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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Temps keep going the wrong way in the extended.  Need systems to create their own cold air.  Cut off from any real cold, even with cold fronts.  Most storms in the extended will be rainers.  Good pattern but just no real cold air to play with.  2020 man.  

Unfortunately, until I see otherwise, I have to take your side on this. I just looped the Euro thru d10 which includes the time of that huge snowfall map late next week and I didn't see any cold plunge that would indicate that storm's outcome will be any different than the fade-away we are witnessing with the current situation. Get some true arctic air involved, then get back with me. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The last 10 years have not been good for a white Christmas at Grand Rapids. In the last 10 years Grand Rapids has only had snow on the ground 40% of the time with 2017 with 3" 2016 with 5" 2013 with 8" and 2010 with 2" All the other years had no snow on the ground for Christmas. At Grand Rapids the current 30 year average is 63% but that looks to go down with the next 30 year average. The average since 1963 is 67% and since 1950 64% and since records started at Grand Rapids 63% of the time Christmas has had snow on the ground so the last 10 years has shown a big drop.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Love, Love, Love the way last night's Euro Weeklies have gone and fit the ideas that Winter will spread across our Sub by the middle of the month.  I'm diggin' the pattern that is setting up and the models seemingly are veering away from a blow torch December.  Blocking is setting up shop in all the right places in the modeling.  While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet.

Check out the models thinking and provides us a potential glimpse of an action packed rally towards the Solstice and Holiday stretch....Dreaming of a White Christmas???  

1.png

 

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The LR clues continue to support the idea that Winter is coming and may be coming hard by the start of the 12th/13th....all eyes point towards eastern Siberia and the alignment of the PV will undoubtedly funnel arctic air into the pattern.  Something I did notice from the Euro Weeklies is the displacement of the Polar Vortex into our side of the Pole towards the end of the month and into January.  This may be an important piece to the puzzle as we flip the calendar into 2021.  BTW, hope you all had a relaxing and enjoyable Thanksgiving with family and friends.  Let the holiday season begin!

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

"While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet."

 

What I read in that is we get a good track next two weeks, but insufficient cold. Then, when cold makes it's appearance, the action will be where it was in October, west end of the Sub and we'll be on the warm side of their snow systems again. Do I have that right? When do you see cold getting eastward over our way?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Unfortunately, until I see otherwise, I have to take your side on this. I just looped the Euro thru d10 which includes the time of that huge snowfall map late next week and I didn't see any cold plunge that would indicate that storm's outcome will be any different than the fade-away we are witnessing with the current situation. Get some true arctic air involved, then get back with me. 

As I have seen it, any substantial cold will come after the 11th which should brew up a large winter storm.  That's when real Winter will arrive.  For the time being, its going to marginal and a tease for some peeps on here.  It's like nature is getting things geared up after a torch of a November.

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7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

"While the eastern and southern Sub will be the primary focus of action over the next 2 weeks, by the time we enter the Week of the 13th, Winter will settle in quite vigorously I believe and the Flow aloft will allow Arctic air to penetrate down across the central U.S. along with a nice southern stream jet."

 

What I read in that is we get a good track next two weeks, but insufficient cold. Then, when cold makes it's appearance, the action will be where it was in October, west end of the Sub and we'll be on the warm side of their snow systems again. Do I have that right? When do you see cold getting eastward over our way?

Negative, the action will be widespread and NOT like October that supported a stout SER and hard cutters.  It'll be the same pattern but different.  There will also be sufficient cold infiltrated into our Sub.  The cold comes down south the Week of the 13th which I've been saying for a little bit now.

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19 minutes ago, Tom said:

Negative, the action will be widespread and NOT like October that supported a stout SER and hard cutters.  It'll be the same pattern but different.  There will also be sufficient cold infiltrated into our Sub.  The cold comes down south the Week of the 13th which I've been saying for a little bit now.

Oh, good. Let's hope it follows through. Gives me a little more time to finish outdoor decorations.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Oh, good. Let's hope it follows through. Gives me a little more time to finish outdoor decorations.

Same here...I'm actually kinda glad I'll be missing the storm early next week for this reason...LOL, but not for the next one lining up around the 4th/5th!

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GFS consistent with zero precip in modeling range. Euro not much better. Unpopular opinion, but I hope winter doesn't briefly pop it's head Christmas week since I'll be out of town then. 😬

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Now , here is something ya don't see everyday...

From NOAA: "Child Abduction Emergency"

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A gorgeous weekend on tap for SEMI, especially the first half. Temps will be in the 40s w increasing clouds for Sunday. Great opportunity to put out Christmas decorations or do a little clean up, or even perhaps rake a few leftover leaves laying around your property.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15 hours ago, Clinton said:

Wow the 0z Euro was pure gold.  Love those maps you posted this morning.   Glad the storm on the 4th is showing up, hope I can get a little white gold on the 4th, not sure it will look quite like this but until then I can dream.  @OKwx2k4you need to watch this one.

