Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 @Clinton You are looking good down the road bud! I can see your area getting clobbered. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Western Iowa is going to get hammered on this run of the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yep, further north than 6z and warmer. Yesterday DVN said a more southerly track is likely though. Quote The progged longwave pattern across North America has a deep trof centered around 83W and a de-amplifying ridge off the west coast. Thus the further north trend of the CMC global appears anomalous as a more southerly track would be favored. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looks like no arctic air is in sight. Average temps to AN or maybe slightly BN, at least for mby. Hopefully, that changes. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 We have to get rid of the cutter action, though. I sure as heck don't want a few inches of snow followed by a surge of mild air and rain. That's New England weather. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Niko said: It feels awesome outside w temps in the 40s. Some sunshine coming out as well. A given for this time of the year. Looks like I will be getting rain tanite w a changeover to snow w some accumulations likely, especially late Thurs into Fri. Colder weather follows. Not sure why these clowns are calling it "Arctic Air." Its not! Highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens is a little BN for this time of the year, thats all. No big deal. I have a low of 16F with snowshowers Friday morning here. I don't think you can call that "summer air", lol. Especially with the windchills around ZERO. Besides, the reference to the source region defines how they term it, even if modified by the time it reaches us. Btw, are you going to NYC for Christmas to watch the big melt-off? (j/k) Hoping to get whitened up around here by Friday to add to the festive feel. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Where will the ice/sleet line be is a concern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Still 6 full days away, GFS gets cranking at hour 144, so for now I'm just excited about the prospects of a storm. Definitely concerned about the warm surge and p-type issues that always accompany these types of storms though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Yep, further north than 6z and warmer. Yesterday DVN said a more southerly track is likely though. Where does the energy come onshore out west? If further south, then yeah, the more southern track should play out. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 No thanks. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Here is just 24 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 These are stupid totals. I can't say I've ever received a 10" snowfall and then almost immediately after turn into a massive rainstorm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The GFS continues to track this monster north of me and I believe it. I expect the other models will fall in line in future runs. The GFS sniffed out the current storm correctly so I expect to get nothing as long as it keeps it north. 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I have a low of 16F with snowshowers Friday morning here. I don't think you can call that "summer air", lol. Especially with the windchills around ZERO. Besides, the reference to the source region defines how they term it, even if modified by the time it reaches us. Btw, are you going to NYC for Christmas to watch the big melt-off? (j/k) Hoping to get whitened up around here by Friday to add to the festive feel. No, its not Summer, but its not Arctic air either. After all, it is MI right. Unfortunately not this yr w this fu***ing Covid. Melt -off indeed, but hey, at least they got a decent snowfall there in NYC, whereas, Macomb has been getting peanuts as of lately. Yep, good luck w your area on Friday. Looks like you should get some decent LES, if winds are favorable. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Don’t want to be in the hot zone this far out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 @jaster220 I am keeping an eye on the low retrograding back towards Eastern Lakes area for late tomorrow and into Friday. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 NOAA: The big question is howmuch eastward momentum/push does the front have by Thursday morning,as the lead upper level PV energy/aggressive 500 MB 6 hr height fall center tracks north-northeast through eastern Lake Superior. Meanwhile, phasing of a northern stream/arctic wave with subtropical jet/southern energy along the Gulf Coast states will occur on Thursday, with a deep closed 500 MB low developing in and around Central Mississippi River Valley into Kentucky/Tennessee by day`s end. This will make for a real interesting forecast by Thursday evening, as cyclogensis takes place and surface low tracks through Central Pennsylvania or possibly close to Pittsburgh. The strength of the surface low and the developing trowal arching back through the Eastern Great Lakes will determine if eastern areas get clipped with accumulating snow as the trough axis goes negative tilt. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Niko said: NOAA: The big question is howmuch eastward momentum/push does the front have by Thursday morning,as the lead upper level PV energy/aggressive 500 MB 6 hr height fall center tracks north-northeast through eastern Lake Superior. Meanwhile, phasing of a northern stream/arctic wave with subtropical jet/southern energy along the Gulf Coast states will occur on Thursday, with a deep closed 500 MB low developing in and around Central Mississippi River Valley into Kentucky/Tennessee by day`s end. This will make for a real interesting forecast by Thursday evening, as cyclogensis takes place and surface low tracks through Central Pennsylvania or possibly close to Pittsburgh. The strength of the surface low and the developing trowal arching back through the Eastern Great Lakes will determine if eastern areas get clipped with accumulating snow as the trough axis goes negative tilt. This potential for SEMI to get swiped reminds me of the 12/23/04 storm that did just that. Had flurries here while Detroit got 6-7" and even my old home town up in Genese Cnty had a solid 4-5". Was really cold Christmas Eve too. 5F I can remember. The good old days.