December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

The 18z EC only goes out 144hrs but is almost identical to the 0z ICON for the first storm/wave.

 

[hlcater]

The predominance of pacific air really hampering these systems. Little doubt they'd be decent if there was seasonably cold air around, but right now it's just mild and "less mild". This complete dominance of pacific air with the cold trapped in Alaska is very reminiscent of winters such as 2011-12.

[jaster220]

Had to chuckle when I read this from IWX

Quote

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020

Another day, another meager chance for scrubby lake effect showers.
Last night`s LES forecast did not work out too great...though Benton
Harbor did report snow briefly (which was outside my POPs) and
there were a number of CoCoRaHS reports of a trace in La Porte
county. The 925 mb wind forecast is incredibly noisy tonight,
with only a brief period of NNW flow. Saturation on forecast
soundings remains paltry and incredibly shallow. Radar returns
over far NW Indiana look somewhat promising as of noon EST, but
ground truth from webcameras and observations are lacking. Lastly,
the next upper-level wave moving through tonight will pass even
farther to the southwest. So, for tonight, I will look away from
the high resolution guidance that spits out measurable QPF and
offer only flurries tonight downwind of the lake.

As others have noted, even the NWS pro's have had it with this lame sh*t. Just simply amazing how totally dead the atmosphere can get when the opposite extreme from some massively dynamic "storm of the century" occurs.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The predominance of pacific air really hampering these systems. Little doubt they'd be decent if there was seasonably cold air around, but right now it's just mild and "less mild". This complete dominance of pacific air with the cold trapped in Alaska is very reminiscent of winters such as 2011-12.

Yep, and the lack of dynamic anything pretty much sums it up. Can the cold air trapped up there break loose once or twice this winter like it managed to in 98-99 season? If not, hello 11-12. How I managed nearly 44" here that winter still amazes me. At this rate, I can't see that happening. Right now, I'm on a pace to a 39" season.

[Clinton]

Some decently cold air showing up early next week.

[jaster220]

0z ICON gets the SLP surprisingly deep but this abnormal track right over my head blows chunks with the marginal cold. GR and north look ok. Track also sucks for follow-on LES chances.

 

[jaster220]

Just now, Clinton said:

Some decently cold air showing up early next week.

Nice to see buddy, thx. Would be even nicer if this could trend about 12 hrs earlier arrival to meet up with the system. It's still a long ways out, so I suppose we could be baby-stepping our way there. Confidence is at an all-time low attm, lol

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice to see buddy, thx. Would be even nicer if this could trend about 12 hrs earlier arrival to meet up with the system. It's still a long ways out, so I suppose we could be baby-stepping our way there. Confidence is at an all-time low attm, lol

I agree, can't believe how warm and disorganized the flow is.  Just awful timing, not many parts of the pattern are going to produce down here and I sure thought this part would.  It might but I'm a little nervous.

[Madtown]

In shock somewhat that this is headed so far south. Very little snow on the ground and temps in the low 30's and a storm spins through Illinois and Indiana. Just crazy. Looks like highs in the low 20's here most of next week.

[bud2380]

The GFS is a total disaster. 

[jaster220]

Not sure what the ICON's smoking, but this would light-up Lk. Michigan next Monday if it were accurate.

 

[Grizzcoat]

at this rate it's DEC 2002 all over again. +5.4 F compared to normal and a WHOPPING  .1" snow at DSM.....  if you can't beat'em - join em' is my motto. I remember that DEC driving around town going to a junkyard in helping my bro in law out- the grass was still mostly green in many spots. I noticed a similar - though not to that extent - today coming back from MN that some farmers fields are still actually somewhat green. Winter wheat or whatever, it was very odd.

[OmahaSnowFan]

So about that storm thread.....

[snowstorm83]

Winter in recent years: October, Late January-April (if winter comes) 

[jaster220]

Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

So about that storm thread.....

I'm dubbing this the year without a thread. By the time anyone has confidence, it will be Obs time

[Grizzcoat]

Your forgetting NOV- not that it matters much...

[bud2380]

Canadian still shows a storm. 

[Grizzcoat]

For climo sites- new monthly 30 year avg's are about to be calculated after DEC 2020'. Losing the 80's and gaining the 11-20'. One thing is certain- DEC temps and snowfall is about to go up and down respectfully.

[james1976]

0z GFS unbelievable joke. There's just nothing to get excited about other than potential record highs. These paltry systems have no chance. Good luck south of the TC at getting any snow before Christmas. 

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Canadian still shows a storm. 

Yes it does, I think tonights GFS can be thrown in the trash.

[Grizzcoat]

7 minutes ago, james1976 said:

0z GFS unbelievable joke. There's just nothing to get excited about other than potential record highs. These paltry systems have no chance. Good luck south of the TC at getting any snow before Christmas. 

