Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Folks, we have just about made it through 2020, but first, we need to get through the last month of the calendar year and the start of met Winter! Who's ready?? If there is anyone on here that is more eager to see a fast start to winter...raise your hands up in the air! Finally, after many false starts in years past, most of our Sub across the eastern/southern tier will indeed be "flipping the script" this year in 2020. After analyzing a ton of data and using LR pattern recognition techniques, it does appear highly likely that the long awaited start to met Winter will feature an exciting start if you live in the eastern Sub. On the flip side, those of you up north and even out west, you'll prob have to wait till mid month for some action. Where shall we begin??? Let's start at the top of the atmosphere at 10mb and focus on the evolution of the Polar Vortex. Even though the models are predicting a strong PV, similar to 2013-14, it does favor a NW Flow aloft and some slight influence of warming near Siberia/N PAC that will influence the PV and "funnel" cold air into North America. My gut told me early on that this would be the year of the return of the "Greenland Block". Wouldn't ya know it, in a timely fashion, it will appear as we open up December. It took a while, but in recent days, all the modeling is picking up on an expansive block to open up December. When do I think the action will shift farther west??? Well, the tool that has been rock solid for me this season is the clues up in the Strat and where warm/cold pools are forming. Take a look at the last frames in the 50mb animation below right around Nov 20-22nd...you see the blue colors (trough) shift from the EC down into the SW. This is when we will enter a period of SW Flow aloft and I think this is the time when the LRC had some interesting storm systems. I'll have to look back in more detail in the days ahead. I'm guessing the Week of the 13th (lucky #) will feature a mid month rally, or rather, a very active period. Using the BSR as guidance, there are potentially multiple storm systems we will be tracking during this week. The target period for when this SW Flow pattern starts is between the 12th-15th and the looks according to the BSR would translate towards a "cutter", may be hard cutter....followed by more storm systems leading up towards the Winter Solstice period that would track farther south. Could this be a "share the wealth" month for all??? Let's hope mother nature can contribute to all of us in the snow dept and have a fantastic holiday season! Let's discuss.... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Gonna be cold and dry and prolly windy for my area next week on the backside of that big storm. Yuck. Oh well.....I'm glad someone in here looks to score bigly as we open met Winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Maybe Michigan will actually have a Winter this year! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 GFS much further east 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Lol, congrats Kentucky. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 We'll see what actually happens this month. We've gone from this is going to be a 6 month long winter, to November turning into a nothing burger, to just last week saying everything doesn't show winter until maybe February, to suddenly this week December is going to be amaze-balls and I knew it all along!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 I’m surprised the Dakotas aren’t buried yet in snow 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 12z Euro with an OH bomb...will post maps when fully loaded...huge hit for all of IN and W MI... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Euro keeping hopes alive for a major snowstorm...so the model mayhem continues for the next several days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 12Z Euro. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12Z Euro. This is insane! Historic open to December....??? December to Remember....#flipthescript2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 12z Euro...another look... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 This storm stalls for days in Oh.....wow! 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 It becomes a highly-amplified, blocked-up pattern, but for everyone too far west to get anything from the potentially-big eastern storm it's a total snoozer. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Niko said: This storm stalls for days in Oh.....wow! I love it...just hope the Euro is right and is accurately picking up on the blocking pattern. Man, what a beauty of a storm....loads of precip and just enough cold air. Systems this powerful can generate their "own brewed" cold as well. Those finer details can get ironed out later. I'm liking the trends at this range. Max wind gust top out around 55 mph along the lake to top it all off. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 When on earth will I ever see a map like that for mby??? Jealous! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 brb, moving to Lexington Kentucky 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 28 minutes ago, Tom said: I love it...just hope the Euro is right and is accurately picking up on the blocking pattern. Man, what a beauty of a storm....loads of precip and just enough cold air. Systems this powerful can generate their "own brewed" cold as well. Those finer details can get ironed out later. I'm liking the trends at this range. Max wind gust top out around 55 mph along the lake to top it all off. Its a beast! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 This system look familiar to me. I expect this to trend colder aswell. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: This system look familiar to me. I expect this to trend colder aswell. Do the ensembles go out further than the op runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Do the ensembles go out further than the op runs? Yes they go out to 360hrs. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Accu-Weather feels confident that this track plays...... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 So far out. Euro has been bad lately, hopefully it gets some support soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, james1976 said: When on earth will I ever see a map like that for mby??? Jealous! 100% agree. Not a flake or drop predicted for the foreseeable future around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 It's funny how one run can get you pumped up, but then realize this isn't your storm in W. Michigan. Going to be APP/ East coast storm. Congrats Pennsylvania and the Upper NE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: It's funny how one run can get you pumped up, but then realize this isn't your storm in W. Michigan. Going to be APP/ East coast storm. Congrats Pennsylvania and the Upper NE. Needs to get it's butt further north for sure! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: I love it...just hope the Euro is right and is accurately picking up on the blocking pattern. Man, what a beauty of a storm....loads of precip and just enough cold air. Systems this powerful can generate their "own brewed" cold as well. Those finer details can get ironed out later. I'm liking the trends at this range. Max wind gust top out around 55 mph along the lake to top it all off. After the UK lost the phased look, was sure the Euro Would follow. I've seen the EC go huge 3 consecutive runs just to fold it's hand and admit to bluffing. I think it has gone 4 in a row now so I'm in uncharted territory tbh. It will be interesting to see if it can lead the way and shine-up it's tarnished crown. Ofc I'm cheering for that (and a little bump north). 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: It's funny how one run can get you pumped up, but then realize this isn't your storm in W. Michigan. Going to be APP/ East coast storm. Congrats Pennsylvania and the Upper NE. 2 hours ago, Stacsh said: So far out. Euro has been bad lately, hopefully it gets some support soon. Need the Euro strength but the GEM's track = KISMET Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 Not sure, but I think the GEFS inundates the "Lakes" w tremendous amount of snowfall. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 GFS OP just looks like a mess. Not saying it can't happen but its super unorganized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 GRR gives a very good write-up treatment of the situation as of earlier today. Much more impressive breakdown than typically seen. -- Possible wintry weather early next week -- Projecting the location and intensity of phased systems is a vexing issue, and next week is no exception. A trough is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest region and models are coming into agreement that the southern portion of the trough will detach and become an upper low cutoff over the Four Corners region. This upper low is forecast to migrate east over the Rockies before attempting to phase with a secondary, digging trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Where this phasing occurs will determine if we get significant snowfall or not. Not surprisingly, current long range guidance continues to feature spread with where the upper level phasing induces low level cyclogenesis. A probabilistic approach based on ensemble data indicates more members are favoring cyclogenesis across the lower Ohio Valley or Appalachians Monday into Tuesday, as opposed to the Great Lakes. However, depending on how intense the upper level phasing is, a negatively tilted upper low could substantially pivot and deepen the surface low toward the north/northwest, potentially impacting Lower Michigan. That scenario is supported by some ECE members though most others prefer an Appalachian/East Coast track. The GEFS and CMC members favor the Appalachian track as well. Let`s suppose the scenario occurs where a deep/intense phasing of the systems near the Great Lakes induces a deep surface low across northern OH / southeast MI. Current and past runs of the ECMWF/GEM would support double digit snow totals (spread out over a couple days) across much of the region, which would make this the first significant winter storm to impact Michigan this season. However, assuming the phasing occurs across the Appalachians (ECE, GFS, GEFS, CMC), we see only minor snowfall, or perhaps none at all. Current odds are tilted in this direction but it is obviously something we are watching closely given the higher impacts that could potentially occur. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 28 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GRR gives a very good write-up treatment of the situation as of earlier today. Much more impressive breakdown than typically seen. -- Possible wintry weather early next week -- Projecting the location and intensity of phased systems is a vexing issue, and next week is no exception. A trough is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest region and models are coming into agreement that the southern portion of the trough will detach and become an upper low cutoff over the Four Corners region. This upper low is forecast to migrate east over the Rockies before attempting to phase with a secondary, digging trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Where this phasing occurs will determine if we get significant snowfall or not. Not surprisingly, current long range guidance continues to feature spread with where the upper level phasing induces low level cyclogenesis. A probabilistic approach based on ensemble data indicates more members are favoring cyclogenesis across the lower Ohio Valley or Appalachians Monday into Tuesday, as opposed to the Great Lakes. However, depending on how intense the upper level phasing is, a negatively tilted upper low could substantially pivot and deepen the surface low toward the north/northwest, potentially impacting Lower Michigan. That scenario is supported by some ECE members though most others prefer an Appalachian/East Coast track. The GEFS and CMC members favor the Appalachian track as well. Let`s suppose the scenario occurs where a deep/intense phasing of the systems near the Great Lakes induces a deep surface low across northern OH / southeast MI. Current and past runs of the ECMWF/GEM would support double digit snow totals (spread out over a couple days) across much of the region, which would make this the first significant winter storm to impact Michigan this season. However, assuming the phasing occurs across the Appalachians (ECE, GFS, GEFS, CMC), we see only minor snowfall, or perhaps none at all. Current odds are tilted in this direction but it is obviously something we are watching closely given the higher impacts that could potentially occur. Looks like they think it’s less likely to hit the midwest despite euro’s consistency in the track to do just that. What you thinking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 18z EC with snow still falling over Mich at the end of the run. It's a little weaker than it has been but the track is still good for you guys. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 18z EC with snow still falling over Mich at the end of the run. It's a little weaker than it has been but the track is still good for you guys. Thx, btw, what's the "Ens [C]" exactly? And yeah, that's a lot weaker actually, but glad to see it not just vanish. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thx, btw, what's the "Ens [C]" exactly? And yeah, that's a lot weaker actually, but glad to see it not just vanish. The Euro Control. The CMC held serve aswell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: The Euro Control. The CMC held serve aswell. Nice! (CMC and GEM are one and the same, no? confused by GRR's AFD saying the GEM was for the Lakes, but the CMC was more east) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: Nice! (CMC and GEM are one and the same, no? confused by GRR's AFD saying the GEM was for the Lakes, but the CMC was more east) I always thought so, that is confusing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Clinton said: I always thought so, that is confusing. Here it is.. Quote Current and past runs of the ECMWF/GEM would support double digit snow totals (spread out over a couple days) across much of the region, which would make this the first significant winter storm to impact Michigan this season. However, assuming the phasing occurs across the Appalachians (ECE, GFS, GEFS, CMC), we see only minor snowfall, or perhaps none at all. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 0z GEM comes up east of the Mitt and keeps moving instead of curling back and spinning around for 2 extra days. It even clips my county with a second storm 48 hrs after the first one has moved out of the lakes. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 3 hours ago, whatitdo said: Looks like they think it’s less likely to hit the midwest despite euro’s consistency in the track to do just that. What you thinking? It's tough to say at this point if the Euro is legit. Phase-bombs are a serious rarity around the OHV/Lakes region so that would argue against it. Over the years a model or two will flash a run showing such in the fantasy long range, but then immediately drop it. Iirc, there was a better looking chance leading up to Christmas of 2014 but the cold air failed to get pulled south out of Canada so it ended up a dud. Dec 2014 was a warm month similar to what we've got going on right now fwiw. I referenced the Nov 1950 storm which gave this area about 7" but that was during an extremely cold autumn regime. There is Nov 2-3. 1966 which phased and delivered the goods (12" KBTL) and the only other time I've seen a mild regime go bomb cyclone for Michigan was 11/16/89 and that one had zero degree airmass just north of Superior to work with. Maps in order of events. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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