December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[tStacsh]

37 minutes ago, Madtown said:

when is this? no snow from now till next tues in the forecast?

Always a week away.  Outside of 14-15 winter doesn’t start until January.  Even then it’s just slightly annoyingly cold until the May heatwaves.   

[jaster220]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

Possible mood flakes for IN/S MI posters mid-week while the east coast gets clobbered!  I'm sure JB is salivating at what the Euro is showing.

Had a squall roll thru this late morning and leave a couple tenths, then we had some MF+ as I headed west towards work. You were right when you said the windchill had a bite to it. I had to grab a tank-up in an unsheltered place and the WC was around 19F. That truly felt cold with all the mild and calm we've seen.

[Tom]

Rise N Shine...it's the coldest morning of this cold season as temps have dipped into the upper 10's (19F).  Light/Mod snows are falling in CO and into C NE this morning...creeping closer to @CentralNebWeather.  Boy, what a season OK is having so far this year.  I think this is the states 3rd Winter Storm Warning of the season.  The LRC pattern that set up this Fall show cased an active southern stream and will continue to cycle this season.  I could see some major hits coming in Jan/Feb/Mar for our southern members.  Hang in their KC and MO folks, you guys are still in the game.

While combing through the overnight data, I'm seeing the modeling picking up on more blocking as we get closer to the Christmas holiday week.  The 00z EPS has turned colder for the Christmas Eve/Day period and also advertising more ensemble members of a large scale storm targeting the MW/GL's region followed by a strong signal for LES to hit the lake belt regions on Christmas Day.

 

Christmas Eve/Day...

 

 

The GEFS are also starting to show more members of a wound up storm around the GL's region for the holiday period...needless to say, it's beginning to look a lot like...a White Christmas????

 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Rise N Shine...it's the coldest morning of this cold season as temps have dipped into the upper 10's (19F).  Light/Mod snows are falling in CO and into C NE this morning...creeping closer to @CentralNebWeather.  Boy, what a season OK is having so far this year.  I think this is the states 3rd Winter Storm Warning of the season.  The LRC pattern that set up this Fall show cased an active southern stream and will continue to cycle this season.  I could see some major hits coming in Jan/Feb/Mar for our southern members.  Hang in their KC and MO folks, you guys are still in the game.

While combing through the overnight data, I'm seeing the modeling picking up on more blocking as we get closer to the Christmas holiday week.  The 00z EPS has turned colder for the Christmas Eve/Day period and also advertising more ensemble members of a large scale storm targeting the MW/GL's region followed by a strong signal for LES to hit the lake belt regions on Christmas Day.

 

Christmas Eve/Day...

 

 

The GEFS are also starting to show more members of a wound up storm around the GL's region for the holiday period...needless to say, it's beginning to look a lot like...a White Christmas????

 

This will be a good test for the GFS-Para, it goes bigly Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

[Grizzcoat]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Rise N Shine...it's the coldest morning of this cold season as temps have dipped into the upper 10's (19F).  Light/Mod snows are falling in CO and into C NE this morning...creeping closer to @CentralNebWeather.  Boy, what a season OK is having so far this year.  I think this is the states 3rd Winter Storm Warning of the season.  The LRC pattern that set up this Fall show cased an active southern stream and will continue to cycle this season.  I could see some major hits coming in Jan/Feb/Mar for our southern members.  Hang in their KC and MO folks, you guys are still in the game.

While combing through the overnight data, I'm seeing the modeling picking up on more blocking as we get closer to the Christmas holiday week.  The 00z EPS has turned colder for the Christmas Eve/Day period and also advertising more ensemble members of a large scale storm targeting the MW/GL's region followed by a strong signal for LES to hit the lake belt regions on Christmas Day.

 

Christmas Eve/Day...

 

 

The GEFS are also starting to show more members of a wound up storm around the GL's region for the holiday period...needless to say, it's beginning to look a lot like...a White Christmas????

 

Not happening for 90% of posters. Just my .02.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Rise N Shine...it's the coldest morning of this cold season as temps have dipped into the upper 10's (19F).  Light/Mod snows are falling in CO and into C NE this morning...creeping closer to @CentralNebWeather.  Boy, what a season OK is having so far this year.  I think this is the states 3rd Winter Storm Warning of the season.  The LRC pattern that set up this Fall show cased an active southern stream and will continue to cycle this season.  I could see some major hits coming in Jan/Feb/Mar for our southern members.  Hang in their KC and MO folks, you guys are still in the game.

