Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 As of now, December looks to be near to above normal (tempwise), at least in mby. We will see how this goes, but overall, I do not see an true arctic airmass in sight. Just near normal, to above, or slight below. Luckily, my average temps are below freezing as we go forward, deeper into this month, so precip should be all snow, relatively speaking. 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 The next central US system is crapping out on the models now. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Looks like a boring 2 weeks. Hopefully mid month we get some action. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 +AO and MJO phases not in our favor (3-4-5) are killing us now and for next 2 weeks. Pacific Air (though modified) and strong H pressure over Rockies = a plethora of nothingness for many of us. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: +AO and MJO phases not in our favor (3-4-5) are killing us now and for next 2 weeks. Pacific Air (though modified) and strong H pressure over Rockies = a plethora of nothingness for many of us. Where do you see a +AO??? I think the exact opposite is going to happen by the 13th as there are several indicators suggesting so. Curious to hear your thoughts on this. Are you focusing more on the MJO??? EURO MJO forecast...we did go through Phase 3/4 but now in the null phase... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Now with +A0. And reaping the effects of it from the past several weeks. MJO also. It takes sometime for teleconnecrions to show their colors, strong MJO might be an outlier in that. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: Now with +A0. And reaping the effects of it from the past several weeks. MJO also. It takes sometime for teleconnecrions to show their colors, strong MJO might be an outlier in that. Ahh, I gotcha...I see what your saying...well, let's see if nature takes her sweet time or flips hard...I think the later will happen... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 31 minutes ago, james1976 said: Looks like a boring 2 weeks. Hopefully mid month we get some action. Probably will seeing that im out of town (SW michigan) from the 17-23rd lol. Mark it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 12z GEFS are pointing towards a flip towards a SW Flow aloft by the 11th and also tugging down the arctic chill...fun times ahead...I'm expecting it to get wetter/snowier as we get closer. Remember how many times we saw those penetrating "blue northers" since late Sept??? Real Winter is coming for the central CONUS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 19 hours ago, Niko said: Has anyone seen the latest GFS for next weekend.....Looks crazy! 960mb..... 12z euro still hanging in there with some light accumulation for KC area heavier out in Kansas. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z euro still hanging in there with some light accumulation for KC area heavier out in Kansas. My buddy in hutch looking good for this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z euro still hanging in there with some light accumulation for KC area heavier out in Kansas. Hang in there bud....still plenty of changes to come for ya. Tomorrow it could show 2ft for yby 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 29 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS are pointing towards a flip towards a SW Flow aloft by the 11th and also tugging down the arctic chill...fun times ahead...I'm expecting it to get wetter/snowier as we get closer. Remember how many times we saw those penetrating "blue northers" since late Sept??? Real Winter is coming for the central CONUS. GEFS is starting to paint up. It also is getting more bullish for the Wed and Thur system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Clouds have rapidly increased over my area now, lowering and thickening. Kinda has a milky look to it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 4 hours ago, Clinton said: GEFS is starting to paint up. It also is getting more bullish for the Wed and Thur system. Will you have cold air to work with? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 16 days of nothing for mby on GFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 39 minutes ago, james1976 said: 16 days of nothing for mby on GFS Per Tom's 300 hr map, things turn a corner just beyond that time-frame fwiw. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Per Tom's 300 hr map, things turn a corner just beyond that time-frame fwiw. Yup a storm has been popping up around the 12-13th in the middle of the country. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Will you have cold air to work with? I believe so, but as is often the case here I will be sweating it. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 I feel like Decembers have just been terrible these last couple of winters or so for much of the CONUS. Is there a explanation from verified meteorologists or atmospheric scientists why? Climate change? First third looks very meh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 7:38 AM, Clinton said: 0z Euro and CMC both showing accumulating snow in mby later next week. The GFS is still a nothing burger but some of the ensembles are catching on. I marked this one as a 1-3 inch event for the KC area due to lack of moisture from the system currently heading towards the Ohio Valley. Maybe this one can exceed expectations. I'm trusting the models about as much as news and politics at this point but I hope to see something. If there's a chance I'd miss though, it may very well happen. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 In regards to the cycle that some were writing on.... It's complex but correct to say that there's both a 30 day and about a 46-50 day harmonic or vice versa depending on how you look at it. I think it was close to 45 at the onset but has gained a day or two since. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 7 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: In regards to the cycle that some were writing on.... It's complex but correct to say that there's both a 30 day and about a 46-50 day harmonic or vice versa depending on how you look at it. I think it was close to 45 at the onset but has gained a day or two since. I spent alot of time looking at this over the weekend and I think we have a 46 day cycle but will know a lot more in the next 10 days or so. Tom has been working on this aswell and I bet he has a good idea on this. Good luck this week with whatever weather we are going to get this week. As I thumb through the models this morning each one has a different solution. Really hoping to pull an inch or 2 out of this. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Here is a write up from my office on this weeks small system. (Fujiwana edition( lol. The focus then shifts to the mid to late week slow moving mid level trough, which until recent model runs appeared to move through wind minimal consequence. ECMWF model has been pretty persistent in forming plenty of precipitation, mainly along and south of HWY 36. This appeared to be the outlier and only minimal PoPs existed in the days 3-5 timeframe. However, now the GFS has latched onto a more aggressive precipitation solution for Wednesday night through Thursday. The exact evolution of this system is still very uncertain, but one common and persistent feature in the Dprog/DT for both ECMWF/GFS is that there will be plenty of cold air in the low levels to support ice crystal production and maintenance to the surface. This would mean at least some snowfall at the surface, again mainly along and south of HWY 36. The big question then becomes how aggressive the moisture transport to the north, feeding the system will be, and how that will also transport warmer temperatures. With the surface and H85 trough likely passing well to the south of the immediate forecast area it would bring into play the conceptual models of warm air having a hard time overcoming the cold air advection within the northeast low level flow north of the low level cyclone. We are still anticipating a rather low end winter weather forecast with this system, however with the Dprog/DT being generally more aggressive with precipitation and perhaps cooler air, it`s possible we could see this system escalate as it approaches. GFS forecast soundings from the 00z model run indicate a rather efficient snow production thermal and moisture profile, with solid saturation through the DGZ, and even with surface temperatures likely residing in the lower to middle 30s indicates snow production and maintenance. Also worth noting is that the GEFS ensemble doesn`t give much chance to heavy accumulating snow, as only 2-3 members of the 00z run indicate much more than a dusting. So this forecast package will generally represent an increase in PoPs, lending to the GFS being more aggressive, and maintenance of minimally accumulating snowfall, likely in the dusting to 2 inch range at this point. Again, things could change, and given the slow speed of this system and what looks to be a hint of a Fujiwara Effect, there is an outside chance this system increases in impacts. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Models continue to support an active period for the 2nd weekend when the North American 500mb pattern amplifies and produces blocks in all the right places to put smiles on faces. Should be an interesting week tracking another winter storm across parts of KS into the MW and then another one on the following weekend when I believe the Winter pattern will get started. The LR clues are growing stronger and bolder that a SSW event is brewing over Siberia/Eurasia during the next 10 days. Nearly a 30-40C reversal at 10mb should get the party started. This is about as an ideal set up as you'd like to see, where you have the PV funnel frigid air into North America...perfect warming location at 10mb...reminiscent to '13-'14...#CrossPolarFlow 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 50 minutes ago, Clinton said: I spent alot of time looking at this over the weekend and I think we have a 46 day cycle but will know a lot more in the next 10 days or so. Tom has been working on this aswell and I bet he has a good idea on this. Good luck this week with whatever weather we are going to get this week. As I thumb through the models this morning each one has a different solution. Really hoping to pull an inch or 2 out of this. I spent some time yesterday studying and analyzing the pattern and it's been one of the hardest ones yet! LOL, I'll be honest, I need a few more days to see how the models handle the next cut-off system and the storm system the following weekend. On top of that, I have a very busy day lined up today with work and personal stuff. Nonetheless, I like where we are heading as the pattern gears up. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Don't know how many Euro Control runs in a row have been like this but everyone I looked at over the long weekend showed the same hole (and pretty paltry elsewhere in the Upper Midwest) over the Central Plains. More than ready for a switch to white rather than brown. 1 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 I like the direction the NAM is headed. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Clinton said: I like the direction the NAM is headed. Looks like that hvy batch on your west side might be headed towards you.... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Niko said: Looks like that hvy batch on your west side might be headed towards you.... I need it to get colder. It kinda spins and fizzles. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 The GFS gives me 0.0 snow and .10 inches of precip through Dec 16th. The good news is this will be great for the water level of Lake Michigan/Huron as it is slowly coming down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: The GFS gives me 0.0 snow and .10 inches of precip through Dec 16th. The good news is this will be great for the water level of Lake Michigan/Huron as it is slowly coming down. The flip-side bad news is all the local ponds are drying up and really stressing any wildlife dependent on them. The GLs didn't rise overnight and a region-wide drought is not a welcomed solution in my eyes. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 The GFS finally has some precip in the extended, but it's rain for most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The GFS finally has some precip in the extended, but it's rain for most. Wheres the arctic air D****T. So far out it’ll probably be a nothing burger anyway 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Canadian tries to clip SE Iowa with some snow. Most of this falls Friday night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Today's Euro has a rex block in the west for several days followed by what would be a rainy system just beyond day ten. 1 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Waiting to see an improved pattern emerge 10 days out in the models before the bad pattern has even taken full effect is the worst part of following weather and weather models. These times make me wish I was blissfully unaware like most people. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Is this gonna be one of those February-April winters? Lol 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 KS may get a decent snow on Thursday, a small Watch area has been put out. Unfortunately the precip shield looks to struggle to make it to the Nebraska border. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: KS may get a decent snow on Thursday, a small Watch area has been put out. Unfortunately the precip shield looks to struggle to make it to the Nebraska border. Missed again. Nothing shocks me anymore. Just can't get any type of precipitation to form. As always, the only hope is 15 days away. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.