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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Just got home. I definitely missed out on a nice snow event from fri nite-sat. Still 2.5-3" on patio table after compaction and a little melting so I bet I had close to 4" from this storm. Couple inches still in the driveway so tomorrow ill get my first shoveling in for the season.

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Happy Monday!  With the Christmas Holiday quickly approaching, how welcomed would it be for nature to send us a Christmas Storm to track??  It is looking more likely that we will be tracking another southern stream storm for the Christmas Eve/Day period.  The EPS has been rock steady and so have been the GEFS sniffing out our next big ticket storm potential.  Teleconnections support a storm that will probably take a southerly route and not cut so much NW into the W GL's region.  I'm still trying to figure out if this will be one large storm or a 2-part wave.  Nonetheless, with a -AO/-NAO and +PNA during this period, it doesn't appear like there will be a strong SER present. 

 

I like the look of last nights 00z EPS MSLP...could this be our 2nd "share the wealth"???  Based on this track, it would appear to hit some of us who missed out from the last storm.  Lower Lakes/OHV cutter???

 

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Big uptick in the snow mean across the GL's through Christmas Day...

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.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are forecast, with localized higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday. The majority of snowfall accumulation is expected to occur between midnight tonight and midday Tuesday. * WIND...Wind through the overnight hours tonight will remain east to southeasterly, with speeds around 10 to 15 MPH. During the daytime hours on Tuesday, the wind will turn to the north, with speeds around 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Reductions in visibility in areas of heavier snow rates are likely. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

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9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are forecast, with localized higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday. The majority of snowfall accumulation is expected to occur between midnight tonight and midday Tuesday. * WIND...Wind through the overnight hours tonight will remain east to southeasterly, with speeds around 10 to 15 MPH. During the daytime hours on Tuesday, the wind will turn to the north, with speeds around 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Reductions in visibility in areas of heavier snow rates are likely. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

Snow-on-Snow...always nice to experience without having to deal with any melting in between.  Good luck!

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The official total seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids remains at 0.4" that is now 14.8" below average as of this date. Most of this week looks to be dry and thus snowless.  There was a trace of snow fall here at my house overnight. At the current time it is cloudy and 29 here.

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Snow-on-Snow...always nice to experience without having to deal with any melting in between.  Good luck!

Correct.  We rarely get snow on snow.  Usually there is time between with plenty of melting.  Not much melting since the Friday night/Saturday morning storm.  Right now we are at 7 degrees with a wind chill of -2 and the fog and clouds have rolled back in.  NWS Hastings thinks temps will struggle today as the clouds thicken and the storm arrives.  The one thing missing will be the typical wind we receive with virtually every storm.  

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are forecast, with localized higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday. The majority of snowfall accumulation is expected to occur between midnight tonight and midday Tuesday. * WIND...Wind through the overnight hours tonight will remain east to southeasterly, with speeds around 10 to 15 MPH. During the daytime hours on Tuesday, the wind will turn to the north, with speeds around 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Reductions in visibility in areas of heavier snow rates are likely. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

Looks like you've broke the ice. Here's to hoping the snows keep coming and put a dent in your drought.

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8 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Take a shot every time you see the words "minimal impact" in FGF's AFD this morning.

Screw this endless pattern lol

I have the word "quiet" "dry" and "near normal temps" in GRR AFD for the last 2 weeks outside of Saturdays rain storm.  

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Cloudy and seasonably cold attm w temps at 30F. I think I saw a flurry fly by my office window just now. Rest of the week remains dry and slightly BN. By the weekend, temps climb into the low 40s w the possibility of some wet weather.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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BRUTAL! Another system to miss KC., The system is weird, pulses us west of here, dies when it gets to KC, and then ramps up again east of here. WHAT? HOW?? DANG IT!!

 

The latest GFS, AWFUL! Zero storms and a lot of warm days in there. I'm beginning to wonder if KC will see any snow this month. 

The folks that get the snow.....again, have fun! Looks like maybe 2-4 inches from Nebraska to Oklahoma. 

