bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Canadian much further south than the GFS. Blasts the whole state of Iowa. Yes. Please. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 This will not be a Dakotas special imho. AO is absolutely tanking 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Canadian 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 40 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Canadian OmaDome!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: OmaDome!!! Trade you that for this any day, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Euro crushes KS, E NE/C IA 2 ft+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looks like a max spot of 35.6 in SE NE and that’s with 10:1 ratio output 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 I'm not liking how a couple models are now showing rain up into Iowa. The Euro starts with snow in southern Missouri, but it cuts so hard the warmth rockets up through Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Seems like GFS/EURO slide the high pressure in farther east and quicker which allows the storm to go almost straight north rather northeast. If you’re in IL/WI/E IA you want the high to come in slower 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Trade you that for this any day, lol My “dome” does allow 8” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Euro lays down 50" in Kansas, so I'll confidently bet against that. Think this is probably the craziest euro run I've ever seen actually. 1 2 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: My “dome” does allow 8” Of rain?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 I have no idea what the hell is going on with the Euro lately. Used to be THE KING. This storm has a lot of moisture to work with on all models though, so that's encouraging. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Bunch of RAINERS here in the extended. yay. Was told the eastern sub would benefit early. Guess the eastern sub = New York and PA. Now the action shifts west. As said, screwed by the Nino-like Modoki Nina. Even the maps just a day ago showing decent (if not huge) LES across SMI have disappeared due to the dead zone between powerful N and S stream storms. 2" inch call looks in serious jeopardy. Prolly already on life support tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The Euro says we will jump to 55º late morning Wednesday. DVN says only 45º for now. It is still in the mid 50s in sw Iowa at 1am. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 This is probably one of the wildest runs I've ever seen off the Euro showing a max of 54" near LNK...these are runs you typically see from Nor' Easters...enjoy this weenie run! Like @CentralNebWeather said yesterday, how many more times will we see shifts in track and intensity??? The amount of blocking showing up in the models during this period will make tracking this Big Dog quite interesting and fun. Giddy up! Anyone else excited about storm tracking??? This pattern is about as exciting as I've seen it in a very long long time for nearly all of our Sub. Just about every model is dialing in on a major New Year's Holiday storm. I just love it when nature can dial up a wx system to track during a holiday period. Just hope one can be on the benefiting side of a snowstorm! Speaking of storms, the next system on deck is for later this weekend for parts of the MW/GL's...it doesn't look like a very large system, more or less, a teaser before the knock out punch to 2020...grand finale??? 00z EPS members for the 27th/28th system... 00z EPS...big time signal this far out for a potential massive storm... 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Going to wait a few more days until I start banging the pots and pans together. 1 2 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Wow 0z Euro control with almost historic amounts for mby. This is at 10:1 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Tom said: This is probably one of the wildest runs I've ever seen off the Euro showing a max of 54" near LNK...these are runs you typically see from Nor' Easters...enjoy this weenie run! Like @CentralNebWeather said yesterday, how many more times will we see shifts in track and intensity??? The amount of blocking showing up in the models during this period will make tracking this Big Dog quite interesting and fun. Giddy up! Anyone else excited about storm tracking??? This pattern is about as exciting as I've seen it in a very long long time for nearly all of our Sub. Just about every model is dialing in on a major New Year's Holiday storm. I just love it when nature can dial up a wx system to track during a holiday period. Just hope one can be on the benefiting side of a snowstorm! Speaking of storms, the next system on deck is for later this weekend for parts of the MW/GL's...it doesn't look like a very large system, more or less, a teaser before the knock out punch to 2020...grand finale??? 00z EPS members for the 27th/28th system... 00z EPS...big time signal this far out for a potential massive storm... I don't believe I've seen such high amounts predicted run after run in my area since the blizzard of 2011. That storm was the first of Feb and featured both a deep -AO but also a deep -NAO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 GFS came further south but still showing 24+ in the max spots.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Hawkeye said: I'm not liking how a couple models are now showing rain up into Iowa. The Euro starts with snow in southern Missouri, but it cuts so hard the warmth rockets up through Iowa. Also. Hopefully the snowpack to the N from this current storm helps suppress, but I'am concerned about liquid. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 6z GFS dumps 20” of snow on Iowa city before changing to rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 While areas to the west and north west will get a lot of snow the next few days, At this time I am not real impressed with the set up for this lake effect event. We shall see if can happen for a white Christmas in our area. The current temperature here at my house is now 40 with mostly cloudy skies. The current mean for December at Grand Rapids is 33.3 and that is +3.0 above average. The total snow fall for December is just a trace and for the season it is just 0.4" and that is now more than 22" below average at this point 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 06z GEFS ensemble mean is impressive. 2 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: 06z GEFS ensemble mean is impressive. I-80 special in the works! Share the wealth for all. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 is there a reason his maps never show anything for west michigan or is that just how this map is? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, whatitdo said: is there a reason his maps never show anything for west michigan or is that just how this map is? It's prob just a glitch on how the models produces the data output. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, whatitdo said: is there a reason his maps never show anything for west michigan or is that just how this map is? My assumption is bad model resolution. But couldn't say for sure. I wouldn't be concerned about it. The GEFS map I posted above shows heavy snow for W MI. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 It's up to 50º here. The mild air overnight finished off the snow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I know I'm the eternal pessimist when it comes to snow, but I'm sensing that this is going to turn out to be a rainer for KC. Another one of those storms that has rain south of the Iowa boarder and snow north of it. I really hope I'm wrong because it looks like someone's getting a major hit off of this one. Maybe the tanking AO by that time will help. I'd love to be wrong. That may be the case. I do think the -AO will have an influence on it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z ICON is a beaut 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Cc 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z ICON That's from multiple storms tho, correct? Going to be confusing/misleading until storms 1 & 2 do whatever they do. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, jaster220 said: That's from multiple storms tho, correct? Going to be confusing/misleading until storm 1 does whatever it does. Yes sorry here is the end of year storm, here is a break down. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, GDR said: Cc Finally. A batch of ENS's that show more than flurries around these parts. We here in the Mitt really need some -AO magic like never before. The GEFS mean looks a lot like GHD-2 and Dec 2000 bliz. Prolly over-done like all systems at this range, but it's heading in the right direction. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 It feels awesome outside w temps in the 40s. Some sunshine coming out as well. A given for this time of the year. Looks like I will be getting rain tanite w a changeover to snow w some accumulations likely, especially late Thurs into Fri. Colder weather follows. Not sure why these clowns are calling it "Arctic Air." Its not! Highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens is a little BN for this time of the year, thats all. No big deal. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, westMJim said: While areas to the west and north west will get a lot of snow the next few days, At this time I am not real impressed with the set up for this lake effect event. We shall see if can happen for a white Christmas in our area. The current temperature here at my house is now 40 with mostly cloudy skies. The current mean for December at Grand Rapids is 33.3 and that is +3.0 above average. The total snow fall for December is just a trace and for the season it is just 0.4" and that is now more than 22" below average at this point At least you have a WWA for up to 3" meaning the chances of a white Christmas are good. Not gonna make up the entire deficit to date with this LES event, but the timing is nice. With the veering winds, my best hope is actually towards the end of the "window" per models and the GRR. If any significant streamers can make it this far inland, it will most likely be after dark and possibly not until Christmas morning at the earliest, maybe again later Christmas Day or overnight into Saturday if we can keep the flow long enough. Good luck up there. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12Z GFS is a monster.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Grizzcoat said: 12Z GFS is a monster.... Going to be a big warm surge again, though. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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