December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

I now have recorded 1.50" of total rain for this event. The temperature is now at 37 here at my house and it is still raining. Up north there are reports of heavy snow falling at Gaylord and Alpena and it is windy there as well with winds in the 20 to 25 MPH range with gust near 30. Over at Saginaw the winds are high but the temperature is at 40 so they are getting rain. The kind of reminds me of a Christmas eve storm back in the 1970's I will look it up and let you know when that was.

[westMJim]

19 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I now have recorded 1.50" of total rain for this event. The temperature is now at 37 here at my house and it is still raining. Up north there are reports of heavy snow falling at Gaylord and Alpena and it is windy there as well with winds in the 20 to 25 MPH range with gust near 30. Over at Saginaw the winds are high but the temperature is at 40 so they are getting rain. The kind of reminds me of a Christmas eve storm back in the 1970's I will look it up and let you know when that was.

That year in the 1970's was 1979 that year there was a heavy rain event that started late on Christmas eve and carried over into the early morning of Christmas. At Grand Rapids there was 1.79" on Christmas eve and another .38" after midnight on Christmas. I lived in Bay City at the time and over there there was 1.32" of rain and a strong NE wind. On a side note Grand Rapids only recorded 48.5" of snow that winter.

[Madtown]

still nothing of note on models here for the next 10 days. 

[james1976]

Christmas storm showing up on GFS....FWIW

[Niko]

NYC and other big cities on the EC will get potentially clobbered w snow!

[westMJim]

It has just started to snow here at my house with a temperature of 34. I do not expect any acclamation

[whatitdo]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NYC and other big cities on the EC will get potentially clobbered w snow!

Must be nice lol feel like ill never experience a storm of that magnitude 

[Clinton]

Our friend in Oklahoma going to get some snow!

[Niko]

53 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Must be nice lol feel like ill never experience a storm of that magnitude 

Only on the EC dude.

When I used to live in NYC, I've encountered some real doozy snowstorms. The biggest snowfall I've seen in my lifetime was "Blizzard of 96" when nearly 30" fell in Northern part of Queens. I remember the snow falling so heavy and winds being extremely windy, that it was nearly impossible to see the car in front of you as you were driving. The heaviest rates that I have seen was 3 to 4" per/hr. Simply insane! I've experienced a few other heavy snowstorms that offered 20"+, but this was my favorite storms of all.

[Niko]

It turned out to be a beautiful afternoon w partly cloudy skies and temps well AN. What happened to the rainy day that meteorologists were expecting. Attm, its 54F under fair skies and I was also in short sleeve shirt and shorts in mby cleaning up some stuff that needed to get put away for the Winter...i.e, my fire-pit needed some work to be done and my shed-house was cleaned up a bit too. Is this December or what?! Anyhow, turned out to be a glorious weather day.

[snowstorm83]

Looks like OAX has dialed back on temps for the week. Hoping to keep solid snow cover through Thursday, but the sun always has some surprises. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, whatitdo said:

Must be nice lol feel like ill never experience a storm of that magnitude 

FWIW, Chicago NWS Met said this region is overdue for a Big

[Niko]

Insane amounts of snowfall for the EC.......

[Grizzcoat]

Shout Out to OKIEWX (sorry it's not your real username, but we all know we he is) -- For a place that avg's about 10" of snow (if that) congrats!!! Been pretty bleak down there the past few winters. Enjoy--

[OKwx2k4]

43 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Shout Out to OKIEWX (sorry it's not your real username, but we all know we he is) -- For a place that avg's about 10" of snow (if that) congrats!!! Been pretty bleak down there the past few winters. Enjoy--

Brother, you know I'm excited. I can't wait. All smiles right now.

Its ok on the name. Lol. I know who you're talking to.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Insane amounts of snowfall for the EC.......

Totally sucks to be in that zone between heavy snow swaths.  Oh wait! That's us, never-mind.

[Niko]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Totally sucks to be in that zone between heavy snow swaths.  Oh wait! That's us, never-mind.

My forecast looks extremely dry for all of next week and rather cold w 20s for highs by mid week and teens for lows. Unfortunately, the 40s return again by Sunday again. Geez!

 

Btw: 58F was the high today. Tbh, felt good being outside doing some yard work in such mild weather this time of the year. Did not break a record high temp, but came darn close.

