December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

I like how the 0z handles the mid month storm, time will tell if it ejects from the SW like this.  I did envision this storm producing alot of snow in mby, hope it can come a little further north.

 

[dubuque473]

30 years ago this week we had a 15” snowfall with 56mph gusts.

I think things will change mid month for the better.

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Until (if?)  the snow pack builds - it's going to be very difficult to get cold that holds. And if systems behave like they should based on the lack of snow cover where there should  be (never does, but just saying)  in S.CAN and Dakotas etc, that means rain at first for many. I knew the region had a lack of snow cover but the extant really surprised me.

Wow, that is concerning.  The amount of time between major storm systems is a problem and getting cold air in place when the smaller ones roll through will be our only chance of fixing this.

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids has only officially recorded 0.4" of snow fall so far this winter season. And Grand Rapids is now well past it's average date of its first 1" snow fall. The average date is November 19th.  At this time Grand Rapids is now over 7" below average of where we should be at this date. At this time it is mostly clear and 34 here at my house.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Wow, that is concerning.  The amount of time between major storm systems is a problem and getting cold air in place when the smaller ones roll through will be our only chance of fixing this.

Snow in Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma and nothing for Nebraska, Iowa, or the Dakotas.  I just shake my head at this pattern.  

[Grizzcoat]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Today's JMA weeklies are summed up in one phrase..."Yo-yo"...The Good???  Week 2 looks cold and wintry for most of the central/northern Sub.....The Bad???  Week 3-4 have flipped very Warm...MJO has gone into warmer phases...

 

Week 2...

Temp & Precip pattern suggesting a colder look that can support a wintry outlook knifing down into the S Plains up into the MW...

 

 

Week 3-4...The Ugly...

Temp and Precip pattern...Blow Torch...

 

The 2nd half of December is highly in question due to a couple of reasons and one being if there is a SSW event.  I've learned in the past that during a SSW event the models tend to be erratic.  That's not to say they are wrong with their forecast but I've seen them flip back and forth quite often in the LR.  The big change in the JMA Weeklies out past Week 2 is the pattern near AK/W NAMER that has a major trough (+EPO).  I'm curious to see tonights Euro Weeklies if they to trend this way, if so, then it'll be a brown and warm holiday stretch.  On the flip side, it could be a head fake and just another day in the office of analyzing data.  Is it believable???  Based on the LRC and the BSR, I'm not completely sold on this idea.  Not to mention, the location of the SSW event is in an ideal location and appears to be growing in consensus among the models.  Can't script it better than the 00z GEFS below...

 

 

 

The Euro weeklies that I posted earlier this week also show blowtorch around/after Christmas. Last year in DSM on the 25th it was 60F.

[Grizzcoat]

On 12/1/2020 at 10:49 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Just posting for entertainment purposes only. Put what stock you want in Euro weeklies- and yes I understand the Euro has had a very difficult seeing any BN air masses this fall.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

The Euro weeklies that I posted earlier this week also show blowtorch around/after Christmas. Last year in DSM on the 25th it was 60F.

Yup, I remember we were hosting Christmas at my place and I had the patio door wide open to let some fresh air inside because it was so darn warm inside.  Hopefully not a repeat this year.

[Northland09]

12 hours ago, Madtown said:

In Northern WI--------old timers used to say if the deer had a lot of fat it was going to be a lot of snow. Really long hair meant cold. The deer I helped cut up last week had both, longer hair and a lot of fat.

 

 

I'm riding that deers forecast 

Yes! I go by nature's forecast.  The deer have had a lot of fat on them this year.  And the buck that I got a couple weeks ago, his fur was really long. Probably one of the best hides I've had yet from a deer. I'm also banking on a tough winter due to the amount of mice I've had since late spring.  I've never trapped so many mice in a single year. And the chipmunks were hoarding way earlier than usual. Even an old time farmer brought that up to me without me even mentioning! Farmers know nature...Most also think that an abundance of acorns means it's going to be a bad winter. I don't believe that. The years where I noticed we've had bad winters is when acorns barely drop, like this year. The mild winters have tons of acorns, like last year. 

Personally, I think it's just the calm before the storm. I have a feeling it's going to hit us hard in January, just like it did in 2013-2014. We will have to wait and see!

Side note, I really enjoy reading everyone's input on here. I may not know all of the terminology and such...but I feel like I'm learning more and more every time I hop on!