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: This potential for SEMI to get swiped reminds me of the 12/23/04 storm that did just that. Had flurries here while Detroit got 6-7" and even my old home town up in Genese Cnty had a solid 4-5". Was really cold Christmas Eve too. 5F I can remember. The good old days.. That must have been frustrating for ya....Yikes! Btw: Dont forget to have milk and cookies ready for Santa on Christmas Eve... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The Canadian has enough of a wnw flow over the northern plains/midwest to keep the big system more suppressed than the GFS. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Niko said: That must have been frustrating for ya....Yikes! Btw: Dont forget to have milk and cookies ready for Santa on Christmas Eve... Np, bought my fave kind 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 hours ago, jaster220 said: Of rain?? I was referring to that snow map where even though we had the circle of lower amounts over us, it was still 8” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Np, bought my fave kind My wife is making Greek Butter Cookies, which are phenomenal. Also, I am expecting lots of packages from NYC, so looking forward to that. Here is an i.e. of a batch of Greek Christmas Cookies: "Kourabiedes" The ones on the right are called Melomakarona: 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The Canadian makes all my wildest dreams come true. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The Canadian is a dream for Iowa. It's a better scenario for many in the region because the flow prevents a cutter. 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 CMC the next 10 days is great for most 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Canadian is a dream for Iowa. 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: CMC the next 10 days is great for most Would have been nice, if this covered our friend Okwx as well. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, Niko said: My wife is making Greek Butter Cookies, which are phenomenal. Also, I am expecting lots of packages from NYC, so looking forward to that. Here is an i.e. of a batch of Greek Christmas Cookies: "Kourabiedes" The ones on the right are called Melomakarona: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 47 minutes ago, mlgamer said: The GFS continues to track this monster north of me and I believe it. I expect the other models will fall in line in future runs. The GFS sniffed out the current storm correctly so I expect to get nothing as long as it keeps it north. I wouldn’t give up hope. The only issue I see is someone will have to deal with ice it appears. Hopefully we all share in this monster. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, indianajohn said: Get ready to gain some pounds bud! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Ukie showing some light snow on Sunday now as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Niko said: Get ready to gain some pounds bud! i know.... melamakarona is my weakness!!!! I can have 20 of them with out blinking an eye LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The winds are absolutely howling right now in Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 I'd be ok with the Canadian. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 51 minutes ago, indianajohn said: i know.... melamakarona is my weakness!!!! I can have 20 of them with out blinking an eye LOL Yep, same here. Vasilopita (Greek Sweet Bread for those who do not know) is also amazing to dip in milk. I can eat multiple pieces easily, especially, when they are fresh. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z GEFS mean 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z GFS and CMC runs were less favorable for me...still a great storm to track. Trends will be interesting in the days ahead. For me... GFS: Rain/T-storms, dry slot, 1-2" snow on the back end. CMC: 18+hrs sleet/FZR, 6-11" snow on the back end. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, mlgamer said: 12z GFS and CMC runs were less favorable for me...still a great storm to track. Trends will be interesting in the days ahead. For me... GFS: Rain/T-storms, dry slot, 1-2" snow on the back end. Canadian: 18+hrs sleet/FZR, 6-8" snow on the back end. Went back and dug into the Nov thread, this storm was big then. Lots of differences this time, the AO was high + around the 10th of Nov this time it will be fairly deep negative. The jet stream should be stronger now as well, this baby should dig. I think you are in a golden spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GEFS mean Holy smokes some big hits on there! That's crazy to see a mean that high this far out. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Went back and dug into the Nov thread, this storm was big then. Lots of differences this time, the AO was high + around the 10th of Nov this time it will be fairly deep negative. The jet stream should be stronger now as well, this baby should dig. I think you are in a golden spot. Yeah, I hope we both score big on this. I'll be a lot happier if the GFS trends south. The track it's taking is pretty typical for our area though so that's a worry... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.