james1976 Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 yeah i aint liking how those water temps are changing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 JB saying that '76/77 is showing up on the Analogs...here is an excerpt from that winter: Seems very similar regarding the set-up we are seeing in the NE Pacific creating the high-amplitude jet stream pattern. Also, if blocking sets up in Greenland, extreme cold can get even worse like it did back then. Winter of 1976–1977[edit]Weather conditions during the months leading up to the blizzard allowed the blizzard to have the impacts it did. A high-amplitude planetary wave pattern set up,[4] which was very persistent from October 1976 through January 1977, and involved a ridge over western North America and a trough over eastern North America.[5] In January 1977, this pattern persisted, with the pressure of the strong ridge over western North America being more than two standard deviations from the mean, while the strong trough centered over eastern North America was more than three standard deviations from the mean.[5]A strong blocking high developed over the Arctic Ocean during January, and this moved the polar vortex to southern Canada, south of its normal location.[6] Strong northwest flow between the ridge and the trough resulted in a strong northwest flow in between, which ushered Arctic air into the central and eastern United States.[6] The circulation helped cause record cold for the winter over many portions of the eastern United States, with the Ohio Valley averaging more than 8 °F (4 °C) below normal.[4] The severe winter was not limited to the northeastern United States; snow was observed in Miami, Florida, on January 20, and snow mixed with rain occurred in the Bahamas.[7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 JB saying that '76/77 is showing up on the Analogs...here is an excerpt from that winter: Seems very similar regarding the set-up we are seeing in the NE Pacific creating the high-amplitude jet stream pattern. Also, if blocking sets up in Greenland, extreme cold can get even worse like it did back then. Winter of 1976–1977[edit]Weather conditions during the months leading up to the blizzard allowed the blizzard to have the impacts it did. A high-amplitude planetary wave pattern set up,[4] which was very persistent from October 1976 through January 1977, and involved a ridge over western North America and a trough over eastern North America.[5] In January 1977, this pattern persisted, with the pressure of the strong ridge over western North America being more than two standard deviations from the mean, while the strong trough centered over eastern North America was more than three standard deviations from the mean.[5]A strong blocking high developed over the Arctic Ocean during January, and this moved the polar vortex to southern Canada, south of its normal location.[6] Strong northwest flow between the ridge and the trough resulted in a strong northwest flow in between, which ushered Arctic air into the central and eastern United States.[6] The circulation helped cause record cold for the winter over many portions of the eastern United States, with the Ohio Valley averaging more than 8 °F (4 °C) below normal.[4] The severe winter was not limited to the northeastern United States; snow was observed in Miami, Florida, on January 20, and snow mixed with rain occurred in the Bahamas.[7that is true but what if a southeast ridge setting up so that means that chicago will be in line for crippling snowstorms to maybe full blowing blizzards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 snow happened in Miami and the Bahamas?!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 we could wind up having a southeast ridge this winter ad it could be stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 1977 and 2014 were similar with the cold, but for different reasons. 1977 had the big -AO/-NAO. 2014 had the big +EPO ridge through Alaska into the Arctic. 2014 winter in Green Bay had the highest number of days below zero, ever. http://i.imgur.com/OFXFTVI.png http://i.imgur.com/Et1eD4V.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 The amount of wishcasting in here is insane..not trying to be rude, just an observation 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 The amount of wishcasting in here is insane..not trying to be rude, just an observationI wouldnt call it wishcasting. People are just throwing out models and graphs that they find on the net. It's not like anyone in here is actually making a winter forecast. The24weatherman may get a bit excited but it's all fun 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 There is no longer a chance for an El Niño developing this summer. Not only did they delay their forecast El Niño to a period where their forecasting ability is almost zero, the chances where reduced 15 percent. Please do not forget the criterion for an El Niño which I have already posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Ok Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Analogs are fun too look at but 90% of the time they bust. My opinion is that we're in uncharted ground with our climate. Having said that, ridges in the "two standard deviation range" aren't as rare as they used to be ( I know that's an oxymoron). The ridge over the eastern Pacific last winter was unprecedented.IMO, it will be another unprecedented ridge yet again this winter. I know you live in the NW coast and would