BTW, cold morning here in KC, I dropped to 17 at my house. First low in the teens this winter season. It does feel like Dec. outside. 

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

BRUTAL! Another system to miss KC., The system is weird, pulses us west of here, dies when it gets to KC, and then ramps up again east of here. WHAT? HOW?? DANG IT!!

It's amazing, even comical, all of the creative ways snowstorms have bypassed our area over a long number of years now. You'd think once in awhile we'd get hammered by just dumb luck, but nope. It's mind numbing.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Long range pattern isn't looking promising.  No snow of any concern showing up on the GFS/Canadian or Euro in the next 10 days. 

Euro has me pushing 50 by next Monday.   Sad. Cold will be locked up in Canada for quite some time still with no sign of intruding into the Lower 48.  

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1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

It's amazing, even comical, all of the creative ways snowstorms have bypassed our area over a long number of years now. You'd think once in awhile we'd get hammered by just dumb luck, but nope. It's mind numbing.

I recently researched back to December 2013 and found Topeka has only had three snowfalls of 4 inches or greater during the past seven years! We rarely get any big hits here any more...sad. 🙁

  1. Feb 4, 2014: 13.0"
  2. Nov 25, 2018: 6.0"
  3. Dec 15/16, 2019: 4.5"

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Anyone traveling to NYC Wed-Th time frame or nearby cities on the EC? Here is what you will encounter: Looks like 18-24"+ on the way for the "Big Apple."

  • Wednesday
     

    Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 4pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

    Snow
    Likely and
    Breezy

    High: 35 °F

  • Wednesday
    Night

    Wednesday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times.  Low around 27. Windy.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

    Heavy Snow
    and Windy

    Low: 27 °F

  • Thursday
     

    Thursday: Snow likely before 10am, then a chance of snow showers between 10am and 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Heavy Snow
    and Windy

    High: 33 °F

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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55 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

-8f here this morning. Car said -10. Not that remarkable vs averages, but the sunshine is glorious. I swear it's seems like it's been weeks since I had seen the sun fully

Yeah I noticed it was way colder up by the Lake of the Woods. Enjoy the sun! Took a while to come out down here this morning.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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18 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Comparing to 2009-10

Low point of sunspot activity -- Check

La Nina -- Check

Negative AO- Check

So far, very different winters.  I've never been a big believer in analogs.  No matter how many similarities you can find, there are always differences that could matter just as much.  And as much as I enjoy reading long-term prognosticating, I've given up believing that there is any real value to it.  Based on trends and forecasts, KC may very well make it through December without a single snow flake.  That's pretty bad, even for KC.

2009-10 was el nino.

But I do agree that analog years don't seem to be very useful predictors.   The only exception I would say is strong el nino years like 97-98, and 2015-16.

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Its really cool not having snowfall of any appreciable size to measure or anything and then bam....

I say that to express this, there have been many years in which I have watched the sun cut all the snow down to nothing in a day due to its intensity alone. On dark colored radiating objects, especially given that the snow fell at high liquid ratios, its astounding that the snow is not gone today and still stands at around 2-3 in on those surfaces. My point is, the sun's sleepy and has been for what seems like forever in "solar time".

I may beat my all-time length of snowcover record this winter in Jan-Feb if this happens like I see it to play out.

Has anyone else noticed their snow hanging around in more adverse conditions than before this season?

Odd question but just thinking out loud, I suppose.

Edited by OKwx2k4
Edited to fix part of post about snowcover record.
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2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Well, ECMWF has a storm Christmas Day.  Unfortunately it's fairly warm and  mostly a rainer.  But could produce some cold behind it temporarily.  That's about all we got at this point.  

How do we get this to become colder like what is plausible that can happen? Lot of EPS members showing snow so the potential is obviously there. 

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While there is no snow here in the metro Grand Rapids area you do not have to go too far north before there is snow. We went to Ludington today and even before you leave Kent County there is snow on the ground. Along US 10 there is about 3 to 5" of snow on the ground. And about 3" in Ludington. At this time it is a rather cold (for this winter so far) 24 here.

 

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