[jaster220]

On 12/11/2020 at 8:44 PM, whatitdo said:

https://howmuchwillitsnow.com/in/kalamazoo/mi

@jaster220 cool website that shows the days of snowfall in a chart like representation. So far Kalamazoo has had only 1 inch total snowfall the whole season (and all were pretty much trace events). Over the last 6 years, the average has been 57.5 inches of snow. Judging how next weeks forecast is looking, it seems that in order to get to at least average snowfall the rest of the year, it has to look somewhat like the winter of 2017-2018 did. So it's possible we still see an average snowfall winter but it would have to get going pretty soon if we stand a shot. Or else it's looking like we can be below the previous low in the last 6 years of 45 inches (2016-2017). What are your thoughts?

That's a little bit like my own home made snowfall table actually.

As for thoughts. A couple observations. We've now had 2 sizeable systems dump double digit snow amounts just east and north of us. Per that winter outlook I posted by retired NWS Met William Deedler the analog list reveals the odds of a large storm are 2:1 in our favor (8 vs 4 analog seasons to be exact). Those are really favorable odds as wx goes. I'm starting to believe it's a matter of time until we're handed a winning ticket here in SWMI. But like those scratch-off lottery tickets, we won't know if we hold a $5 winner or a $5,000 winner until we get there, lol. As for sustained winter, that's not really been a theme in most good Nina's, but with some potential features of 13-14 in play we could see a very active period where everything clicks. As for getting going soon or it's a lost cause. There were many decent winters that didn't really get going until near the holidays. Even for NMI when I lived there back in 93-94 there was literally no snow until Dec 23rd. Then the worst onslaught began and didn't stop. Even in SWMI it's possible to get nearly an entire season's worth of snow in a single month (see Dec 2000) so we could quickly make up for lost time if we turn a corner. Even tho this storm was too warm for us, it has elevated my optimism a notch or two. Even the deep south is getting in on snowstorms. Our poster friend OKwx has been waiting the longest on here to get a decent snowfall/season. Going to give this a chance to work. For now, we should make some pond ice this week and get these warm soil temps going in the right direction so if/when we get some decent snow it's not just melting from beneath.

[jaster220]

Grass has whitened-up here. Eye-balling a couple tenths on the deck. Total shut-out avoided.

[Jaycee]

Still haven’t seen a flake in Chicago this year! How the turn tables. Happy for all of you in the snow dome around us :)) hopefully we get something soon, so overdue in this city. 

[OKwx2k4]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Grass has whitened-up here. Eye-balling a couple tenths on the deck. Total shut-out avoided.

Its going to happen for you man. The odds are stacked pretty high for you going forward in my opinion.

[OKwx2k4]

4 minutes ago, Jaycee said:

Still haven’t seen a flake in Chicago this year! How the turn tables. Happy for all of you in the snow dome around us :)) hopefully we get something soon, so overdue in this city. 

Here's hoping. If I can finally get snow, you can too!

[Tom]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That's a little bit like my own home made snowfall table actually.

As for thoughts. A couple observations. We've now had 2 sizeable systems dump double digit snow amounts just east and north of us. Per that winter outlook I posted by retired NWS Met William Deedler the analog list reveals the odds of a large storm are 2:1 in our favor (8 vs 4 analog seasons to be exact). Those are really favorable odds as wx goes. I'm starting to believe it's a matter of time until we're handed a winning ticket here in SWMI. But like those scratch-off lottery tickets, we won't know if we hold a $5 winner or a $5.000 winner until we get there, lol. As for sustained winter, that's not really been a theme in most good Nina's, but with some potential features of 13-14 in play we could see a very active period where everything clicks. As for getting going soon or it's a lost cause. There were many decent winters that didn't really get going until near the holidays. Even for NMI when I lived there back in 93-94 there was literally no snow until Dec 23rd. Then the worst onslaught began and didn't stop. Even in SWMI it's possible to get nearly an entire season's worth of snow in a single month (see Dec 2000) so we could quickly make up for lost time if we turn a corner. Even tho this storm was too warm for us, it has elevated my optimism a notch or two. Even the deep south is getting in on snowstorms. Our poster friend OKwx has been waiting the longest on here to get a decent snowfall/season. Going to give this a chance to work. For now, we should make some pond ice this week and get these warm soil temps going in the right direction so if/when we get some decent snow it's not just melting from beneath.

In reference to the bolded, I have been thinking about this over the past couple days since reality began settling in that we were going to miss out on the recent snowstorm.  Temps have steadily crept lower in my forecast for next week which will allow for great ice formation on the lakes/ponds and cool off surface temps when we do get our next chance of some snowfall.  The fact that winter storms are showing up all across the CONUS, esp the deep south for our friend @OKwx2k4is a true testament of where this Winter may be heading.  I feel we are way over due in the S MW/Lower Lakes region for a Big Dog or two this season. 

