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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

Not sure, but I think the GEFS inundates the "Lakes" w tremendous amount of snowfall.

That'd be great, but I'm not seeing that from the GEFS. Where did you see that bud?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As a footnote to my historic early season bomb storm post above, I have to add this comment. Traditionally, when the models showed a storm from about 120 hrs out, there was a good chance it would happen and be worthy of starting a thread. Tonight's 0z GEM run has snow breaking out already at h96 so we're easily inside the range when models would've lost the storm completely if it were a "false flag". The only caveat ofc is we are talking about a potential phase-bomb which are the trickiest of tricky scenarios for the models to handle.

Tonight's GEM run actually has 3 snow-makers in the next 10 days. This map includes just the first potential phaser:

 

20201126 0z GEM h156 Snowfall-SLR.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z Euro goes towards the GEM with both track/intensity & less sit-n-spin. Ofc everything is less stunning, including total snowfall but perhaps more realistic tbh.

 

20201126 0z Euro h168 SN SLR.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I like this from APX

Quote

The forecast starts out relatively easy then becomes increasingly
complex. First the easy part, zonal flow aloft Saturday night into
Sunday yields precipitation free and mild conditions. A surface cold
front then moves across northern Michigan Sunday afternoon and
evening, perhaps igniting a rain or snow shower. All bets are off
after that. The complex part hinges around whether the northern jet
is able to merge with the southern jet early next week. I mean it
likely will eventually but exactly how far to our east this occurs
will determine impacts (if any). Models continue to advertise a
deepening area of low pressure developing to our south and fairly
far to our east but some models retrograde this system to the west
all the way into the western Great Lakes as it becomes captured by
an upper low associated with the northern jet stream. Looking at the
50 ensemble members from the 25/00z ECMWF, close to half retrograde
the low and bring several inches of snow (along with blowing snow)
to northern Michigan while the other half keep it well east with
little to no impact on the area. It`s a tough call honestly on what
the outcome will be and while retrogression is possible it is a
fairly rare occurrence. The farther east solution seems to be more
realistic imo (in my opinion) at this point. Time will tell on how
this system unfolds which will be important since there are
currently stark differences in the possible amount of wind and
precipitation. Keep appraised of later forecasts for any changes in
thinking. Will keep pops in the chance category for now and hope we
can pin down the details as we get closer. Mild temperatures once
again Sunday will be followed by forecast readings closer to normal
during the first half of next week.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z GFS has decided maybe it wants back in the party after all. 980's SLP seems to be in vogue now vs. the crazy 970's being flashed before.

 

20201126 0z GFS h126 Surf.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It is looking more and more likely that there will be an impactful system to track..time for a storm thread today after 12z runs???  With that being said, the 00z Euro continues to show a powerful storm but the 00z Ukie now the only model not showing anything when it was the one which was most consistent a day or two ago.  Chitown riding the edge with this one as well as WI peeps.

 

1.png

 

 

00z EPS holding steadfast and pointing towards an OHV major winter storm in the making...I think this storm may make up all the dud years this region has recently seen.  Ya'll ready???

2.png

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While sitting here and sippin' on my coffee, flipping through multiple windows open on my comp and analyzing a ton of data...I'm encouraged to see continued support that an interesting month lies ahead for the start of met Winter (esp the eastern/southern Sub).  For weeks and months, the majority of the climate models were advertising a blow torch December for most of our Sub.  The caveat??  They all seemed to miss the blocking signal near Greenland and now what is looking like a western NAMER ridge that will grow heading into Week 2 of the month.  The latest JMA weeklies came in this morning and do favor the eastern CONUS trough for most of the 1st half of December, but then I see a more traditional signal for a La Nina pattern setting up with the N stream coming back into play for the second half of the month.  Depending on the exact length of the LRC, I will say, I'm expecting to see more of a SW Flow develop by the middle and end of the month.  Those of you out farther west and north will then begin to share in the wealth and see more chances of storminess.

Week 2...

2.png

Temp...

Y202011.D2512_gl2.png

 

Week 3-4...that Greenland Block is gonna rock this month...

 

3.png

Temp/Precip patter...I think the model is too warm in the Plains/Upper MW...should trend colder and wetter...the wet signal near the GL's/N Rockies/Upper MW should expand South IMO...

 

 

Y202011.D2512_gl2.png

 

 Notice the upward motion across the Indian Ocean and the sinking air across the central PAC.  These are favorable colder MJO phases for Week 3-4 and that would lead us up towards the Winter Solstice/Christmas Holiday.  Things are really looking promising!