While combing through the overnight data, I'm seeing the modeling picking up on more blocking as we get closer to the Christmas holiday week.  The 00z EPS has turned colder for the Christmas Eve/Day period and also advertising more ensemble members of a large scale storm targeting the MW/GL's region followed by a strong signal for LES to hit the lake belt regions on Christmas Day.

 

Christmas Eve/Day...

 

 

The GEFS are also starting to show more members of a wound up storm around the GL's region for the holiday period...needless to say, it's beginning to look a lot like...a White Christmas????

 

@TomWe have received about 1-2" so far.  3-3 1/2" just to my west.  No wind with it at all and basically falling straight down.  I hope to get about 3".  Seems like the heaviest snow has shifted some to the west with the models and radar.  I'll take what I can get.  

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

@TomWe have received about 1-2" so far.  3-3 1/2" just to my west.  No wind with it at all and basically falling straight down.  I hope to get about 3".  Seems like the heaviest snow has shifted some to the west with the models and radar.  I'll take what I can get.  

Let it Snow! 

[westMJim]

It looks like the official overnight low at Grand Rapids was 18 and that is the coldest low since March 7th The overnight low here at my house was 17 and the current temperature here is 22. Grand Rapids is still waiting of its first official 1’ of snow fall. If Grand Rapids has a green Christmas this year that would be the 3rd one in a row and in the recorded history of Grand Rapids that would be the first time that would have happened.

[Niko]

Looks like SEMI could be in for a little snow on Wednesday.......

[Niko]

Attm, 19F w partly cloudy skies.

[bud2380]

Euro between now and Christmas Eve.  Get ready for yet another brown Christmas.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like almost every school district west of me is having late starts this morning, even the 2 smaller districts in my county to my west.  It takes a lot for our supt. to call late starts or to cancel school.  

[Grizzcoat]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Rise N Shine...it's the coldest morning of this cold season as temps have dipped into the upper 10's (19F).  Light/Mod snows are falling in CO and into C NE this morning...creeping closer to @CentralNebWeather.  Boy, what a season OK is having so far this year.  I think this is the states 3rd Winter Storm Warning of the season.  The LRC pattern that set up this Fall show cased an active southern stream and will continue to cycle this season.  I could see some major hits coming in Jan/Feb/Mar for our southern members.  Hang in their KC and MO folks, you guys are still in the game.

While combing through the overnight data, I'm seeing the modeling picking up on more blocking as we get closer to the Christmas holiday week.  The 00z EPS has turned colder for the Christmas Eve/Day period and also advertising more ensemble members of a large scale storm targeting the MW/GL's region followed by a strong signal for LES to hit the lake belt regions on Christmas Day.

 

Christmas Eve/Day...

 

 

The GEFS are also starting to show more members of a wound up storm around the GL's region for the holiday period...needless to say, it's beginning to look a lot like...a White Christmas????

 

IS this what your talking off-- I'am reminded by a song from the Monores in the 80's---  

 

[Grizzcoat]

You know I told you once tonight
That you could always speak your mind
You work so hard to say what's right
I watch you do it all the time

 

Do you think I'm blind to what you do?
Do you think I really care for you?
Or is it just another game that you and I pretend to play?

 

 

Tell me, am I getting in too deep?
Every night I'm talking in my sleep
Lately I am so confused
I really don't know what to do

 

ALL in jest of course - I respect Tom's thoughts and his time and passion he puts into this.  I just disagree. Maybe by Jan 15th.

[Grizzcoat]

BTW- for those old enough- this song was GOLDEN in the mid 80's in the Midwest. From San Diego, but lead singer was MPLS.

[Tony]

Unfortunately not too much happening for Christmas week around theses parts of the country as of now and looking more and more that December will end up as a dud for any major systems rolling through. Need a Christmas miracle at this point to try to get some mood flakes flying for the holidays.

[BMT]

I could really go for a clipper train right about now.  

[Tony]

Latest NAM does show some love being thrown back as far as Illinois wrt the big EC storm but of course it is the Nam.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Latest NAM does show some love being thrown back as far as Illinois wrt the big EC storm but of course it is the Nam.

12z NAM says...Mood Flakes coming your way!!

