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Hey, where did all this ice come from?

 

From your post similar where looking at the "Antarctic" here more of course Chris, ...

 

But my own answer to this question more general, is that what's going on is basically a cyclical increase, in line with the idea that where and when things warm more significantly, even substantially, in and through the topicsi.e. closer to the equatorcold works, inversely proportionate to that warming, to consolidate better in and through the higher latitudes both North and South. ...

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Perhaps this is measured differently...but it looks good none the less:

 

 

screenhunter_1756-aug-08-05-20.gif

 

I'm not sure what the difference is.  I hear ice loss has been less than normal this week.  I get my graphs from National Snow and Ice Data center in Colordo.

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-
.. Re-emphasising here a bit. And clarifying, a bit otherwise (posts nos. 3 and 10 of mine tacked in here above), ...
 
My thinking more basic, is that this increase - or "cooling", itself cyclical, is tied (inverse proportionately.) to a more cyclical, warming, of things - looked at more in general, nearer to the equator. 
 
 A more cyclical and gradual cooling, 3 to maybe 5 years, in and through the extreme higher latitudes (both North and South.), looked at and where compared with an opposite cyclical and gradual warming, through the more extreme lower latitudes. This with then after this period of more pronounced change (more notable.), a graduated shift back more toward whatever is more normal, or "general".

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/553-enso-2014-15-prediction-thread/?p=28944

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Arctic sea ice continues to make 'gains' in the sense that it has plateaued for the last few days. As such its now about 600k sq km below normal compared to the 1000k it had been running around for a while.

hey Derrick. 

 

.. With my main study being of "cold" looked at more broadly, I've certainly been following this aspect of its presence more main-storage focused. Or at leastwise storage-related:  the term "Sea Ice" where looked at more generally being somewhat confusing. (i.e. ambiguous.)   @ @

 

In any case, what I'm seeing regarding this leaningalong with potential for further increase even at this point looked at more generally it would appearare the ideas, both together, that 1) .. days are getting longer, and so with this more basic factor, the potential for some amount of ongoing increase, certainly in the light of this more warm-season upturn over the past month and a half or so, .. this set with 2) .. that I've tried to focus on within the post accessible following here just below, .. with cold looked at more in general, i.e. main storage north, set with its contribution to generating colder air mass able to spread more south, this more specific level of "sea ice", perhaps being tapped from a tad-bit over the next two weeks or so. .. This, if with emphasis, post this period, its again beginning to show more clear signs of general increase as we move more into this fall and winter. .. This, with the idea - importantand as I've worked to point to within my post above, just previous to yours above this one. / ... my own expectation beingthat even if continuing to increase yet more, i.e. beyond this next colder season, that increase (leaning's.) beginning to slack off gradually, and turning back more toward a decrease, where looking beyond 3, to maybe 5 years.   (.. speckled, speculation.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/596-general-observations-noteworthy-generally/?p=31570

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Man, great pattern coming up for the Arctic basin. Could be a slow melt from here on out...

 

That is great to hear. I want those cold airmasses to start building up!

 

"... great pattern ...".  As in, ... ?

 

Perhaps you could elucidateexpanda bit with respect to this idea. (?)

 

General scope, timeframe, etc.. (?)

 

.. Even with respect to what you've suggested attached to it, otherwise. ?

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According to NSIDC, melt season in the Arctic has ended.  This year seemed headed to have the most ice extent since 2006, but winds compacted the ice.  Oddly enough, this may help the ice pack in the longer run.  The chunks of ice that collided and froze together, just before the flash freeze, will make for thicker MYI going into next summer.

 

http://s27.postimg.org/jmuistbk3/chart.png

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According to NSIDC, melt season in the Arctic has ended.  This year seemed headed to have the most ice extent since 2006, but winds compacted the ice.  Oddly enough, this may help the ice pack in the longer run.  The chunks of ice that collided and froze together, just before the flash freeze, will make for thicker MYI going into next summer.