 

 

Y202011.D2512_gl0.png

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Long ways ahead, but there may be a signal growing that a SSW event could be brewing right around the Week of the 13th or just prior across Siberia.  This can lead to perturbing the PV in a similar fashion as it did back in '13-'14, supporting a more "reflective" look which can seed some real cold arctic air into North America.  Interestingly, the models are starting to see a much colder look by the 2nd week of Dec.  00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast and 500mb pattern is telling me to watch for colder trends.

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

00z GEFS 500mb...way back in Sept/Oct, the pattern near Scandinavia was catching my eye and would be a crucial part of this Winter's pattern.  It is indeed playing a big role for North America.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@OKwx2k4 Oz Euro has a gift for ya.  The EC went bonkers with this and produced a 12 inch storm in your back yard.

1607169600-IUKN65NM4Gc.png

He may have several chances for winter storms this month from all indications.  The blocking is really going to justify if the southern stream converge with the N stream later this month.

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Long ways ahead, but there may be a signal growing that a SSW event could be brewing right around the Week of the 13th or just prior across Siberia.  This can lead to perturbing the PV in a similar fashion as it did back in '13-'14, supporting a more "reflective" look which can seed some real cold arctic air into North America.  Interestingly, the models are starting to see a much colder look by the 2nd week of Dec.  00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast and 500mb pattern is telling me to watch for colder trends.

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

00z GEFS 500mb...way back in Sept/Oct, the pattern near Scandinavia was catching my eye and would be a crucial part of this Winter's pattern.  It is indeed playing a big role for North America.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

Is there enough time to dislodge the PV by the 2nd week of Dec?  

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Just now, Clinton said:

Is there enough time to dislodge the PV by the 2nd week of Dec?  

I don't think it will dislodge the PV but more or less send a "finger" into N.A. based on the maps I posted above.  I do firmly believe the Hudson Bay vortex will be back in action by Week 2.  I hope to dial in on this pattern and the LRC over the next few days.

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I think the main issue here is which track does this storm take. We all know that there will be a high impact winterstorm.

Question is:  does it go a little too far east, is it a Appalachian runner and etc.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That'd be great, but I'm not seeing that from the GEFS. Where did you see that bud?

Nevermind..mistake on my end!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Euro was a sweet one here last nite for SEMI...WHOA! Spins and spins for days east from mby, dumping snow like crazy. Danggggg!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol.... NW OH is going to have a big dog a few months after I move out of there.

Meanwhile, absolute zero snow accumulation on every model West of the Mississippi.

I was just thinking about this lack of snowfall, especially for the Northern Plains. We really need a big snow year in Colorado and Wyoming for snowmelt in the Spring to start refilling reservoirs. Not a very good start for sure as the drought around here drags on. 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

It is looking more and more likely that there will be an impactful system to track..time for a storm thread today after 12z runs???  With that being said, the 00z Euro continues to show a powerful storm but the 00z Ukie now the only model not showing anything when it was the one which was most consistent a day or two ago.  Chitown riding the edge with this one as well as WI peeps.

 

1.png

 

 

00z EPS holding steadfast and pointing towards an OHV major winter storm in the making...I think this storm may make up all the dud years this region has recently seen.  Ya'll ready???

2.png

That EPS Snow shield is like Jan '78 shifted just a few counties east. Incredible. 21" total in my old home region of SEMI. That'd be like #2 all-time to 1967 for that area. Nuts! I do fine here, but man SWMI needs to get it's winter mojo back! Even mentioned in that Wood TV8 winter outlook how SEMI beat SWMI in snow totals last winter and now potentially scores better with this system. Niko buddy, you're styling over there. This could be Nov 30/Dec 1 1974 revisited.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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42 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol.... NW OH is going to have a big dog a few months after I move out of there.

Meanwhile, absolute zero snow accumulation on every model West of the Mississippi.

I hinted at bad winters chasing you around the country in the Nov thread. Like in deer hunting, two styles. You move about seeking deer, or you wait it out for them to come to you, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thought this was interesting in the 11/26 morning Wilmington (OH) AFD. They seem to be downplaying things the same way TOP KS always does.🙂 I thought the comparison to the Snow Bowl storm was interesting (bolded).

