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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Yep, further north than 6z and warmer.  Yesterday DVN said a more southerly track is likely though.

 

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The progged longwave pattern across North America has a deep trof centered around 83W and a de-amplifying ridge off the west coast. Thus the further north trend of the CMC global appears anomalous as a more southerly track would be favored.

 

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Looks like no arctic air is in sight. Average temps to AN or maybe slightly BN, at least for mby. Hopefully, that changes.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We have to get rid of the cutter action, though.  I sure as heck don't want a few inches of snow followed by a surge of mild air and rain.  That's New England weather.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

It feels awesome outside w temps in the 40s. Some sunshine coming out as well. A given for this time of the year. Looks like I will be getting rain tanite w a changeover to snow w some accumulations likely, especially late Thurs into Fri. Colder weather follows. Not sure why these clowns are calling it "Arctic Air." Its not! Highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens is a little BN for this time of the year, thats all. No big deal.

I have a low of 16F with snowshowers Friday morning here. I don't think you can call that "summer air", lol. Especially with the windchills around ZERO. Besides, the reference to the source region defines how they term it, even if modified by the time it reaches us. Btw, are you going to NYC for Christmas to watch the big melt-off? (j/k) Hoping to get whitened up around here by Friday to add to the festive feel.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yep, further north than 6z and warmer.  Yesterday DVN said a more southerly track is likely though.

 

 

Where does the energy come onshore out west? If further south, then yeah, the more southern track should play out.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GFS continues to track this monster north of me and I believe it. I expect the other models will fall in line in future runs. The GFS sniffed out the current storm correctly so I expect to get nothing as long as it keeps it north.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I have a low of 16F with snowshowers Friday morning here. I don't think you can call that "summer air", lol. Especially with the windchills around ZERO. Besides, the reference to the source region defines how they term it, even if modified by the time it reaches us. Btw, are you going to NYC for Christmas to watch the big melt-off? (j/k) Hoping to get whitened up around here by Friday to add to the festive feel.

No, its not Summer, but its not Arctic air either. After all, it is MI right.

Unfortunately not this yr w this fu***ing Covid. Melt -off indeed, but hey, at least they got a decent snowfall there in NYC, whereas, Macomb has been getting peanuts as of lately.

Yep, good luck w your area on Friday. Looks like you should get some decent LES, if winds are favorable.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@jaster220

I am keeping an eye on the low retrograding back towards Eastern Lakes area  for late tomorrow and into Friday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

The big question is howmuch eastward momentum/push does the front have by 
Thursday morning,as the lead upper level PV energy/aggressive 500 MB 6 hr height fall
center tracks north-northeast through eastern Lake Superior.
Meanwhile, phasing of a northern stream/arctic wave with subtropical
jet/southern energy along the Gulf Coast states will occur on
Thursday, with a deep closed 500 MB low developing in and around
Central Mississippi River Valley into Kentucky/Tennessee by day`s
end. This will make for a real interesting forecast by Thursday
evening, as cyclogensis takes place and surface low tracks through
Central Pennsylvania or possibly close to Pittsburgh. The strength
of the surface low and the developing trowal arching back through
the Eastern Great Lakes will determine if eastern areas get clipped
with accumulating snow as the trough axis goes negative tilt.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

NOAA:


The big question is howmuch eastward momentum/push does the front have by 
Thursday morning,as the lead upper level PV energy/aggressive 500 MB 6 hr height fall
center tracks north-northeast through eastern Lake Superior.
Meanwhile, phasing of a northern stream/arctic wave with subtropical
jet/southern energy along the Gulf Coast states will occur on
Thursday, with a deep closed 500 MB low developing in and around
Central Mississippi River Valley into Kentucky/Tennessee by day`s
end. This will make for a real interesting forecast by Thursday
evening, as cyclogensis takes place and surface low tracks through
Central Pennsylvania or possibly close to Pittsburgh. The strength
of the surface low and the developing trowal arching back through
the Eastern Great Lakes will determine if eastern areas get clipped
with accumulating snow as the trough axis goes negative tilt.

