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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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21 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

OmaDome!!!

Trade you that for this any day, lol

 

20201223 0z GEM h216 Surf.png

  • lol 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm not liking how a couple models are now showing rain up into Iowa.  The Euro starts with snow in southern Missouri, but it cuts so hard the warmth rockets up through Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

My “dome” does allow 8”🤣🤣 

Of rain??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Bunch of RAINERS here in the extended. yay. Was told the eastern sub would benefit early. Guess the eastern sub = New York and PA. Now the action shifts west. As said, screwed by the Nino-like Modoki Nina. Even the maps just a day ago showing decent (if not huge) LES across SMI have disappeared due to the dead zone between powerful N and S stream storms. 2" inch call looks in serious jeopardy. Prolly already on life support tbh.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro says we will jump to 55º late morning Wednesday.  DVN says only 45º for now.  It is still in the mid 50s in sw Iowa at 1am.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is probably one of the wildest runs I've ever seen off the Euro showing a max of 54" near LNK...these are runs you typically see from Nor' Easters...enjoy this weenie run!  Like @CentralNebWeather said yesterday, how many more times will we see shifts in track and intensity???  The amount of blocking showing up in the models during this period will make tracking this Big Dog quite interesting and fun.  Giddy up!

 

1.png

 

Anyone else excited about storm tracking???  This pattern is about as exciting as I've seen it in a very long long time for nearly all of our Sub.  Just about every model is dialing in on a major New Year's Holiday storm.  I just love it when nature can dial up a wx system to track during a holiday period.  Just hope one can be on the benefiting side of a snowstorm!

Speaking of storms, the next system on deck is for later this weekend for parts of the MW/GL's...it doesn't look like a very large system, more or less, a teaser before the knock out punch to 2020...grand finale???  

00z EPS members for the 27th/28th system...

5.png

 

00z EPS...big time signal this far out for a potential massive storm...

3.png

2.png

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This is probably one of the wildest runs I've ever seen off the Euro showing a max of 54" near LNK...these are runs you typically see from Nor' Easters...enjoy this weenie run!  Like @CentralNebWeather said yesterday, how many more times will we see shifts in track and intensity???  The amount of blocking showing up in the models during this period will make tracking this Big Dog quite interesting and fun.  Giddy up!

 

1.png

 

Anyone else excited about storm tracking???  This pattern is about as exciting as I've seen it in a very long long time for nearly all of our Sub.  Just about every model is dialing in on a major New Year's Holiday storm.  I just love it when nature can dial up a wx system to track during a holiday period.  Just hope one can be on the benefiting side of a snowstorm!

Speaking of storms, the next system on deck is for later this weekend for parts of the MW/GL's...it doesn't look like a very large system, more or less, a teaser before the knock out punch to 2020...grand finale???  

00z EPS members for the 27th/28th system...

5.png

 

00z EPS...big time signal this far out for a potential massive storm...

3.png

2.png

 

I don't believe I've seen such high amounts predicted run after run in my area since the blizzard of 2011.  That storm was the first of Feb and featured both a deep -AO but also a deep -NAO.

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not liking how a couple models are now showing rain up into Iowa.  The Euro starts with snow in southern Missouri, but it cuts so hard the warmth rockets up through Iowa.

Also. Hopefully the snowpack to the N from this current storm helps suppress, but I'am concerned about liquid.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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While areas to the west and north west will get a lot of snow the next few days, At this time I am not real impressed with the set up for this lake effect event. We shall see if can happen for a white Christmas in our area. The current temperature here at my house is now 40 with mostly cloudy skies. The current mean for December at Grand Rapids is 33.3 and that is +3.0 above average. The total snow fall for December is just a trace and for the season it is just 0.4" and that is now more than 22" below average at this point

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7 minutes ago, whatitdo said:


is there a reason his maps never show anything for west michigan or is that just how this map is? 

 

My assumption is bad model resolution.  But couldn't say for sure.  I wouldn't be concerned about it.  The GEFS map I posted above shows heavy snow for W MI.

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3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I  know I'm the eternal pessimist when it comes to snow, but I'm sensing that this is going to turn out to be a rainer for KC. Another one of those storms that has rain south of the Iowa boarder and snow north of it. I really hope I'm wrong because it looks like someone's getting a major hit off of this one.  Maybe the tanking AO by that time will help.  I'd love to be wrong.

That may be the case.  I do think the -AO will have an influence on it.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z ICON

1609372800-qd7vYhFYHxo.png

That's from multiple storms tho, correct? Going to be confusing/misleading until storms 1 & 2 do whatever they do.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 minutes ago, GDR said:

Cc

78122ECE-4EDF-4B23-BAB5-4D770914D8A2.jpeg

Finally. A batch of ENS's that show more than flurries around these parts. We here in the Mitt really need some -AO magic like never before. The GEFS mean looks a lot like GHD-2 and Dec 2000 bliz. Prolly over-done like all systems at this range, but it's heading in the right direction.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It feels awesome outside w temps in the 40s. Some sunshine coming out as well. A given for this time of the year. Looks like I will be getting rain tanite w a changeover to snow w some accumulations likely, especially late Thurs into Fri. Colder weather follows. Not sure why these clowns are calling it "Arctic Air." Its not! Highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens is a little BN for this time of the year, thats all. No big deal.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

While areas to the west and north west will get a lot of snow the next few days, At this time I am not real impressed with the set up for this lake effect event. We shall see if can happen for a white Christmas in our area. The current temperature here at my house is now 40 with mostly cloudy skies. The current mean for December at Grand Rapids is 33.3 and that is +3.0 above average. The total snow fall for December is just a trace and for the season it is just 0.4" and that is now more than 22" below average at this point

At least you have a WWA for up to 3" meaning the chances of a white Christmas are good. Not gonna make up the entire deficit to date with this LES event, but the timing is nice. With the veering winds, my best hope is actually towards the end of the "window" per models and the GRR. If any significant streamers can make it this far inland, it will most likely be after dark and possibly not until Christmas morning at the earliest, maybe again later Christmas Day or overnight into Saturday if we can keep the flow long enough. Good luck up there.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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