[Tom]

21 minutes ago, Northland09 said:

Yes! I go by nature's forecast.  The deer have had a lot of fat on them this year.  And the buck that I got a couple weeks ago, his fur was really long. Probably one of the best hides I've had yet from a deer. I'm also banking on a tough winter due to the amount of mice I've had since late spring.  I've never trapped so many mice in a single year. And the chipmunks were hoarding way earlier than usual. Even an old time farmer brought that up to me without me even mentioning! Farmers know nature...Most also think that an abundance of acorns means it's going to be a bad winter. I don't believe that. The years where I noticed we've had bad winters is when acorns barely drop, like this year. The mild winters have tons of acorns, like last year. 

Personally, I think it's just the calm before the storm. I have a feeling it's going to hit us hard in January, just like it did in 2013-2014. We will have to wait and see!

Side note, I really enjoy reading everyone's input on here. I may not know all of the terminology and such...but I feel like I'm learning more and more every time I hop on!

Love hearing your input and glad to hear there is chatter among nature enthusiasts of hope that this winter won't be a dud.  It's always interesting listening to the ol' timers and farmers that rely on nature's signs like they did back in the day. 

Anyhow,  I just read Judah's tweet regarding the GEFS forecast in the Strat and what it may entail and that is lining up to what you just said above.

Quote

 

 

 

Judah Cohen

 

2/ The important consequences are this will likely result in a stronger #PolarVortex disruption this month & warmer weather in the Eastern US with #cold weather focused in Asia (maybe West US) near term with increasing risk for colder weather for the East US & Europe longer term.

 IMO, this is prob why today's JMA weeklies run was a blow torch.  The models could be all seeing a major disruption later this month.  Let's see what the Euro weeklies show later this afternoon.

[bud2380]

GFS is so close to being a solid snowstorm this run, but pulls a little too far north and just barely too warm.  

 

 

 

[bud2380]

A UKMET sighting in an AFD!  That's pretty rare.  Also an indicator of how boring things are right now that they are talking about potential flurries as the biggest weather impact of the period.

 

The Sunday night time frame `could` be the more favored time for
flurries as the strongest forcing and coldest air aloft moves
through the area. Interestingly, the UKMET suggests the potential
for very minor accumulations. IF this were to occur it would likely
be a very dry fluffy snow and any accumulations would be a dusting
at best.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Until (if?)  the snow pack builds - it's going to be very difficult to get cold that holds. And if systems behave like they should based on the lack of snow cover where there should  be (never does, but just saying)  in S.CAN and Dakotas etc, that means rain at first for many. I knew the region had a lack of snow cover but the extant really surprised me.

NAMER snowcover went from decadal high in October, now to decadal low at the end of November. It doesn't get much worse in my book. So much for "off to a fast start". More like "off to another useless premature start". Looking forward to my umpteenth brown Christmas here.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Love hearing your input and glad to hear there is chatter among nature enthusiasts of hope that this winter won't be a dud.  It's always interesting listening to the ol' timers and farmers that rely on nature's signs like they did back in the day. 

Anyhow,  I just read Judah's tweet regarding the GEFS forecast in the Strat and what it may entail and that is lining up to what you just said above.

 IMO, this is prob why today's JMA weeklies run was a blow torch.  The models could be all seeing a major disruption later this month.  Let's see what the Euro weeklies show later this afternoon.

He admitted his cold potential flies in the face of NOAA's call for Dec. Not that they can't bust, but they've gotten better in the past decade. Got tired of mega-busts they were known for back in the day.

[bud2380]

The Euro does a great job illustrating the 500mb vort rotating through Iowa on Sunday.  Unfortunately there is next to no moisture to work with so it just squeezes out some flurries or very light snow.  Maybe some mood flakes though.

 

[bud2380]

Euro has back to back storms now, much like what the GFS has been hinting at.  Long ways to go, but starting to look like this is the period to watch.  

 

[bud2380]

GFS Ensembles

 

[GDR]

384 hrs worth

[Stacsh]

I thought last December was bad.  yeesh. 

[Tony]

45 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro has back to back storms now, much like what the GFS has been hinting at.  Long ways to go, but starting to look like this is the period to watch.  

 

Shutout for Chi-Town and many others on here. Like last year we will have to wait till 2021 before we see any type of measurable snowfall. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Quite the December forecast for here:

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest around 6 mph after midnight.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 48. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 44. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 43.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 27.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 52.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 33.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 57.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 32.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

[bud2380]

Here is info from NOAA on the RAP and HRRR upgrades.  Both models will extend by 12 hours their maximum range.  So the RAP will now go out to 51 hours every 6 hours and the HRRR will go out 48 hours every 6 hours.  