Speaking of which, based on the LRC and the BSR, there is a strong potential for a BIG storm due right around the Christmas Holiday that will have arctic air to work with.  There are signs the EPO is going to play ball this time along with the high lat blocking.  Things are beginning to stack up in the right direction for a change.

00z EPS has been correcting towards a deeper trough around Christmas...that energy in the SW should eject out a little quicker as we get closer in time.  We've seen this play out in the models in the extended throughout this season.  I recall this part of the LRC as the stronger second piece that dug into the SW and tracked up towards the GL's deepening into a powerful wind making machine.  I believe it was the storm that happened back in early Nov in NE/IA/MN.

 

Yesterday's 00z GEFS LR model is picking up on the 2-part system around Christmas...1st lead wave targeting Upper MW??  Then a second piece farther south into the GL's....

 

 

 

 

Meantime, looks like the odds are increasing that JB will finally get his Big Nor' Easter...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

This comment may be off topic but I thought I'd throw it out there.  I'm not a conspiracy type of guy but I'm also not naive and I can read between the "fine lines" and see the "signs" so to speak.  Anyhow, you hear Dr. Fauci and all these top officials saying to prepare for "Dark Winter".  Did it ever cross your mind maybe they are referring to ACTUAL Winter and not the virus???  Or Both???  I've been thinking about this a lot lately and when I analyze what I've been seeing in the climate models, esp the robust trends in the CFSv2 of a brutal looking January...you have to wonder if these scientists or gov't officials have known that this Winter could be an epic one for the CONUS.  Something to ponder about as we move along...

 

Meantime, I think this is what @OKwx2k4was talking about that winter's fury is about to begin late month into Jan...

Jan 18th '21...Ice Box nation...

[Tom]

Some LR thoughts and pattern progression on this 13th day of December...it's actually my cousins 50th B Day in Poland and my little nephew's B- Day (8 y.o. iirc).  Based on the data that continues to roll in as we get closer in time, the models are picking up on the NE PAC ridge to fire up heading into Week 2.  Using the 10mb LR tool of mine, it appears it will shine...I remember the Euro Weeklies and EPS had a major trough hugging W NAMER not long ago, but over the past few days it is flipping Bigly in this region which will cut off the PAC flow.  Instead, Arctic Air will begin to infiltrate the lower 48 and "Make America Wintry Again"....

You will see the ribbon of blue develop around Dec 1st that stretches from the Baja/So Cal region (LRC Signature) into the central CONUS, simultaneously, the light orange/reds develop near the Florida/SE Coast.  Boy, this is about as an ideal LR "look" that will correlate towards a neutral to slightly (-) PNA along with a neutral to (-) EPO producing a very favorable storm track coming out of the SW.  I'm predicting this pattern to set up around the Christmas Holiday through the New Year into Jan.  There are indications that this pattern may hold serve for a longer period and produce quite a ferocious Winter onslaught.

 

 

Is it possible that Severe Winter may take over???  I'm beginning to lean this way and some of the colder analogs may be at play.  Again, I look up in the Strat and the GEFS are suggesting another major SSW burst by months end that could be the dagger to disrupt the Polar Vortex.  The CFSv2 has been suggesting a Major Mid Warming event in early Jan which would make sense based on the model data coming in.  Let's put it this way, I'm becoming more convinced that we are heading in the right direction instead of the wrong way for winter wx enthusiasts.

00z GEFS...starting to "see" the Christmas special...SW Flow???

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb strat animation...looking pretty way up in the atmosphere...

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

This comment may be off topic but I thought I'd throw it out there.  I'm not a conspiracy type of guy but I'm also not naive and I can read between the "fine lines" and see the "signs" so to speak.  Anyhow, you hear Dr. Fauci and all these top officials saying to prepare for "Dark Winter".  Did it ever cross your mind maybe they are referring to ACTUAL Winter and not the virus???  Or Both???  I've been thinking about this a lot lately and when I analyze what I've been seeing in the climate models, esp the robust trends in the CFSv2 of a brutal looking January...you have to wonder if these scientists or gov't officials have known that this Winter could be an epic one for the CONUS.  Something to ponder about as we move along...

 

Meantime, I think this is what @OKwx2k4was talking about that winter's fury is about to begin late month into Jan...

Jan 18th '21...Ice Box nation...

We have a winner brother. All the way.... 

Thats not 2000, that's 1911, 1917-18, or like 1978-79 stuff there. I'll be buried by then. Lol. 

