 TO 3 SDS WITH VERY ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
ACROSS MT/ND. IN FACT GFS SURFACE THETA-E DROPS 65K FROM THE  
WEEKEND INTO TUE MORNING AT DES MOINES.  

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Remember that big storm that was featured in the LRC in early October of last year in SD that killed all that cattle and that hit MN/Upper Midwest with not just 1, but 2 Blizzards???  It's cycling through once again in July around the 20/21!  Its fascinating to see it appear once again.

 

@ Brian, next weekend is looking more and more superb in our region.  I think I'm heading up to Castle Rock Lake this time since I didn't go during the 4th of July weekend.  Another beauty shaping up with no precip and a SW Flow.

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Just want to get this clear; the upcoming cool shot is NOT a result of the polar vortex. It's just late season pool of cool air that'll be coming down to the US. Not every cool down is a result of the PV...

ive read that it is from the PV

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just read an article on the weather centre and the are saying that this upcoming winter is going to be more severe that they are closely looking the sea temprature near greenland and near alaska so that means thatcentral to eastren conus will be twice as cold from last winter with much below normal temps and much above normal snowfall.

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@theweatherman, I also read that article and last year I believed we would have another severe winter on the table due to the cyclical patterns we see from time to time that set up in the NE Pacific.  I'm starting to feel more confident that the following winter will be another extremely cold/snowy season.  Lot's to still iron out, especially the new LRC cycle, so lets enjoy the summer while we can because another fast start to winter is on the horizon this year!

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 412
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     950 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
    
     TORNADO WATCH 412 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
    
     ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-075-089-091-093-095-097-099-103-
     105-111-113-123-125-141-143-175-179-197-201-203-130600-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0412.140713T0250Z-140713T0600Z/
    
     IL
     .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     BOONE                COOK                DE KALB            
     DUPAGE               FORD                FULTON             
     GRUNDY               IROQUOIS            KANE               
     KANKAKEE             KENDALL             KNOX               
     LAKE                 LA SALLE            LEE                
     LIVINGSTON           MARSHALL            MASON              
     MCHENRY              MCLEAN              OGLE               
     PEORIA               STARK               TAZEWELL           
     WILL                 WINNEBAGO           WOODFORD            
  

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Euro ensembles hinting at a mini heat wave Mon-Thu for our region next week...we'll see if that holds.  I think next week may bring more severe weather as another big cool down is in store.  NW Flow looks to take hold as this transient patter that has been persistent this year summer takes hold.

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Not sure if this means anything, but having this cooldown (PV Visit) in July coming up this week could be the beginnings of what could be another severe winter on the way. Also, another big cooldown next week as well doesnt happen too often inn July.

I wonder how much influence El Nino will be this upcoming winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The big cool shot coming tonight, tomorrow and Wednesday is still apart of the LRC cycle from way back in October/November last year.  I'm sure the new LRC cycle next year will have plenty of visits of the PV next winter.

 

If the El Nino does evolve this fall/winter, I believe it will fuel larger significant systems.  Last year we really didn't get to many monster storms/blizzards that effected the Midwest/Lakes/OV regions.  Nonetheless, I believe it will be another fantastic winter.

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Breezy and quite pleasant tonight. Should get into the mid 50s with no problem!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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