 

https://www.weather.gov/news/200210-rapid-model

 

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=full&run_time=03+Dec+2020+-+16Z

 

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rap_jet&domain=full&run_time=03+Dec+2020+-+15Z

 

[snowstorm83]

27 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Quite the December forecast for here:

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest around 6 mph after midnight.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 48. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 44. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 43.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 27.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 52.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 33.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 57.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 32.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

CTRL+C Sunny CTRL+V 7x 

[CentralNebWeather]

My gosh. I’m now in the extreme drought category. 2nd driest ever August through November. 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Up to 14” of snow in southern Kansas yesterday.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

GFS Ensembles

 

Digging your extended model run play-by-play. Haven't seen anything like it since NEB_wx was giving 15 min balcony Obs during a light mix event.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm liking that storm on Euro. Good thing it's only 9 days out!

[bud2380]

18z GFS sucked.  Not worth talking about.

[james1976]

0z back with a much better 2nd storm.

[Tom]

Last night's Euro Weeklies turned out to be rather ugly...there's no sugar coating it, the reversal in the EPO towards a positive state floods the CONUS with warmth.  NW NAMER trough is the dagger towards any sustained cold.  The Holidays are not looking pretty.

 

[Slowpoke]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Last night's Euro Weeklies turned out to be rather ugly...there's no sugar coating it, the reversal in the EPO towards a positive state floods the CONUS with warmth.  NW NAMER trough is the dagger towards any sustained cold.  The Holidays are not looking pretty.

 

Thanks Tom for your long range update, actually I only get my longer range thoughts from reading your posts on here the past couple years. Last years longer range forecasts were pretty rough, the cold never showed up like the maps were telling you it seemed. Kind of scary seeing you going with a big warm up and no cold insight for later this month, but, maybe them same maps that showed all that cold that was supposed to be coming last winter that never really showed up and now are showing all this warm air that’s supposedly coming and it to won’t show up. We can only hope they “could” be wrong again and the lower 48 will be flooded with cold and snow in a couple weeks. Please keep up your long range forecasts, again I in joy reading them even if you’re not always 100% with them because let’s be honest, no weather forecaster is always correct! 

[Madtown]

just ugly...looking at 15" departure from average for December

[Clinton]

Nice AFD from my office.  Mentions more active weather later next week.  These dry spells are going to be brutal at times, waiting is the hardest part.

Model guidance shows this pattern sticking around for several days.
A small shortwave trough passes through the area on Sunday, but the
lack of moisture curtails any attempts at precipitation. A narrow
omega blocking pattern establishes itself over the Eastern Rockies
Sunday evening. This halts or deflects any storms systems attempting
to move in from the west. As a result, a cutoff low attempts to
cross the Western Rockies, but is unable to overcome the blocking
ridge. This cutoff low slides south along the Sierra Nevada
Mountains and stagnates over Baja California. As the week goes on
a wholesale pattern shift weakens the omega block. The jet stream
begins to sag south by late next week and sweeps up the cutoff
low over Baja California. This accelerates the low across the
CONUS and could bring us some more active weather late next week.

&&

[james1976]

Mainly rainers on this morning's GFS

[GDR]

There’s a chance that this December could make last December look rather cool. Oh well let’s get 2020 out of here!

[bud2380]

00z Euro shows a few inches in Eastern Iowa.

 

[bud2380]

The 06z GFS shows a majorly wound up storm that hits some of our NE posters hard.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The 06z GFS shows a majorly wound up storm that hits some of our NE posters hard.  

 

I've seen these maps before.  Usually they are way overblown, or completely are duds.  If I ever got all the forecasted snow that the GFS put out in long range fantasy maps, Central Nebraska would be the snow capital of America. 

[Beltrami Island]

15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I've seen these maps before.  Usually they are way overblown, or completely are duds.  If I ever got all the forecasted snow that the GFS put out in long range fantasy maps, Central Nebraska would be the snow capital of America. 

I can't stand these snowfall output maps.  They are so woefully inaccurate even in the short term.  I feel like that line from Jurassic Park applies “...Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

[bud2380]

22 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

I can't stand these snowfall output maps.  They are so woefully inaccurate even in the short term.  I feel like that line from Jurassic Park applies “...Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

For those of us on here that understand that these maps illustrate nothing more than a potential storm at the time frames listed, I think they are useful and valuable.  They become a problem when people who don't know any better spread them over social media and people act like it's a forecast.