I have 6 weeks of this stuff in my pattern dead in the jackpot heart of winter. I was scared to death to say it back then for the number of times I had been so wrong.

[Stormy]

28 minutes ago, Tom said:

Some LR thoughts and pattern progression on this 13th day of December...it's actually my cousins 50th B Day in Poland and my little nephew's B- Day (8 y.o. iirc).  Based on the data that continues to roll in as we get closer in time, the models are picking up on the NE PAC ridge to fire up heading into Week 2.  Using the 10mb LR tool of mine, it appears it will shine...I remember the Euro Weeklies and EPS had a major trough hugging W NAMER not long ago, but over the past few days it is flipping Bigly in this region which will cut off the PAC flow.  Instead, Arctic Air will begin to infiltrate the lower 48 and "Make America Wintry Again"....

You will see the ribbon of blue develop around Dec 1st that stretches from the Baja/So Cal region (LRC Signature) into the central CONUS, simultaneously, the light orange/reds develop near the Florida/SE Coast.  Boy, this is about as an ideal LR "look" that will correlate towards a neutral to slightly (-) PNA along with a neutral to (-) EPO producing a very favorable storm track coming out of the SW.  I'm predicting this pattern to set up around the Christmas Holiday through the New Year into Jan.  There are indications that this pattern may hold serve for a longer period and produce quite a ferocious Winter onslaught.

 

 

Is it possible that Severe Winter may take over???  I'm beginning to lean this way and some of the colder analogs may be at play.  Again, I look up in the Strat and the GEFS are suggesting another major SSW burst by months end that could be the dagger to disrupt the Polar Vortex.  The CFSv2 has been suggesting a Major Mid Warming event in early Jan which would make sense based on the model data coming in.  Let's put it this way, I'm becoming more convinced that we are heading in the right direction instead of the wrong way for winter wx enthusiasts.

00z GEFS...starting to "see" the Christmas special...SW Flow???

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb strat animation...looking pretty way up in the atmosphere...

I love big storms, but I’m hoping it’s nice for a few days around New Year’s Day as I have a wedding to attend in Tennessee, and don’t wanna miss a storm! 

[OKwx2k4]

Someone commented on my annual snowfall here and I found this map for the US. There was probably a time in the 60s-80s span there when the higher amounts over Arkansas terrain extended back west over the Oklahoma lower Ozarks.

Interesting times we are in.....

[OKwx2k4]

43 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I love big storms, but I’m hoping it’s nice for a few days around New Year’s Day as I have a wedding to attend in Tennessee, and don’t wanna miss a storm! 

I think you might actually be in one of the most awesome places in the US around that time.

[westMJim]

There looks to be around 4 to 7" of snow on the ground in northern lower Michigan. The reported snow fall at Alpena was 13.7" and at Houghton Lake 7". The rain did end as a period of snow here at my house and I had enough to cover the roofs of the houses and on cars. This AM there is still a little on the SUV that I park outside. It is cloudy and 31 here at this time.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Sparky said:

I love big storms, but I’m hoping it’s nice for a few days around New Year’s Day as I have a wedding to attend in Tennessee, and don’t wanna miss a storm! 

You may be taking the snow magnet with you down into TN during this period...I'm seeing some very cold air to be available during the opening days of January.

[Tom]

I just got back from a rather cold and scenic walk with a temp of 26F.  Even though there is no real snow OTG, we had a light dusting last night and a heavy Frost that covered the landscape which makes it look sorta festive out there.  The twinkle of the grass tips from the suns rays shows one side of natures beauty.

[bud2380]

There is a crispness in the air this morning that you only get after freshly fallen snow. How I’ve missed it. Temperature currently at 21.6°

[GDR]

Lock it in!

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, GDR said:

Lock it in!

Gives me an inch so it's probably right lol.

[Niko]

Attm, its 31F under cloudy skies and also a dusting of snow fell.

Btw: If there were no quarantine requirements, I would fly to NYC for this Nor'Easter next week. Feet of snow expected as of now potentially. Definitely worth it.

[Niko]

Here is the latest on the Nor'Easter:

[gimmesnow]

Snow guns are blazing on my hill, Monday is a great day to blow snow going into Tuesday morning. Still some snow on the ground, not bad. Finally, it's going to be 100% open. It's been half open so far this very late season.

[CentralNebWeather]

Next system looks to give my area and west and southwest of me a nice several inches Monday night into Tuesday. NWS Hastings saying over 3” from the Highway 183 area and west of there. That is one of the two major highways that come through my town, the other being Highway 6. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just measured in my yard, and have a solid 4-5” base after some compaction yesterday.