like to see some winter weather, but I highly doubt troughing develops this winter in your area, maybe very early in the season but eventually that same pattern we saw last year will take hold. Of course you will see some storms, but not many snowstorms. The weather pattern cycles continuously and we are seeing this same SST pattern as we saw back in 1917/18 where that warm pool of water in NE Pacific stayed in place and didn't go anywhere. In result, the Central/Eastern U.S. saw severe winters. We will have yet another, even if an El Nino does develop. Another important fact is that last year at this time there wasn't as much warm water in the Bearing Sea, Gulf of Alaska and off the west coast. I posted those map comparisons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 I agree with you that I'd like to see the Southwest get more rain and they should if this El Nino comes on in the Fall. I personally reside there in the Spring and my parents are snow birds so I def would like more moisture down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 The new Euro seasonal forecast has a central based El Nino and it also shows major blocking near Greenland. Euro/JMA are fairly similar in their forecasts this far out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 whats a central based El Nino? whats the "central based" part mean? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 whats a central based El Nino? whats the "central based" part mean?A central-based El Nino keeps the warmer waters in the central pacific and is referred to as a "modiki" type El Nino. This is a similar set-up to what happened back in 2009/10 and had a cold/snowy eastern U.S. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 2009/2010 winter was very snowy around here. Just looked up some info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 fall outlook...hope its ok to post herehttp://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_07291040_fall2014.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 2009/2010 winter was very snowy around here. Just looked up some info.Ya, that winter was solid around these parts...solid 50-60" season...I remember it was cold, but not severely cold....consistent highs in the 20's and upper 10's. I remember looking at the 7-day forecast and for weeks it was cold but not brutal. Then again, there wasn't that warm pool in the NE Pacific, but there was a lot of high latitude blocking. This winter is shaping up to be a nice one, I just want to see the storm track set up with the new LRC this Fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 was looking that japan has reduced their el nino forecast for this fall and winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 the newest jametec model is out and it is showing a central pacific el nino(modoki). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 also joe bastardi has said the the southeast will be colder and snowy for this upcoming winter and to me i have to disagree on joe on that because if we get the -nao and possibe se ridge setting up so that means that the midwest to the northeast us will be in for nasty winter thisyear and with the central elnino known as modiki el nino. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 also joe bastardi has said the the southeast will be colder and snowy for this upcoming winter and to me i have to disagree on joe on that because if we get the -nao and possibe se ridge setting up so that means that the midwest to the northeast us will be in for nasty winter thisyear and with the central elnino known as modiki el nino.Why do you suspect the development of a SE ridge? With a -NAO/+AAM bias, that'd be almost impossible without an uber GOA vortex.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 fall outlook...hope its ok to post herehttp://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_07291040_fall2014.jpgLol, that's climo Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 was looking and we have a tripole so we will have a -nao for this winter warm up by greenland east of newfoundland and warm down towards the a zores islands and the southeast us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Here is something I found in my search: Northeast and Great Lakes: A good portion of the Northeast will likely experience a colder-than-average winter, but it really depends on where you’re located at. Places in the northern Northeast like Maine could actually have around average temperatures and snowfall, while regions more to the south and along the coast may feel the effects of heavier snowfall and brutally cold air. The Great Lakes region will be brutally cold; however lake-effect snowfall could be considerably less this year. This was hard for me to include on my winter map, which is why I wanted to mention it here. Waters on the lakes are still very cold from this past winter with chunks of ice that were still being spotted as late as this past July 4th. This will likely have an effect on the lake-effect snow machine this upcoming winter. To my understanding, it seems to me that this year, perhaps, the Northeast corridor (i-95 region from D.C. TO B-Town) will get innidated with heavy snows and very cold outbreaks with sustain cold air in place from D-M. The jet stream will be in the right spot for explosive developments along the eastern seaboard for big snowstorms and blizzards. Every article I have read so far saids that a harch winter on the way for Northeast coastline, which goes back a few years. Have to wait and see though how strong the southeast ridge will be, how much blocking occurs in greenland and if a El Nino occurs and also other factors as well.. All factors play a big role and can make weather change in a heart beat.As far as the Great Lakes go, well after breaking an all time snowiest winter last year of 94.5inches in my area, can we do it again? Maybe! We will see. It will be a darn frigid winter, but hoping the jet stream favors us too to receive sizable snowstorms and not mostly the NE. coastline. Good times ahead this Autumn season as forecasters have a better grip on what is going to happen this winter coming up, especially by November. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 If we have split flow as indicated, I doubt the STJ will be as suppressed as it is in your maps and will tend to take a more typical track across the SW and across TX/LA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late December, throughout January, and in early February. Precipitation will be below normal in the east and near normal in the west. Snowfall will be above normal in most of the region, with the snowiest periods in mid-December, early and mid-January, and early February. (source the old farmers almanac) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Why do you suspect the development of a SE ridge? With a -NAO/+AAM bias, that'd be almost impossible without an uber GOA vortex..but why are you saying that the aam is positve while it is negative now because i found that out by esrl noaa.gov website. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 but why are you saying that the aam is positve while it is negative now because i found that out by esrl noaa.gov website.The AAM is currently negative, yes, but that is due to intra seasonal MJO forcing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late December, throughout January, and in early February. Precipitation will be below normal in the east and near normal in the west. Snowfall will be above normal in most of the region, with the snowiest periods in mid-December, early and mid-January, and early February. 9source the old farmers almanac)Can you link us to it? Thanks Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 11, 2014 Report Share Posted August 11, 2014 Andrew has a good write up of how the long range winter forecasts are not something to hang your hat on.http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted August 13, 2014 Report Share Posted August 13, 2014 Haven't been on here in quite a while... Figure it's time to come out of the shadows as winter approaches. Currently leaning towards a cool winter for the center of the country. Have yet to pull up some analogs, since the ENSO situation is so volatile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2014 It's interesting to see a Summer time -NAO develop this time of year. One which we have not seen all of last Fall/Winter/Spring. Could this be the new pattern setting up for this upcoming winter??? To early to say, but the warm waters in the north Atlantic may have something to say about this. Due to this blocking pattern near Greenland, a substantial cool pool is going to develop in central Canada and the northern Plains. Keep an eye how this evolves in the Fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 13, 2014 Report Share Posted August 13, 2014 i forgot...what does -NAO typically mean for our part of the country? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 13, 2014 Report Share Posted August 13, 2014 according to kasimsweatherwatcher.co they are saying that the heaviest of the snow and cold will be east of chicago this winter but i disagree with this forecast because if we get those bowling ball panhandle hooks and col lows so that means that chicago will be in the crosshairs if these storms that cand cause blizzards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2014 i forgot...what does -NAO typically mean for our part of the country?Cold and Stormy pattern....it creates a trough in our region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 13, 2014 Report Share Posted August 13, 2014 MidwestWell below average temperatures. Should be near normal snowfall totals due to an expected storm track change. However, brief periods were southeast ridge makes and appearance, storm track could favor a very snowy Midwest.(source rapidwx) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 13, 2014 Report Share Posted August 13, 2014 thats what i was thinking a -NAO meant but wanted to be sure.yeah weatherman....it seems like a lot of winter outlooks are favoring the east/northeast for the heaviest of the snow as of right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 14, 2014 Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 I prefer to stay out of the climate change debate, although the only comment I do have to make is that suddenly I'm hearing a lot less of the "imminent danger" calls for additional melting with every year starting with 2007 and an ice-free summer by 2016, 2020, etc. (source accuweather fourms) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 14, 2014 Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 the chances of an el nino this year continues to go down hill so that means we will not have an el nino this yearand a modiki el nino will be in the cards for this up coming winter season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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