 

[Tony]

Those EC storms are always a good setup for LES on this side of the lake so Tom you might get a dusting out of this...nice photo op if nothing else.

[Tom]

Just now, Tony said:

Those EC storms are always a good setup for LES on this side of the lake so Tom you might get a dusting out of this...nice photo op if nothing else.

Your right on...I was hoping for the models to take the ULL a bit farther north and pull some more moisture up this way but it looks like it will primarily be of the lake variety except for those in IN and SE MI.  I'll take whatever I can get at this point.  Some nice on and off LES for a day or so would be ideal.

[Niko]

In regards to the EC monster, one of the latest models have trended further north and a bit closer to the coastline. I.e., the 12z RGEM shows that. This could benefit SEMI a little.

 

Btw: Albany, NY went from literally nothing to 30” lol.

Note: Suicide watches will be posted if this changes.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro actually brings a pretty substantial storm followed by a brief polar plunge to my area in the days leading up to Christmas, with afternoon temps in the -10s. Of course, it'd be when I'm gone... lol.

[FV-Mike]

Tom Skilling posted this over the weekend. Shows the lack of snow for the Chi area in December over the last 10 years. Also of note is how the total seasonal snowfall ended. 

 

 

[james1976]

My snowcover will be gone by the weekend. Turning brown just in time for Christmas lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yuck!

[Stacsh]

15 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Tom Skilling posted this over the weekend. Shows the lack of snow for the Chi area in December over the last 10 years. Also of note is how the total seasonal snowfall ended. 

 

 

Sounds about right.  The pattern has been for a lag in the winter season by a month or so.  and extends into late March to mid-April.  The much above normal oceans take longer to cool down in the N. Hemisphere.  Also the Arctic region is so much AN.  

[jaster220]

Waiting for my ASOS to report the 6 hr Min/Max as to whether our low here was 13F or 14F? Coldest by a good 4 or 5F on the season. Merry ice-making temps. That little bump N on tomorrow's wave would be nice if it's legit. Could go for a little ground whitening after a couple days of chilling.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Forgot to mention this, but yesterday's low was 7.2 degrees. Our coldest morning since February 20th.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Your right on...I was hoping for the models to take the ULL a bit farther north and pull some more moisture up this way but it looks like it will primarily be of the lake variety except for those in IN and SE MI.  I'll take whatever I can get at this point.  Some nice on and off LES for a day or so would be ideal.

I wouldn't mind getting clipped here. I see my POPs were doubled to 40% in my grid.

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 316 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

-- Light snow mainly southeast of Grand Rapids Wednesday --

Overall short to medium range guidance trends now suggest that
light snow will most likely clip our southeast fcst area Wednesday.
This will be the far northwesternmost periphery of the pcpn shield
tied to the strong mid Atlantic low pressure system.

Around an inch of snow is now fcst over our extreme se fcst
area Wednesday near KJXN. Around a half an inch of snow is fcst a
little further west to northwest from around KAZO to KLAN. A few
flurries or very light snow showers may make it as far nw as
KGRR while dry wx is still expected north of KGRR.

[Hawkeye]

GFS has thrown in a clipperish system next week.

But the GDPS for the same period.

[Tom]

Both GFS/GGEM starting to hone in on an Arctic blast for Christmas...all we need now is to see the models latch onto a winter storm for the holiday....come on baby!

[Niko]

Attm, its a crisp, chilly day w temps at 27F under partly cloudy skies.

[Tom]

Interesting LES signal off the 12z UKIE today...S MI crew still in the game for some measurable snow...

 

[Minny_Weather]

Got down to 0°F here yesterday morning. That's a far cry from the record value of -32, and it's actually pretty close to normal.

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS has thrown in a clipperish system next week.

But the GDPS for the same period.

Hey, I'll take false optimism over no optimism.   

[westMJim]

The total snow fall at Grand Rapids so far this winter season is just 0.4" going back to 1900 there has only been one year that has gone this late without Grand Rapids having had at least 1" of total snow fall and the winter season was 1998/99. Of course that winter season January had a record snow fall of 46.8" but that and March with 14.2" that winters snow season.

[bud2380]

Man, Central PA is the place to be right now.

 

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Man, Central PA is the place to be right now.

 

My buddy is gonna get crushed...I’ll ask him to take some vids and send them to me.

[Stacsh]

From the latest models runs, looks like a brief cold shot around Christmas and then a quick sustained warm up.