Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Yeah, I hope we both score big on this. I'll be a lot happier if the GFS trends south. The track it's taking is pretty typical for our area though so that's a worry... I hope I get in on it. I'm afraid I may get on to some ice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 A little windy, but I’m going golfing. Near 50 with no snow and dry ground on dec 23rd?!? Heck yeah 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 For the big storm next week, the 12z Euro is in closer to the GFS than the Canadian. It's a massive trough that will pull a ton of moisture up into the region. I'll be PO'd if we get rain out of this. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 29 minutes ago, tStacsh said: A little windy, but I’m going golfing. Near 50 with no snow and dry ground on dec 23rd?!? Heck yeah I drove home all the way across South Dakota and then down I29 to Omaha last night making it home about 1am and the temp was never below 47 degrees with zero snow anywhere. Of course I was driving home last night to avoid the blizzard of today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z Euro weaker and warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Holy 12z Euro. It barely moves. Going to potentially be tremendous amounts of snow for some and also potentially a lot of ice and or sleet for some. This thing is a beast. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 At first, the Euro appears to have a bit more suppressive flow that might keep the snow farther south, but then the flow to the north relaxes and the warmth surges... major bummer. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yeah. Not happy with that run. But still a long ways away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Jeez, the Euro has rain up to Lake Superior this run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yep, 12z Euro shows warm surge overtaking me similar to GFS. I know it's way early but this already feels like the kiss of death. Once a storm trends away from here on the models it pretty much never returns. On to the 00z suite I guess...lol Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Nebraska and west Iowa get pounded. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 This run the SLP retrogrades; if that happens someone would get walloped with snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 There are going to be a ton of changes to come. It’s frustrating how far north that warm air surges. Hopefully the Canadian has the right idea. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, gabel23 said: This run the SLP retrogrades; if that happens someone would get walloped with snow. Shows snow in Nebraska for at least 3 days. I’d love to experience something like this, but not assuming anything. Lots of changes in the next 6 days, I’d think. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Look at that huge ridge in the east... a killer for most of us. When the storm's energy moves into the sw US, there is a trough in the lakes/east, but as the storm moves out into the plains the eastern troughiness rapidly lifts out and is replaced that this monster ridge. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: Shows snow in Nebraska for at least 3 days. I’d love to experience something like this, but not assuming anything. Lots of changes in the next 6 days, I’d think. The models are actually not in too bad of agreement being this far out. I just hope warm air doesn't ruin the fun for us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Euro with a record breaker for us if this came to fruition. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Long ways out but it's fun to note....GFS, EURO and CMC all have 1-2' of snow for parts of the central plains including me. Hard to believe that would happen so I guess will see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Really not much cold air to the NW behind said system. At least not what one would think compared to similar outcomes in the past. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 OAX might be getting excited about next week. Looking far ahead to next week, models remain consistent in showing another very strong winter storm Tuesday through Thursday. This storm system has the potential for very heavy snow and strong winds. Much more to come on this next big winter storm in the coming days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z Euro Control very similar to the op. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 12z EPS Mean maybe starting to zero in. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro Control very similar to the op. My gosh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 I really hope this is NOT a hard cutter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Love it. 52 officially. I have 55 here. More golf next week? #wintercanceledinWestMichigan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Officially 54 in GR. 5 over predicted high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 The sun has now came out and the temperate is now up to 54 and it has became rather windy as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 While it is 54 here at my house the last official reading at GRR looks to have been 52. Even that 52 would make this the 4th warmest December 23 of record here at GR. 54 would make it 3rd warmest of record. The record is 60 set in 2015. The sun was ut for a short while but the sky is now very dark tot he west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, james1976 said: I really hope this is NOT a hard cutter Don't get sucked in otherwise it will ruin you. At this point you have to go with probably a hard cutter or suppressed to maybe flurries. Until this climate changes around these parts expect nothing 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 hours ago, bud2380 said: The winds are absolutely howling right now in Cedar Rapids. I had a little business to do nearby and wanted to do it before the cold front blasts through, so I took my 1000w fat tire ebike out for a spin. The cf blew in soon after I started off and it nearly blew me off of the road a few times! Lol I can go over 30 mph with a full battery, but not in an angle or toward wind plus it would be kinda dangerous. Later checked and my top wind speed was at least 53 mph. Also the temperature peaked at 57°, now it’s back in the 30°s. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Attm, light rain and a balmy 42F. Is this Michigan or what? What a j/k LOL. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Improvement on the GFS. Not as warm or as far north, at least it stays cold and south long enough to dump major snow amounts. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 I could handle 13". LOL. I like this run a lot more than the last one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just looked at the forecast for next week on one of my weather apps. Monday night 1” Tuesday. 5-8” Tuesday night 3-5” Wednesday. 1-3” Wednesday night 1-3” I don’t remember forecasted amounts that high so far from a snow event. Will be fun and probably frustrating at times to see them go up and down over the next 5 days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro Control very similar to the op. Lets give some to Okwx. He deserves it. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 NWS Hastings already discussing next week. Fast forwarding several days ahead to the next storm system that appears to be looming for next week, there are 2 key differences between the current one and this one: 1) The one next week is a more classic/slow-moving/large-scale system that for being 6+ days out has an impressive amount of agreement between the ECMWF/GFS model solutions on being a potentially-impactful snow maker for at least portions of our CWA, along with likely strong winds. As a result, instead of being a quick-hitter such as today`s with winter impacts mainly occurring within a 15-18 hour time window, the one next week could be a longer-duration winter storm, perhaps of the 36-48 hour variety. 2) As a result of #1, and from a messaging/awareness standpoint, this next one will likely get a lot more play/attention than the one today ended up getting, as they are just completely different "animals" from a forecast confidence perspective. Both those points being made, we certainly want to make it clear that it is WAY too early to provide any kind of detail regarding next week`s system (including snow amounts) as there is plenty of time for at least a slight shift in timing and perhaps a more significant north-south shift in storm track to increase/decrease snow potential. As a result, snow chances/PoPs have been capped at no-higher-than 50 percent for now. However, given it is the holiday travel season, felt it would be prudent to at least introduce some "winter storm possible but still highly uncertain) wording to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) earlier today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 18z GEFS mean 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 Well been driving all day to see family and haven't gotten to follow much but wow! If this actually happens could be a record but at the very least one for the books. Just in time for us getting back after travels. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 My office watching next weeks storm. Mid-next week, the forecast gets interesting. Long range solutions, including a bullish ECMWF, continue to introduce a strong 500mb trough digging east off the central Rockies, with substantial moisture advection and focused isentropic ascent ahead of the associated surface trough into eastern Kansas and western Missouri through Wednesday Morning. The Origin of this feature is the Mid Pacific coast, with the trough maintaining a rather open structure as it crosses the Sierra Nevadas before lifting across the Four Corners and ejecting eastward over the Rockies. Because of this more mid-latitude track, it`s not transporting the more colder arctic airmass that today`s system is bringing across the mid-Missouri River valley and the upper Mississippi. Now, working top-down, solutions suggest sufficient saturation through the dendritic growth zone and the wet bulb zero line would dip as far south as the OK/TX Red River border on the windward side of the trough. This suggests snow development would be the dominant precip type for a good portion of the plains. Farther east, however, warm air advection ahead of the surface trough muddles the situation, with rain or a wintry mix a likely possibility for late morning and into the afternoon. In short, precipitation is likely on Wednesday, but what form/type, that`s the question, whose answer will take time to figure out as we move through the weekend into early next week. The best course of option right now is to make a mental note that Wednesday could be a messy day and the details will continue to be shaken out between now and early next week. && 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2020 Report Share Posted December 23, 2020 24 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GEFS mean Nice bullseye right over me 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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