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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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For the big storm next week, the 12z Euro is in closer to the GFS than the Canadian.  It's a massive trough that will pull a ton of moisture up into the region.  I'll be PO'd if we get rain out of this.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

A little windy, but I’m going golfing.  Near 50 with no snow and dry ground on dec 23rd?!?  Heck yeah 

I drove home all the way across South Dakota and then down I29 to Omaha last night making it home about 1am and the temp was never below 47 degrees with zero snow anywhere. Of course I was driving home last night to avoid the blizzard of today!

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At first, the Euro appears to have a bit more suppressive flow that might keep the snow farther south, but then the flow to the north relaxes and the warmth surges... major bummer.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yep, 12z Euro shows warm surge overtaking me similar to GFS. I know it's way early but this already feels like the kiss of death. Once a storm trends away from here on the models it pretty much never returns. On to the 00z suite I guess...lol

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Look at that huge ridge in the east... a killer for most of us.  When the storm's energy moves into the sw US, there is a trough in the lakes/east, but as the storm moves out into the plains the eastern troughiness rapidly lifts out and is replaced that this monster ridge.

500hv.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Shows snow in Nebraska for at least 3 days. I’d love to experience something like this, but not assuming anything. Lots of changes in the next 6 days, I’d think. 

The models are actually not in too bad of agreement being this far out. I just hope warm air doesn't ruin the fun for us!

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While it is 54 here at my house the last official reading at GRR looks to have been 52. Even that 52 would make this the 4th warmest December 23 of record here at GR. 54 would make it 3rd warmest of record. The record is 60 set in 2015. The sun was ut for a short while but the sky is now very dark tot he west.

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

I really hope this is NOT a hard cutter

Don't get sucked in otherwise it will ruin you. At this point you have to go with probably a hard cutter or suppressed to maybe flurries. Until this climate changes around these parts expect nothing 

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4 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The winds are absolutely howling right now in Cedar Rapids. 

I had a little business to do nearby and wanted to do it before the cold front blasts through, so I took my 1000w fat tire ebike out for a spin. The cf blew in soon after I started off and it nearly blew me off of the road a few times! Lol  I can go over 30 mph with a full battery, but not in an angle or toward  wind plus it would be kinda dangerous.
Later checked and my top wind speed was at least 53 mph. Also the temperature peaked at 57°, now it’s back in the 30°s. 

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Attm, light rain and a balmy 42F. Is this Michigan or what? What a j/k LOL.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just looked at the forecast for next week on one of my weather apps. 
 

Monday night 1”

Tuesday.     5-8”

Tuesday night 3-5”

Wednesday. 1-3”

Wednesday night 1-3”

I don’t remember forecasted amounts that high so far from a snow event. Will be fun and probably frustrating at times to see them go up and down over the next 5 days. 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro Control very similar to the op.

1609545600-qgEMAFcTCSY.png

Lets give some to Okwx. He deserves it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NWS Hastings already discussing next week. 


Fast forwarding several days ahead to the next storm system that appears to be looming for next week, there are 2 key differences between the current one and this one: 1) The one next week is a more classic/slow-moving/large-scale system that for being 6+ days out has an impressive amount of agreement between the ECMWF/GFS model solutions on being a potentially-impactful snow maker for at least portions of our CWA, along with likely strong winds. As a result, instead of being a quick-hitter such as today`s with winter impacts mainly occurring within a 15-18 hour time window, the one next week could be a longer-duration winter storm, perhaps of the 36-48 hour variety. 2) As a result of #1, and from a messaging/awareness standpoint, this next one will likely get a lot more play/attention than the one today ended up getting, as they are just completely different "animals" from a forecast confidence perspective. Both those points being made, we certainly want to make it clear that it is WAY too early to provide any kind of detail regarding next week`s system (including snow amounts) as there is plenty of time for at least a slight shift in timing and perhaps a more significant north-south shift in storm track to increase/decrease snow potential. As a result, snow chances/PoPs have been capped at no-higher-than 50 percent for now. However, given it is the holiday travel season, felt it would be prudent to at least introduce some "winter storm possible but still highly uncertain) wording to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) earlier today.

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My office watching next weeks storm.

Mid-next week, the forecast gets interesting. Long range solutions,
including a bullish ECMWF, continue to introduce a strong 500mb
trough digging east off the central Rockies, with substantial
moisture advection and focused isentropic ascent ahead of the
associated surface trough into eastern Kansas and western Missouri
through Wednesday Morning. The Origin of this feature is the Mid
Pacific coast, with the trough maintaining a rather open structure
as it crosses the Sierra Nevadas before lifting across the Four
Corners and ejecting eastward over the Rockies. Because of this more
mid-latitude track, it`s not transporting the more colder arctic
airmass that today`s system is bringing across the mid-Missouri
River valley and the upper Mississippi. Now, working top-down,
solutions suggest sufficient saturation through the dendritic growth
zone and the wet bulb zero line would dip as far south as the OK/TX
Red River border on the windward side of the trough. This suggests
snow development would be the dominant precip type for a good
portion of the plains. Farther east, however, warm air advection
ahead of the surface trough muddles the situation, with rain or a
wintry mix a likely possibility for late morning and into the
afternoon. In short, precipitation is likely on Wednesday, but what
form/type, that`s the question, whose answer will take time to
figure out as we move through the weekend into early next week. The
best course of option right now is to make a mental note that
Wednesday could be a messy day and the details will continue to be
shaken out between now and early next week.

&&
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