Preliminary Discussion for Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season

[primetime]

the chances of an el nino this year continues to go down hill so that means we will not have an el nino this yearand a modiki el nino will be in the cards for this up coming winter season.

 

1. If the 'chances' of el nino are going down hill, how can it be said definitively that 'we will not have an el nino'.  That statement doesn't make sense.

2. If there is no el nino, how can you have a modoki el nino?  That statement doesn't make sense.

[primetime]

I don't know, maybe my statements don't make sense....I suppose it's possible to have a modoki el nino while not having an official El Nino in the Nino 3.4 region via ONI and/or MEI.  We know of the sea surface anomaly pattern associated with El Nino Modoki, but I don't know that there is an official index that dictates whether one has actually occurred or not...although JAMSTEC does have an index for it.  At any rate, I don't see any evidence suggesting that we would transition to a modoki el nino with the max warm anomalies in the central Pacific, flanked by cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific and western Pacific...but we'll see.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

[Phil]

An El Niño Modoki must still register at Niño 3.4 to be classified as a Niño...the chances of El Niño have not gone down...the chances of a mod/strong Niño, however, have gone down

[james1976]

good little read about El Nino potential
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-fizzle-or-sizzle

[Tom]

Those waters off the PNW coast are warming considerably over the past 2 months and gaining in overall size.  Waters near Greenland continue to be above normal.  Not surprised we are already seeing blocking develop this early in the season.  This could be a nice trend as we head into Fall.

[tim the weatherman]

andrew at the weather centre  has 2 good articles up that he has detailed in both on about the long range computer models has corrected itself and now has the center in line for snowy conditions for the central us and he also detaled how the nao could be negative this winter so the east coast and the central us will be in line for nasty snowstorms this winter if the southeast ridge does develop for the lower greatlakes and he also mentioned about the lower midwest and the westren ohio valley will be in line for snowstorms after snowstorms.

[james1976]

Yeah, Andrew always has good stuff on his blog. Sounds like the long range models are leaning towards a weak El Nino, possible cold/stormy winter for central/Eastern US.

[Tom]

Saw this tweet from JB showing the Brazilian Meteograms for Chicago.  Certainly indicating a very snowy and active period Dec/Jan.

[tim the weatherman]

Saw this tweet from JB showing the Brazilian Meteograms for Chicago.  Certainly indicating a very snowy and active period Dec/Jan.

this could be big snowstorms and blizzards for chicago and if we get that southeast or not that means chicago metro area would be getting a nasty winter for 2014 2015 and jb also had said that we are in line for a major nasty winter because by the major oscilliation turning negative like the nao the epoand also we might have a weak el nino coming to play thanks to the kelvin wave and the dowmwelling also jb said this winter will be extreme.

[tim the weatherman]

just heard from jb too that later thisweek or nextweek that the northren rockies will have their first snow this year.

[Tom]

Taking a gander at the August's run of the JMA, I find it intriguing that every run of the past 5 or more continue to show a colder eastern U.S.   In fact, since it's June run the model has been getting colder and colder.  I posted those maps for your perusal.

 

If we take into account the new LRC cycle which begins in Oct and runs through roughly the end of November, I think its fair game to see that based on this months new run of the JMA Precip forecast it sets up a storm track right through the lower lakes.  If you believe in the LRC, then you should expect that this pattern will cycle through the entire winter.  Having said that, then this would mean most of our region is in fair game for significant snows.  Based on this run, MO/IL/IN/MI all are inline for above normal precip in the Fall months.  It's nice to see the model sniffing this pattern out.  However, we wont' know if it is accurate until the new LRC sets in.  Maybe this run gives us a hint of what to expect down the road.

[tim the weatherman]

Taking a gander at the August's run of the JMA, I find it intriguing that every run of the past 5 or more continue to show a colder eastern U.S.   In fact, since it's June run the model has been getting colder and colder.  I posted those maps for your perusal.

