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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Temps remained in the 20s today under mostly cloudy skies along w a fresh snowpack. Lows tanite dipping in the upper teens.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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All models are showing a nice burst of snow here around 3-4pm Sunday.  Maybe we can get an inch out of it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What's the deal with the NWS forecast?  I already don't like the way it's always "chance of X before 10am, then X and Y between 10 and 1pm, then Z after 1pm".  Today's forecast says rain and snow this afternoon, even though models show all snow and DVN's discussion has no mention of rain.  For Tuesday and Wednesday, models are mostly changing my area to mix or even rain, and DVN's discussion confirms that, but the actual forecast has all snow with 4-8".  It makes no sense at all.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models generally suggest 0.5-1.0" of snow falling here this afternoon.  The 12k NAM is up to 2".  Models are also showing the possibility of a very narrow band of several inches somewhere from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here is where we stand as we head into the last few days of December and the year. At Grand Rapids the mean for December is 33.0 and that is a departure of +3.2° There has been just 1.2” of snow fall in December and for the season just 1.6” that is just under 2 feet below average where GR should be for this date. Currently with a hazy sun thru clouds it is now up to 33 here at my house.

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27 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Already 1” down and still a few hours to go. Forecast called for less than 0.5”. Bust for the win. 

Yup at least an inch in Vadnais Heights so far. Nice refresher!! I'll be heading back.to Iowa later. Hopefully roads are decent.

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15 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Yup at least an inch in Vadnais Heights so far. Nice refresher!! I'll be heading back.to Iowa later. Hopefully roads are decent.

You got 2 snowfalls while you were in town! Not bad at all. And you’re likely heading home to yet another storm early this week. Safe travels! 

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29 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

You got 2 snowfalls while you were in town! Not bad at all. And you’re likely heading home to yet another storm early this week. Safe travels! 

Really nice snow up here today. Nice and steady, no wind. Definitely well over an inch so far.

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Just now, hlcater said:

Little ZR/IP earlier. Just enough to glaze the roads. Switched over to a very picturesque snow. An inch would be nice?

I was just about to post that.  I don't think we'll be getting much snow accum.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Same ole, same ole here. WAW or CAD. Quite the winter in progress..

 

20201227 Radar 2030.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Meanwhile, WAA over-performing around here (shot up to 42F attm) does not bode well for incoming systems this week. After 3 whole days below freezing and a decent amount of time in the teens, some parking lot puddles remained frozen despite partly sunny and 40F this afternoon.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tonight's little system illustrates well the invisible dividing line between the natural wx zones of the Mitt. Back in the day, we often spoke of getting "north of a line" and experiencing an abrupt change in conditions. This rain/snow line is classic, especially when the SLP bisects the LP.

 

 

20201228 NAM 0z h04 Surf.png

20201228 12 am Surf.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Over night there was some light rain (0.03" here) and a whopping trace of snow fall. So on the morning of December 28, 2020 Decembers official snow fall at Grand Rapids is now 1.2" the total for the season remains at 1.6" That is 25.2" below average. At this time it is cloudy and 33 both here and at the airport. Yesterdays official high of 41 was reached just before midnight and todays high will be at least 40 reached just after midnight. It now looks like the mean temperature for the year will put 2020 in one of the top 12 warmest years of record.

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Cloudy attm w temps at 34F. Looks like a blustery, raw day out there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Meanwhile, WAA over-performing around here (shot up to 42F attm) does not bode well for incoming systems this week. After 3 whole days below freezing and a decent amount of time in the teens, some parking lot puddles remained frozen despite partly sunny and 40F this afternoon.

Yep...since the ground is frozen, water has nowhere to go, (cannot go in the soil), so expect some big time flooding, if rain happens to be the dominant feature.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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