 

Quote


Keys to remember about some of the extreme snowfall amounts being
seen on a few deterministic/ensemble members:  1) these static ratio
amounts do not account for the very warm ground temperatures
(remember Sunday`s temps in the 50s) 2) these do not take into
account the degree of compaction that would occur with a long
duration wet snow event that is leading to some of the very high
totals 3) boundary layer temperatures will remain 30-35 during any
snow that falls which means slower accumulation rates and more
compaction especially during daylight hours and 4) this storm has no
bitter arctic air in place or available to tap - unlike a very
similar setup 70 years ago when the Snow Bowl storm produced in
excess of 12-15" in the ILN CWA. That storm had surface temps in the
single digits and teens. Also pointing against the extreme solutions
is a very narrow dendritic growth zone - less than 100mb on forecast
soundings.  So we will need to watch ensembles closely in the next
couple of days to see if a trend emerges on a number of fronts.
Definitely a forecast to stay tuned to through the holiday weekend.

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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45 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That EPS Snow shield is like Jan '78 shifted just a few counties east. Incredible. 21" total in my old home region of SEMI. That'd be like #2 all-time to 1967 for that area. Nuts! I do fine here, but man SWMI needs to get it's winter mojo back! Even mentioned in that Wood TV8 winter outlook how SEMI beat SWMI in snow totals last winter and now potentially scores better with this system. Niko buddy, you're styling over there. This could be Nov 30/Dec 1 1974 revisited.

You mean this:👇

Surface Maps below are from 7am Sun 12/1/74 and 7am Mon 12/2/74, it's a shame the Sun 1pm is not available as that's when the heaviest snow was falling (we are talking several hours of 1/4 mile vsby or less)! You can also see by the maps, only the Southeast portion of the state was affected with the heaviest /near 20"/ in the Detroit Metro area!

https://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/events/thanksgiving1.jpg

https://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/events/thanksgiving2.jpg

This looks like it was a doozy bud. Were you living in SEMI at that point of time.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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13 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Thought this was interesting in the 11/26 morning Wilmington (OH) AFD. They seem to be downplaying things the same way TOP KS always does.🙂 I thought the comparison to the Snow Bowl storm was interesting (bolded).

 

 

Yep. Same contrasts/concerns I posted about in the Nov thread last night.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 hours ago, Niko said:

You mean this:👇

Surface Maps below are from 7am Sun 12/1/74 and 7am Mon 12/2/74, it's a shame the Sun 1pm is not available as that's when the heaviest snow was falling (we are talking several hours of 1/4 mile vsby or less)! You can also see by the maps, only the Southeast portion of the state was affected with the heaviest /near 20"/ in the Detroit Metro area!

https://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/events/thanksgiving1.jpg

https://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/events/thanksgiving2.jpg

This looks like it was a doozy bud. Were you living in SEMI at that point of time.

Yes. A stalled out blocked-up storm that sat and dumped huge fatties. I was growing up in Genesee Cnty then, which per the records got 8" yet it doesn't stick out in my memory. I do remember my aunt calling from Detroit saying the flakes were half dollar size there in Grosse Pointe.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOL, 0z Euro has indeed gone dudsville with Monday's storm. One major concern I mentioned was the lack of truly cold air to "energize" the phase into the monster shown by the Euro for days, and flashed by other models as well. Arctic air made the other November great ones what they were.

GRR did a nice job breaking down this exact problem. Seems like the East Coast is the only place where large storms can generate heavy snow with marginal cold. I saw that with the Dec 1992 bomb that the NWS was warning on the radio that it might hit Michigan. Instead, the phase was late and we got sunny and 40F while eastern PA was getting an absolute puke-fest of massive flakes. Bastardi had 33" in his backyard from that monster.

Quote



--Winter weather possible early next week--

Last bullet but probably first one read by many. Did you say snow?
Well, I said "winter weather" but yes some snow is possible next
week. Right now it looks like there maybe some snow around as
early as Monday morning commute and lasting perhaps into
Wednesday. The best chance of accumulating snow would be along the
lakeshore and perhaps along and east of U.S. route 127. Not
anything like nailed down just yet, but that is a very general
idea. Impacts would most likely be slippery commutes with a few
isolated utility disruptions where the snow is wet and sticky.

How much / bad could this one be? Well, there have been some numerical
model forecasts that indicate a track, character, and associated
upper level jet streams that are similar to those of past historic
MI winter storms. That is a deep low pressure and upper level
system that moves up the Ohio River Valley and then stalls for a
day or so over Lake Erie / Ontario while spinning copious Gulf
and Atlantic moisture back into the arctic air plunging southward
over MI. However, in the present case most of the ensemble
numerical model guidance is leaning towards a near miss. Rather
they indicate the more likely scenario is for some blustery
weather with a few periods of light snow / snow showers. Still the
first snowy commute of the season on I-96, I-69, or I-94 to name
a few is always a challenge.