 

Could you perhaps expand on your thinking here above Chris. ?

 

I'm having a little bit of trouble reconciling some of your different points, with others. 

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Could you perhaps expand on your thinking here above Chris. ?

 

I'm having a little bit of trouble reconciling some of your different points, with others. 

 

Its not particularly my thinking, rather an idea I heard somewhere else.  The theory is that the strong wave and wind action piles the chunks of ice up, giving it a thicker start than a frozen calm sea. 

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Here's another update.  This is sea ice volume, as opposed to extent which I've also posted in the past.  Apparently volume is a better indicator of the summer minimum.  If that's true, we'd be on track to have the highest minimum since 2006.  A lot depends on the summer weather pattern though.

 

http://s15.postimg.org/lyc8wzci3/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff_2sst.png

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Thanks for the updates Chris.

 

Not feeling good about how the Arctic ice does this year.

CFSv2 showing some hope for a cold summer up there and a pretty slow melt period going forward. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif

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Sea Ice extent in the Arctic is at a record low.

 

http://s23.postimg.org/nltj02b23/screenshot_15.png

 

 

 

 

Supposedly extent has no correlation to the minimum in September.  Volume is a better indicator but it doesn't get updated as often.

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I went to Barrow, AK this year in June from June 2-17th for work. I went up there with a company, all expenses paid and stayed at the top of the world hotel in Barrow, AK. It was a pretty cool trip, other then the work lol. I walked out onto the ice, something I've always wanted to do, and talked white extensively with a few of the Natives. I picked their brains about a multitude of subjects, of course including the sea ice and polar bears. They all told me that the ice has been receding faster and earlier the last decade. They say their elders also observed this same pattern in the mid 70's and again in the mid 80's then there was a long period that the ice stuck around for quite a while and receded just far enough to where it could still be seen from shore. Here are a few pictures:

 

http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image_1.jpeg

 

 

http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image_2.jpeg

 

^^^ I'm out there with my shorts on and romeo shoes. I remember sweating despite the air temp of 32 degrees. There wasn't a lick of wind that day. I guess I went out about 300 yards from the shore before coming to my senses and going back  :D

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I went to Barrow, AK this year in June from June 2-17th for work. I went up there with a company, all expenses paid and stayed at the top of the world hotel in Barrow, AK. It was a pretty cool trip, other then the work lol. I walked out onto the ice, something I've always wanted to do, and talked white extensively with a few of the Natives. I picked their brains about a multitude of subjects, of course including the sea ice and polar bears. They all told me that the ice has been receding faster and earlier the last decade. They say their elders also observed this same pattern in the mid 70's and again in the mid 80's then there was a long period that the ice stuck around for quite a while and receded just far enough to where it could still be seen from shore. Here are a few pictures:

 

http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image_1.jpeg

 

 

http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image_2.jpeg

 

^^^ I'm out there with my shorts on and romeo shoes. I remember sweating despite the air temp of 32 degrees. There wasn't a lick of wind that day. I guess I went out about 300 yards from the shore before coming to my senses and going back  :D

 

Your job is cooler than mine. I've always wanted to go to Barrow. What restaurants did you eat at?

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Your job is cooler than mine. I've always wanted to go to Barrow. What restaurants did you eat at?

Ate at the Top of the World Hotel restaurant. Had a caribou burger there a few times. Also ate a place called Northern Lights. Owned and operated by a nice Japanese couple who make some decent american food. The north slope of Alaska is definitely its own part of the world. You have to really focus on the fact that its literally cut off from the rest of the world. Everything is either flown in or barged in(barges only run during summer). The local grocery store, called AC, is where I bought groceries. Simple things like cheese and lunch meat and a loaf of bread and handful of yogurts racked up a $60 bill  :o

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This year will go down as the second or third lowest sea ice extent.

 

 

As long as we don't have a year go lower than 2012 we can say the bleeding has stopped.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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