1607212800-gPN2mvqEsAs.png

 

You are looking golden for this amigo. Hopefully it pans out for ya next week (Dec: 4th-5th). Wait till OKwx sees this.....❄️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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21 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like bowling ball energy. Again wasted with lack of cold

Wait to soon to  worry about this storm....plenty of time to track it and monitor it. Let the model mayhem start.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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33 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wait to soon to  worry about this storm....plenty of time to track it and monitor it. Let the model mayhem start.

Perhaps. NWS bullish on cold air coming in behind it and enhancing any synoptic snows, so there's that.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z Euro and CMC both showing accumulating snow in mby later next week.  The GFS is still a nothing burger but some of the ensembles are catching on.  I marked this one as a 1-3 inch event for the KC area due to lack of moisture from the system currently heading towards the Ohio Valley.  Maybe this one can exceed expectations.

sn10_acc.us_c.png

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

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@OKwx2k4, @Clinton, @clintbeed1993 and KC members I'm sure are paying close attn to the system around the 4th/5th that's showing signs of potential to bring the seasons biggest snowfall of this early season.  00z EPS continues to show good signs for those in the S MW.  It's rather unusual to see so much snow being flashed on the ensembles way down in the deep south of OK/AR.

1.png

 

 

00z Euro Control..."outta control"...

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Alright, Alright, Alright...I'm tickled to share with you the data that shows we are heading in the right direction for real Winter to begin showing up across our Sub.  Once we get past the 2nd winter storm of this month, we will begin to focus our eyes on a shift in the Flow aloft that will begin to usher in the seasons coldest air mass of the season.  I've been dialing in on this pattern and I'm beginning to see a very close 30-day harmonic pattern or what may in fact be a 60-day LRC cycle.  There are a lot of systems this season that look very similar to one another which was has been confusing to me of late, however, now as I see where this pattern is heading I think this could be a longer repeating LRC than usual.  I'm really curious to hear what Gary Lezak has to say.  If anyone of you near KC can chime in that would greatly appreciated.  I know @Clintonsaid he's throwing out the idea of a 45 day cycle but not sure if he's still believing that.

Anyhow, I'm going to comment more on my ideas of the LRC later today when I get to my other comp that has all the maps I have saved.  In the meantime, one of the big signals I have been looking for was the modeling to show signs of shifting the Flow aloft from a stout +PNA towards a neutral one and we are now seeing that from the EPS and Canadian in the extended.  

 

2.png

 

Why do I believe those two models and not the GEFS???  Look at both the 30mb/50mb animations below and focus in on the region of W NAMER where the warm pool grows around Nov 9th for about a week, then turns colder, but still has a warm pool just offshore the coast of the U.S.  This, to me, signals a northern stream pattern and systems digging into the SW creating a SW Flow aloft by the time we enter the 2nd weekend of December or the Week of the 13th.  Notice also the warm pool that grows near the GOM and along the EC.  This is a sign of a SER trying to grow, but I don't foresee it to be as strong as it was in October.

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

The pop in the PNA pattern correlates well with the burst of the warm pool  that starts around Nov 8th/9th in W NAMER.  There is about a 3-week lag period to this LR forecasting tool I've been using.

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlooks

 

The GEFS model is forecasting an ideal signal at 10mb for Week 2 which portray's a noteworthy storm track right through our Sub.  This should translate to a neutral PNA or even slightly negative pattern out towards Week 2.  The signal for a SSW event in Siberia is NOT going away which are all good signs for later.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

@OKwx2k4, @Clinton, @clintbeed1993 and KC members I'm sure are paying close attn to the system around the 4th/5th that's showing signs of potential to bring the seasons biggest snowfall of this early season.  00z EPS continues to show good signs for those in the S MW.  It's rather unusual to see so much snow being flashed on the ensembles way down in the deep south of OK/AR.

1.png

 

 

00z Euro Control..."outta control"...

3.png

 

 

Alright, Alright, Alright...I'm tickled to share with you the data that shows we are heading in the right direction for real Winter to begin showing up across our Sub.  Once we get past the 2nd winter storm of this month, we will begin to focus our eyes on a shift in the Flow aloft that will begin to usher in the seasons coldest air mass of the season.  I've been dialing in on this pattern and I'm beginning to see a very close 30-day harmonic pattern or what may in fact be a 60-day LRC cycle.  There are a lot of systems this season that look very similar to one another which was has been confusing to me of late, however, now as I see where this pattern is heading I think this could be a longer repeating LRC than usual.  I'm really curious to hear what Gary Lezak has to say.  If anyone of you near KC can chime in that would greatly appreciated.  I know @Clintonsaid he's throwing out the idea of a 45 day cycle but not sure if he's still believing that.

Anyhow, I'm going to comment more on my ideas of the LRC later today when I get to my other comp that has all the maps I have saved.  In the meantime, one of the big signals I have been looking for was the modeling to show signs of shifting the Flow aloft from a stout +PNA towards a neutral one and we are now seeing that from the EPS and Canadian in the extended.  

