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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

ooh, I can't wait! 

Actually, that's what I'm stuck doing.

Can we just get some NW flow and clippers please? They don't dump much, but they're cold and good for a couple inches outside the LES belts. Would be nice just to see the lakes fired-up. Seems like it's been forever since we've had a good early LES outbreak. Really, is it that hard?

How's bout this 12Z suite?

EPS 1.png

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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17 minutes ago, Niko said:

Interesting.......🤔

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_12/image.thumb.png.934297ae4250c2e701454e818372e311.png

Yay. Another miss by suppression south. Lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hurricane season might be over, but December can be strange when it comes to Hurricanes. Atlantic Hurricanes in December have occurred. In fact, here is a list of a few below:

  • Epsilon - Cat1 in 2005
  • Lili - Cat1 in 1984
  • Nicole - Cat1 in 1998
  • Olga - Cat1 in 2001
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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32 minutes ago, james1976 said:

gfs_asnow24_us_45.png

Now we post fantasy range storm maps? That'd be sweet tho for ya

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z GFS = Bliz west of me followed by bliz east of me, with mood flakes ala-mode here. Shoot me now if that transpires

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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mercy!

 

20201202 0z GFS h360 Surf.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some rather interesting developments overnight in long range guidance, As noted-  00Z GFS shows a robust system middle of next weekend. However- Operation run of Euro is in stark contrast to GFS at days 8-10- as mild Pacific (source region)  H pressure dominates most of the eastern 2/3 of the Lower 48.- compared to GFS showing troughness developing in the Southern Rockies. But- Euro Control shows a similar system as the GFS shows, only 2-3 days later.  Cautiously optimistic here. General trends are showing some "potential" light mid Month for many weary winter weather lovers... Euro Control at 240 followed by OP Euro at 240image.png.cbd5f57cba4d68c4fc9a534bb52d6b81.pngimage.png.64c9598a59f0cecb0e1aab20aa485c25.pngYour on your own to compare with GFS- but here is Euro control just several days later than the 00Z GFS. and total snowfall of period. image.png.640eda6b8068656b649672919bc2ca13.pngimage.png.bb41c221bb8db03f2e46e0d97ab224ab.pngOffimage.png.8e48bd42500504103d652540c7ee0654.pngOf course much will change. But encouraging seeing 2 long range guidance packages showing a major pattern shift- just timing being different. One thing- using 6Z / 18Z guidance at this range without current upper air is not a good idea. (For those that don't know- 6Z/18Z DONT use Current upper air soundings- just old ones from 00Z /12Z )  Every wonder why even at short range  6Z / 18Z GFS/NAM runs show usually more QPF than 00Z / 12Z? See last event in Michigan for one example of many......  

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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One thing that may be a slight negative is that the air behind said potential systems is not really Arctic in origin. It's more Canadian modified cold, cold enough for potential snow (it's DEC after all) but not classic Arctic whiplash stuff from Nanook of the North. But- as the late great Eddie Rabbit said "Step by Step"...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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As Grizz mentioned, changes continue to brew...just like the tasty coffee I brewed...any "who"...let's dive into the data...

In terms of blocking, all the models continue rock steady showing a dominant -AO/-NAO pattern developing through the extended.  More notably, the EPS has trended towards a sweet looking west-based Greenland block where very early on I commented on this back in Oct when the LRC was developing.  In order to get a big winter, we would need to see this block set up and finally, yes, it appears to be setting up in December. 

1.gif

With that in mind, the storm that has been showing up in the model world between the 11th-13th will be influenced by this block along with the ever-amplifying N.A pattern.  As I have opined, Arctic air will funnel into N.A. for several reasons, but none more so, than the mighty Polar Vortex.  In recent days, the models have quickly sniffed out a Cross Polar Flow pattern and what is looking like the seasons 1st SSW event across Siberia/Eurasia that will undoubtedly influence the PV.  By Day 10, the location of the warming and 10mb heights over the N PAC near the Bearing Sea is ideally what you want to see for winter to show up into the Lower 48. 

 

Both the GEFS and Euro Op are in agreement...

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_21.png 1.png

 

 

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What the 0z GFS is modeling to happen on Dec 12th is very similar to what occured on Oct 26th 47 days ago.  The GFS is often to progressive so I would be surprised if it end up being 49 days when its all said and done.  This is why I have been so confident in a major storm the 2nd week of Dec.  Also think we should look for a big shot of cold air (maybe artic) 2 days prior to the storm.

gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png

5.png

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I know this is mostly November information but I will post it in both locations.

With all of the sunshine we had in November the question was asked what % of sunshine did we have in November. Well it seems that the NWS is not going to provide us with that information this year but it looks like at Grand Rapids there were 6 clear days 12 partly cloudy days and 12 cloudy days. At Muskegon it was 7 clear 11 partly cloudy and 12 cloudy and at Lansing it was reported as 16 clear 3 partly cloudy and 11 cloudy. So yes it was a very sunny November around here. At this time it is clear and 27 here at my house.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

I know this is mostly November information but I will post it in both locations.