 

If we take into account the new LRC cycle which begins in Oct and runs through roughly the end of November, I think its fair game to see that based on this months new run of the JMA Precip forecast it sets up a storm track right through the lower lakes.  If you believe in the LRC, then you should expect that this pattern will cycle through the entire winter.  Having said that, then this would mean most of our region is in fair game for significant snows.  Based on this run, MO/IL/IN/MI all are inline for above normal precip in the Fall months.  It's nice to see the model sniffing this pattern out.  However, we wont' know if it is accurate until the new LRC sets in.  Maybe this run gives us a hint of what to expect down the road.

i agree if the stormtrack goes throgh the lower greatlakes then the southeastridge will have to be present for the lower great lakes to have big snowstorms to hit and people living in in/il/mo and mi needs to be aware with this forecast and chicago will be one midwest and greatlakes city will be in line for the nastiest winterstorms i bet it will take a same track like it did on groundhogs day of 2011.

[james1976]

Hopefully Iowa gets in the action. I always get worried with the cutters cuz they tend to miss me to the southeast.

[tim the weatherman]

according to my calculation that the what tom has said with the storm track going through the lower greatlakes this will take a similar track like it did on groundhogs day 2011 taking the low through ark to east of indianapolis in to oh.

[Phil]

There is no "storm track", in singularity. Every system operates differently within the boundary state it's confined to evolve within.

 

As for "cutters"...you need an early phasing between the polar/pacific jets to get enough deepening/momentum transfer. That requires a SE ridge and low AAM integral...difficult to get that in a Niño w/ a -QBO

[Tom]

how can say this with the lrc begins in october and go through novenber if it repeats it self through winter so that means the storm track can go right through the lower greatlakes and it doesn't have to be the aam nino and -obo like you said so look at tom's post and he'll tellyou.

We can't pin point a storm track just yet, but what we can look at are what the models (like the JMA, Brazilian) which are indicating above normal precip in our general region.  Not until the new LRC sets up by late November will we know how this storm track evolves.  Needless to say, it appears that it will be an active season in our region. 

 

@ James, yes that means you are also in the game.  Just because IA/S WI was not in the JMA's above normal precip forecast doesn't necessarily mean your out of the woods.

[tim the weatherman]

There is no "storm track", in singularity. Every system operates differently within the boundary state it's confined to evolve within.

 

As for "cutters"...you need an early phasing between the polar/pacific jets to get enough deepening/momentum transfer. That requires a SE ridge and low AAM integral...difficult to get that in a Niño w/ a -QBO

how can youn say that every system operates diffently with the storm track going through the lower greatlakes based by the models and the lrc first of all that the models has indicated that the storm track going through the lower greatlakes so that means the lrc starts in october and it repeats itself through winter so that means that the lower great lakes will be in for a long ride this winter.

[Phil]

how can youn say that every system operates diffently with the storm track going through the lower greatlakes based by the models and the lrc first of all that the models has indicated that the storm track going through the lower greatlakes so that means the lrc starts in october and it repeats itself through winter so that means that the lower great lakes will be in for a long ride this winter.

I don't understand this post at all...no offense.

[james1976]

I remember last winter we had a clipper parade. I tend to do well with those. Bring on the NW flow!

[Tom]

I remember last winter we had a clipper parade. I tend to do well with those. Bring on the NW flow!

I could see that happening again with ridging in the PAC NW, maybe a lot of hybrid Clippers...Saskatchewan Screamers baby!  I have a good feeling this will be another powdery season on tap, not too many wet snows.  We have a pretty good chance to see a long lasting snow cover around our region with replenishing bouts of snow.

[james1976]

Yeah i would love that. The higher ratio snows. We had 2nd all time highest snowfall last year....only 1.3" from #1.

[Tom]

Good Ol' Frankie...gotta love this guy...Get your snow shovels ready!  Prepare yourselves! 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLmTPGQlKP0

[tim the weatherman]

was just reading accuweather fourms there was a mention about a southeast ridge setting up so that means that the lower greatlakes might be getting col lows and panhandle hooks so chicago metro areas needs to be prepared for this. (3 Weak ridging along the SE coast is likely this winter, with coldest departures displaced NW of the east coast into the plains and GL's.source accuweather fourms)(also andrew at the weather centre said yesterday that we will have a modoki el nino for this upcoming winter and these are the ones that gives us the nasty winters).8) An interior storm track is more likely overall

[tim the weatherman]

The way the ENSO has been behaving lately, it appears the Se ridge will either be a no-show or be well displaced into the central-eastern Caribbean this Fall and Winter. (source accuweather fourms)

[james1976]

The way the ENSO has been behaving lately, it appears the Se ridge will either be a no-show or be well displaced into the central-eastern Caribbean this Fall and Winter. (source accuweather fourms)

that would suck

[Tom]

The recent Icelandic volcano that is beginning to erupt and is causing havoc in Europe with aviation could have major implications in the winter season.  Research suggest that those particles rise up very high into the stratosphere and create high latitude blocking in the winter months.  Here and there bits and pieces of the puzzle are coming together for another wild winter in the U.S.