 

2.png

 

Why do I believe those two models and not the GEFS???  Look at both the 30mb/50mb animations below and focus in on the region of W NAMER where the warm pool grows around Nov 9th for about a week, then turns colder, but still has a warm pool just offshore the coast of the U.S.  This, to me, signals a northern stream pattern and systems digging into the SW creating a SW Flow aloft by the time we enter the 2nd weekend of December or the Week of the 13th.  Notice also the warm pool that grows near the GOM and along the EC.  This is a sign of a SER trying to grow, but I don't foresee it to be as strong as it was in October.

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

The pop in the PNA pattern correlates well with the burst of the warm pool  that starts around Nov 8th/9th in W NAMER.  There is about a 3-week lag period to this LR forecasting tool I've been using.

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlooks

 

The GEFS model is forecasting an ideal signal at 10mb for Week 2 which portray's a noteworthy storm track right through our Sub.  This should translate to a neutral PNA or even slightly negative pattern out towards Week 2.  The signal for a SSW event in Siberia is NOT going away which are all good signs for later.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

Very exciting times ahead.  I am beginning to lean towards a longer cycle aswell.  A 51 day cycle is starting to look like a possibility imo.

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@Tom Gary has hinted several times now including just a few min ago of a 40 day cycle.  Which does seem to line-up, this cycle just has a + AO influence.  If that is the case then the storm showing up for latter next week could certainly be a big dog as it would be the big storm from late Oct part of the pattern.  Curious to hear your thoughts.

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13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Tom Gary has hinted several times now including just a few min ago of a 40 day cycle.  Which does seem to line-up, this cycle just has a + AO influence.  If that is the case then the storm showing up for latter next week could certainly be a big dog as it would be the big storm from late Oct part of the pattern.  Curious to hear your thoughts.

I’m at th gym now but I’ll look into it later today.

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NWS Hastings, the bad news continues. 
 

Pending the outcome of the meandering upper low, temperatures
should start to rebound next Friday and continue the trend into
the next week. The 8-13 day period still looks mostly dry and
likely warmer than normal. Anomalously warm temperatures will
persist across most of Canada as upper high pressure ridges up
into the prairie provinces. That essentially keeps any prolonged
cold air out of area until possibly mid December. On top of that,
if the midweek low pressure doesn`t bring precipitation to speak
of, most of the region will likely be dry until mid December too.
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Now, I dont wanna jump the gun here, but, my forecast shows another snowevent for the following weekend (Dec 4-5th timeframe) and it has colder temps to go w it as well. This is the storm that will bring Clinton and potentially OKwx some appreciable snows and eventually towards the GL's area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Depends on the state. When I lived in Texas, we had those basically every week.

Did not know that. Very interesting that weather stations show that type of message (its good, no dought about it).

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12 EPS...looking good for the S MW/Plains for a nice early hit...kinda fizzles out as the cut-off low heads east but there is time for adjustments.

 

1.png

 

 

Then....the following weekend is when we begin to see REAL Winter set up shop and the EPS is signaling what I've been planning on, that being, a storm system coming out of the Rockies and into the Plains/MW along an Arctic Front.  This should be a fun period around the 11th-13th and could last for a couple or more weeks.

 

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30 minutes ago, Tom said:

12 EPS...looking good for the S MW/Plains for a nice early hit...kinda fizzles out as the cut-off low heads east but there is time for adjustments.

 

1.png

 

 

Then....the following weekend is when we begin to see REAL Winter set up shop and the EPS is signaling what I've been planning on, that being, a storm system coming out of the Rockies and into the Plains/MW along an Arctic Front.  This should be a fun period around the 11th-13th and could last for a couple or more weeks.

 

48 day cycle?

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Has anyone seen the latest GFS for next weekend.....Looks crazy! 960mb.....

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15 hours ago, Clinton said:

48 day cycle?

I'll post some similarities I'm seeing in the models from our current system tracking through the S Plains, the next one diving directly S out of Canada late next week and then the pattern between the 9th-13th.  I'm not 100% on this cycle just yet but I'm seriously leaning towards a 60-day cycle.  Almost identical to last year's cycle length.  I looked at the 40-day cycle you mentioned Gary is thinking and I cannot find a reason why that would be the case.  I looked at several storm systems that we just experienced and they did not line up.  Remember back in early October when I posted maps of troughs that tracked into Cali???   And when there was a period in early October where there was a cut-off trough near the Baja that swirled around and spun??  That part of the pattern is coming and the models are showing it in the extended.  

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Let's take a look back at what the Euro seasonal was forecasting for December...IMO, it's going to nail the blocking pattern in the N ATL/Greenland and in the SW, but the pattern near Alaska/NW NAMER will prob bust.  Tomorrow night the new seasonal model run comes out and I'm really curious to see the new data.

 

1.png

2.png

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