With all of the sunshine we had in November the question was asked what % of sunshine did we have in November. Well it seems that the NWS is not going to provide us with that information this year but it looks like at Grand Rapids there were 6 clear days 12 partly cloudy days and 12 cloudy days. At Muskegon it was 7 clear 11 partly cloudy and 12 cloudy and at Lansing it was reported as 16 clear 3 partly cloudy and 11 cloudy. So yes it was a very sunny November around here. At this time it is clear and 27 here at my house.

per Bill Steffen on his blog we had 52% of sun.  28% is normal.  

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30 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

It's always 10 days away in a December.  Sounds like a good song title.  Got to love the GFS.  It's like there is always a mega 67' 78' blizzard at 14 days followed by epic cold.  

That's why we have long range tools to help know when the models are on to something and when there full of BS.  They haven't shown a lot of "fantasy" storms this year.  When they have shown one there has been one, strength and track is always the question.

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

mercy!

 

20201202 0z GFS h360 Surf.png

Bring this baby 50mi a little more west and we are in business. Otherwise heaviest of the snows stays east of us amigo. Nevertheless, I'll take anything.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 31F w deep blue sunny skies and a lovely snowcover, which makes it feel like December. Seasonable temps to remain in tact, until the weekend, when it gets colder. I like the fact that this month entered w snow otg and seasonably cold temps. Good sign! I will try to take a few pics today if I have time.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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30th anniversary of a great midwest blizzard.  One I remember fondly.  School was cancelled for 2 days.  I was only 10 so I don't know how much snow we got, but based on this map, it was in the neighborhood of a foot. Dubuque reported 15" and I lived about 40 miles NW of there.  

 

image.png.9122abdb58197ace08fe77eb2932198c.png

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

It's always 10 days away in a December.  Sounds like a good song title.  Got to love the GFS.  It's like there is always a mega 67' 78' blizzard at 14 days followed by epic cold.  

Ikr. It's like the wx gods are pissed at somebody in our region and refuse any snowstorm to come through here, lol. Not to mention what you said, the GFS is always over-amped to the max at longer range. Seems like the programmers/designers/developers have it set to make the most of any ingredients further out so they don't have something sneak-up on them or something. Would be better for us if it worked the other way around and down-played in the LR and ramped-up within 120 hrs. Just my rambling thoughts fwiw..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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59 minutes ago, Niko said:

Bring this baby 50mi a little more west and we are in business. Otherwise heaviest of the snows stays east of us amigo. Nevertheless, I'll take anything.

It's like 14 days out. Normally I'd feel comfortable saying "never want to be in the bullseye 10 days out". But, we either have mojo working for us or we don't. If not, this LR map will be accurate, or the storm just won't happen, or be weak sauce. As for being satisfied with anything. Not gonna lie. If I see peeps getting huge hits left and right and I can't scrape up a plow-worthy hit, I won't be a happy camper.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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44 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

30th anniversary of a great midwest blizzard.  One I remember fondly.  School was cancelled for 2 days.  I was only 10 so I don't know how much snow we got, but based on this map, it was in the neighborhood of a foot. Dubuque reported 15" and I lived about 40 miles NW of there.  

 

image.png.9122abdb58197ace08fe77eb2932198c.png

I had just moved to NWMI less than 2 months prior and this was our 2nd major storm. I worked out in the countryside and remember the winds whipping the snow sideways wondering if I'd make it home or not. Ended up with a lull in the storm for the evening commute, then woke up to about 10" fresh that fell overnight. Great memories, thx

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS is very interesting.  You can see the northern and southern stream energy come together on the west coast and then a small lead piece of energy break out ahead while a bigger piece lags behind.  Seems to be setting up for a larger storm still on this run.

 

floop-gfs-2020120212.500h_anom.conus (1).gif

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5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

12z GFS is very interesting.  You can see the northern and southern stream energy come together on the west coast and then a small lead piece of energy break out ahead while a bigger piece lags behind.  Seems to be setting up for a larger storm still on this run.

 

floop-gfs-2020120212.500h_anom.conus (1).gif

don't look at thermals, because that storm could produce a lot of rain.  

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7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

12z GFS is very interesting.  You can see the northern and southern stream energy come together on the west coast and then a small lead piece of energy break out ahead while a bigger piece lags behind.  Seems to be setting up for a larger storm still on this run.

 

floop-gfs-2020120212.500h_anom.conus (1).gif

She's digging!! Can we finally get this party started?

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2nd wave doesn't really materialize this run like the 00z run did.  It turns into a rain maker for areas south of Iowa and no surface low development.  At least through 264 hours that is what it shows.  But regardless, there is a system or two here to keep an eye on and definitely pointing towards being more active.  Lots will change, but things look more intriguing than just 24 hours ago.  

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