Looking at this from an ingredients point of view, it looks like
the injection of cold air gets cut off early in the development
of the storm (lack of cold / arctic air over MI). The result is
less than optimal snow growth and precipitation efficiencies
resulting in lower snow potential. It also limits the overall
strength of the storm and the likelihood that it stalls / lingers
nearby.

Secondly, It involves the merging of two initially separate upper
level systems. The first is currently moving through the four
corners region of the U.S. while the second is located off the
west coast of Washington. They will likely merge or phase
together somewhere over the eastern U.S. on Mon-Tue. If they
merge too early or late then MI does not get very much snow.
Finally, they may not merge at all which commonly happens but is
unlikely this time around. The latest indications are leaning
towards the merging / phasing too late to put MI in the bullseye.

One last thought from a climatological perspective. While
meteorologically interesting and even exciting, early winter is
not the best time of year for this kind of storm. Early in the
season, the jet stream tends to be more progressive and while
there are certainly big Fall and early Winter storms, they tend to
move right along. So they tend to hit hard and fast. The event we
are facing needs time to fully develop and those atmospheric
conditions are more likely in mid to late winter and even early
spring when the jet stream tends to evolve into more loopy
blocking patterns.

@Tom I say we either delete my thread, or revamp the title to the more typical early season event it will end up being.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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30 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This would be interesting.

500hv.conus.png

Looks like bowling ball energy. Again wasted with lack of cold

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This would be interesting.

500hv.conus.png

00z EPS jumping on the idea of a S MW/Lower Lakes winter storm...@Clinton, good call on this one a while back....this won't be the last one that's coming down the road.  I expect to another one between the 11th-13th. The winter pattern is now beginning to set up shop.  It's going to get busy for a lot of across the eastern/southern Sub.

 1.png

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Love, Love, Love the way last night's Euro Weeklies have gone and fit the ideas that Winter will spread across our Sub by the middle of the month.  I'm diggin' the pattern that is setting up and the models seemingly are veering away from a blow torch December.  Blocking is setting up shop in all the right places in the modeling.  While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet.

Check out the models thinking and provides us a potential glimpse of an action packed rally towards the Solstice and Holiday stretch....Dreaming of a White Christmas???  

1.png

 

2.png

 

The LR clues continue to support the idea that Winter is coming and may be coming hard by the start of the 12th/13th....all eyes point towards eastern Siberia and the alignment of the PV will undoubtedly funnel arctic air into the pattern.  Something I did notice from the Euro Weeklies is the displacement of the Polar Vortex into our side of the Pole towards the end of the month and into January.  This may be an important piece to the puzzle as we flip the calendar into 2021.  BTW, hope you all had a relaxing and enjoyable Thanksgiving with family and friends.  Let the holiday season begin!

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

00z EPS jumping on the idea of a S MW/Lower Lakes winter storm...@Clinton, good call on this one a while back....this won't be the last one that's coming down the road.  I expect to another one between the 11th-13th. The winter pattern is now beginning to set up shop.  It's going to get busy for a lot of across the eastern/southern Sub.

 1.png

Wow the 0z Euro was pure gold.  Love those maps you posted this morning.   Glad the storm on the 4th is showing up, hope I can get a little white gold on the 4th, not sure it will look quite like this but until then I can dream.  @OKwx2k4you need to watch this one.

1607212800-gPN2mvqEsAs.png

 

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5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I accidentally posted this in November.  But to reiterate the above the Euro is hinting at another storm system.  Not good on this run for Eastern Iowa, but that obviously can change in a  hurry.  Hopefully something materializes. 

Wow, congrats Clinton and OKwx with the Kuchera totals on that one.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Temps keep going the wrong way in the extended.  Need systems to create their own cold air.  Cut off from any real cold, even with cold fronts.  Most storms in the extended will be rainers.  Good pattern but just no real cold air to play with.  2020 man.  

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

MJO stays in the 4-5 range throughout the extended. Exactly the opposite of what we want. Hooray!

Depends on which model you believe....GEFS, yes...but EURO says not...

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

GEFS also trending less amped into the warmer Phases...Euro has been steadfast in the "null" phase...

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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