[tim the weatherman]

Over the eastern third of the country, we are expecting an active storm track with a number of storms delivering copious amounts of snow and rain.(source farmers almanac)

[Tom]

I'm expecting a lot more phased systems to traverse the region this season with more blocking near Greenland.  Last year we only had 2 phased storms that tracked west of the GL, and some big whoppers that hit the Upper Midwest.  With less of a progressive pattern this winter season, I'm predicting stronger and slower storms systems.

[Tom]

Another new volcano has erupted in Papua New Guinea (just north of Australia) that is spewing ash 60,000 ft in the air.  I've heard that volcano's which erupt in the tropical pacific have a cooling affect in the oceans and which also cool the atmosphere.  So far in the past couple weeks we have seen 2 volcano's erupt...First, was in the arctic regions of Iceland and now in the Tropics.  Could this be a double whammy for cooling this winter season???

 

http://news.yahoo.com/volcano-erupts-png-spewing-ash-rock-officials-030256174.html

[Tom]

I don't think the one in Iceland is spewing anything.

If it does, volcano's in the arctic only need to spew ash up 30,000-50,000 ft bc the Stratosphere is lower up there.  This is going to be an interesting topic to watch in the days/weeks ahead.  Nonetheless, I'm seeing another brutal winter shaping up for the eastern 2/3 of the nation.

[Tom]

I'm sure we will be hearing some media reaction about snowfall in Alaska next week.  Check out the snow fall amounts being predicted on the GFS in Alaska and in Siberia!  What will the reason AGW will have now regarding early snowfall???  Global Warming is causing early snows???  LOL  Oh wait, didn't Al Gore predict an ice free Arctic in 2013???  What a scam!

[james1976]

SNOW!

[Tom]

I don't think the one in Iceland is spewing anything.

Say it aint so, it just started spewing ash this past Friday.  It will be interesting to see how this evolves.

[james1976]

http://cdn.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2015-USFA-Winter-Map-Small-420x240.jpg

[james1976]

.....farmer's almanac

[Tom]

 

http://cdn.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2015-USFA-Winter-Map-Small-420x240.jpg

 

finally some good FA news for Seattle.

 

Not sure how much you want to believe in the Farmer's Almanac.

[FiNsTa]

http://cdn.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2015-USFA-Winter-Map-Small-420x240.jpg

Wtf does 'stinging' mean, and what's the difference between 'bitter & snowy' and 'frigid & flaky'?

[Tom]

As much as someone wants to wishcash for their region.

Are you saying I'm wish casting?  Or are you just joking around for your region?

[Tom]

Above normal warm waters still brewing in the Bearing Sea as we begin the month of September.  The waters have warmed dramatically since late Spring and throughout the summer months.  This time last year, the warmth was centered farther south, but still had warm waters in the NE Pacific.  If current trends in the North Pacific continue, I'm very worried about the upcoming winter and how severe it could be in our region temperature wise.  The consistent NW Flow we saw last year could very will be evident this season.  If the Bearing Sea's waters maintain their warmth into the winter season, high latitude ridging will develop over that part of the world dislodging frigid air down into the eastern CONUS.  The highly wavy jet stream we saw last year, will repeat this year.  Just trying to show the facts, which translate to the reasoning behind my predictions.

 

Edit: Another note I wanted to mention was the neutral ENSO we are seeing at the moment in the central Pacific.  No El Nino showing up yet.

[Tom]

Thought I post this map here as well.  JB posted it on Twitter not too long ago.  Agreeing with what I posted a few hours ago.  Another severe winter in store for eastern CONUS.

 

Edit: That map just looks scary with all that warmth!