Kind of what I've been saying for 3 weeks or so. Sure - I gotten a little ramped or so with a run or two of guidance, but nothing seems to stick. Persistence in the pattern has been below normal precip and near to above normal (esp as means have fallen) temps.  At this rate- even the Twin Cities may struggle for white Christmas.

[james1976]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Kind of what I've been saying for 3 weeks or so. Sure - I gotten a little ramped or so with a run or two of guidance, but nothing seems to stick. Persistence in the pattern has been below normal precip and near to above normal (esp as means have fallen) temps.  At this rate- even the Twin Cities may struggle for white Christmas.

Yeah this pattern is stuck. A flash here or there doesn't change it.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes it does, I think tonights GFS can be thrown in the trash.

Why? It's joined the ICON in sitting the SLP on my head. Seems 'bout right tbh

[jaster220]

GFS was an improvement here. Not that far from the ICON, which would have me spitting distance from the good stuff:

 

[Niko]

Its beautiful outside....was out in my back patio smoking a cigar and thoroughly enjoyed it. Temp is at 24F under clear skies. The air is so crisp and clean.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Went to Detroit burbs today and was totally surprised to see an area of decent snow drifts just one county east. Guess that's how close the misses have gotten now, lol.

Not sure what to make of this next system. On one hand it's cool to see my office talking about it as if it were a legit risk, but we've been here not that long ago with the storm that slid east just enough in the end that "talk" was all we got from it.

I will say, something is pressing/filtering colder air into the region. There were NO below freezing days in my grid-cast, let alone highs in the 20's.

I still have some very patchy snows around.

[Niko]

By Friday, temps here will be approaching 50F w sunshine. That will feel great.  Actually, the warmup starts on Wednesday w temps climbing into the 40s.

Weekend storm that I am hearing about is wayyyyyyy to early to even know what will happen. Its a guessing game at this point. Not going to even worry about that until Thursday or Friday at the latest.

[bud2380]

Ukie is interesting. Drops several inches in southeast Iowa. 

[bud2380]

[Niko]

UPDATE from NOAA...

Ideal radiative cooling conditions have developed for those areas
that have cleared out. Temperatures have already fallen into the
lower 20s in some locations. Made some minor grid edits to lower Min
Ts across the board and to lower sky cover.

My temp already down to 22F. Heading into the teens tanite.

[Niko]

This will feel fantastic......but we all know it will not last, so enjoy it while you have it

[Money]

Euro is quite the storm for IA, N IL and S. WI

 

12-18 in the main band 

[Hawkeye]

Euro is very similar to the UK, but stronger.

[whatitdo]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro is very similar to the UK, but stronger.

The snow gradient by my parts is making me wanna tear my hear out

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Money said:

Euro is quite the storm for IA, N IL and S. WI

 

12-18 in the main band 

Seems robust for such a mediocre SLP

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

The snow gradient by my parts is making me wanna tear my hear(t) out

Yeah. Forgot to mention these "near misses" common during warmer winters. In cold (i.e. normal) winter months, you'd at least get a consolation prize via LES but these shoulder season events, especially during warm winters can have this brutal cut-off. I remember many such during the mild winters of the 80's.

Edit: What we need is for the cold to press just a bit more and shove this thing half a state south. The track currently shown isn't common, but warm regimes give us atypical results at times. Tom hinted that the models may not yet be done adjusting based on increasing high-lat blocking. Let's see where this ends up

[jaster220]

@Tom

Rumor is the GEFS is showing the SSWE happening sooner. Any truth to that?

[jaster220]

(face palm) @ 0z Euro

 

[Tom]

This pattern does resemble '11-12' to an extent, however, the overall warmth of the waters in the NE PAC do give me credence that this season will be different.  Not only this, but we have arctic blocking this season which was non existent that winter if I remember correctly.  Back in '11-'12,, there was a dominant NE PAC pattern which produced a repeating Aleutian Low tucked right into the NE PAC that flooded the CONUS with PAC air with absolutely no blocking present.  In fact, I don't think the EPO ever went negative that year unlike this season.  Finally, the Polar Vortex...the almighty caveat to a good or great season.  I believe Judah Cohen mentioned that during the '11-'12 season it remained strong and never weakened.  On the other hand, this year, it appears that we will see a weakening forthcoming later this month and a possible Major Mid-Season Warming event in early January.  What happens with the Polar Vortex is a crap shoot, but I got this feeling it will play a (+) role come Jan/Feb....into early Spring???  Seems to be the common theme over the past several years.

 

[Tom]

Both the GEFS/EPS are showing stronger blocking "over the top" of the developing/strengthening SLP that will track from the TX Panhandle and hook up towards the Lower Lakes region.  They BIG signal is the strengthening Hudson Bay block, seeding cold air into the pattern which is becoming clearer as we get closer.  With that being said, the 00z EPS has grown the snow shield in expansive fashion covering a lot of real estate.

But first, last nights 00z Euro flashed another "weenie run"...

 

00z EPS...snow mean looking pretty good at this stage...if trends persist, it may be our next storm thread....