This potential for SEMI to get swiped reminds me of the 12/23/04 storm that did just that. Had flurries here while Detroit got 6-7" and even my old home town up in Genese Cnty had a solid 4-5". Was really cold Christmas Eve too. 5F I can remember. The good old days..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This potential for SEMI to get swiped reminds me of the 12/23/04 storm that did just that. Had flurries here while Detroit got 6-7" and even my old home town up in Genese Cnty had a solid 4-5". Was really cold Christmas Eve too. 5F I can remember. The good old days..

That must have been frustrating for ya....Yikes!

Btw: Dont forget to have milk and cookies ready for Santa on Christmas Eve...😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Canadian has enough of a wnw flow over the northern plains/midwest to keep the big system more suppressed than the GFS.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

That must have been frustrating for ya....Yikes!

Btw: Dont forget to have milk and cookies ready for Santa on Christmas Eve...😉

Np, bought my fave kind

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Np, bought my fave kind

My wife is making Greek Butter Cookies, which are phenomenal. Also, I am expecting lots of packages from NYC, so looking forward to that.

Here is an i.e. of a batch of Greek Christmas Cookies:

"Kourabiedes"https://www.mygreekdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Easiest-Homemade-Kourabiedes-Christmas-Butter-Cookies-22.jpg

The ones on the right are called Melomakarona:

https://newrecipesforlife.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/kourabiedes-melamakarona.jpg

 

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Canadian is a dream for Iowa.  It's a better scenario for many in the region because the flow prevents a cutter.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Canadian is a dream for Iowa.

 

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CMC the next 10 days is great for most

gem_asnow_ncus_40.png

Would have been nice, if this covered our friend Okwx as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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20 minutes ago, Niko said:

My wife is making Greek Butter Cookies, which are phenomenal. Also, I am expecting lots of packages from NYC, so looking forward to that.

Here is an i.e. of a batch of Greek Christmas Cookies:

"Kourabiedes"https://www.mygreekdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Easiest-Homemade-Kourabiedes-Christmas-Butter-Cookies-22.jpg

The ones on the right are called Melomakarona:

https://newrecipesforlife.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/kourabiedes-melamakarona.jpg

 

 

 

 

Image may contain: 1 person, meme, text that says 'WHEN YOU GIVE NON GREEKS VIA GREEKGATEWAY GREEKGATEWAY.COM COM GREEKGA KOURABIEDES FOR THE FIRST TIME'

 

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47 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The GFS continues to track this monster north of me and I believe it. I expect the other models will fall in line in future runs. The GFS sniffed out the current storm correctly so I expect to get nothing as long as it keeps it north.

I wouldn’t give up hope. The only issue I see is someone will have to deal with ice it appears. Hopefully we all share in this monster. 

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5 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

 

Image may contain: 1 person, meme, text that says 'WHEN YOU GIVE NON GREEKS VIA GREEKGATEWAY GREEKGATEWAY.COM COM GREEKGA KOURABIEDES FOR THE FIRST TIME'

 

Get ready to gain some pounds bud! 😄

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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51 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

i know.... melamakarona is my weakness!!!! I can have 20 of them with out blinking an eye LOL

Yep, same here. Vasilopita (Greek Sweet Bread for those who do not know) is also amazing to dip in milk. I can eat multiple pieces easily, especially, when they are fresh.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z GFS and CMC runs were less favorable for me...still a great storm to track. Trends will be interesting in the days ahead.

For me...

GFS: Rain/T-storms, dry slot, 1-2" snow on the back end.

CMC: 18+hrs sleet/FZR, 6-11" snow on the back end.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Just now, mlgamer said:

12z GFS and CMC runs were less favorable for me...still a great storm to track. Trends will be interesting in the days ahead.

For me...

GFS: Rain/T-storms, dry slot, 1-2" snow on the back end.

Canadian: 18+hrs sleet/FZR, 6-8" snow on the back end.

Went back and dug into the Nov thread, this storm was big then.  Lots of differences this time, the AO was high + around the 10th of Nov this time it will be fairly deep negative.  The jet stream should be stronger now as well, this baby should dig.  I think you are in a golden spot.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Went back and dug into the Nov thread, this storm was big then.  Lots of differences this time, the AO was high + around the 10th of Nov this time it will be fairly deep negative.  The jet stream should be stronger now as well, this baby should dig.  I think you are in a golden spot.

Yeah, I hope we both score big on this. I'll be a lot happier if the GFS trends south. The track it's taking is pretty typical for our area though so that's a worry...😬😉

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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