December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

Euro shows a very strong clipper running across the US/Canada border on day 7 or so followed by some very cold air behind it.  

[snowstorm83]

Another day with the temp well under forecast. Currently 21 and cloudy. Theres been a few stray flurries, but it looks like the main show kind of hit a wall at the Lancaster/Seward county lines. 

[james1976]

19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro shows a very strong clipper running across the US/Canada border on day 7 or so followed by some very cold air behind it.  

GFS and Canadian are showing this system as well just different placement between the models.

[bud2380]

23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

GFS and Canadian are showing this system as well just different placement between the models.

It's the only thing in the extended that has any potential, so hopefully it materializes into something.  

[snowstorm83]

I'll be in Memphis for the holidays with <5% White Christmas chances, but wish for snow OTG for all. Memphis can get downright bitter in those lakes focused cold snaps (-10 wind chills on 1/6/14, schools closed) so maybe it'll feel like Christmas at least. Disclaimer: Just an example and not saying that this is Jan 2014 lol 

[Niko]

Per NOAA

ECMWF has shown better run-to-run consistency with snowfall amounts
in the 0.5-1.5 inch range through 12Z Thursday while the GFS
gradually trends snow totals higher (2.0-2.5 inch range) as far
north of M-59. Hedged mainly between 0.5 and 1.0 inch based on
decent correlation between ensemble suites and reduced mean snow
ratio (below 10:1) during the next 24 hours. Forecast soundings
depict some inclinations of favorable deep column saturation (sfc-
500 mb) during the late afternoon hours with a deeper intersection
of the DGZ. This would enhance any narrow/short-lived FGEN bands
pushing snowfall rates near 0.25 in/hr, briefly. Isolated totals of
1.5-2.0 inches will be possible, mainly across Lenawee and western
Monroe counties.

I'll accept this. 

[Stacsh]

Just now, Niko said:

Per NOAA

ECMWF has shown better run-to-run consistency with snowfall amounts
in the 0.5-1.5 inch range through 12Z Thursday while the GFS
gradually trends snow totals higher (2.0-2.5 inch range) as far
north of M-59. Hedged mainly between 0.5 and 1.0 inch based on
decent correlation between ensemble suites and reduced mean snow
ratio (below 10:1) during the next 24 hours. Forecast soundings
depict some inclinations of favorable deep column saturation (sfc-
500 mb) during the late afternoon hours with a deeper intersection
of the DGZ. This would enhance any narrow/short-lived FGEN bands
pushing snowfall rates near 0.25 in/hr, briefly. Isolated totals of
1.5-2.0 inches will be possible, mainly across Lenawee and western
Monroe counties.

I'll accept this. 

at this point I'd take a trace. 

[Niko]

Get ready "Big Apple"

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
340 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-176>178-161200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
Hudson-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
340 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York,
  including New York City and northwestern Long Island.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
  winds and heavy wet snow could bring down scattered to numerous
  tree branches.

[Niko]

1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

at this point I'd take a trace. 

Me too!

[Niko]

Attm, its 27F under mostly cloudy skies. My highs remained in the 20s. Coldest since last March of this year. Lows dipping into the teens again tanite w increasing clouds towards dawn.

[james1976]

GFS way north now with the clipper next week.

On a different note it looks like I may get a quick shot of snow sat morning but prolly less than an inch.

[Bruce Stern]

LOVING the start to this winter! Was on my BOAT last week ... in Michigan ... in December! You’d never know we haven’t even had an inch of snow yet looking at the wishcasting going on for 20 pages in this thread LOL ... it’s gonna’ “flip” next week though (fart noises). You’d think seeing the same people be wrong over and over and over again would get tiring and less funny to me — but no, here I am cracking up almost to the point of tears. 

My wife wants a white Christmas — no thanks. If I want to get her hopes up, however, I’ll give her this link so she can see  wishcasting with cherry-picked models that never turn out. 

Happy Holidays to you all!

 

[Minny_Weather]

6 minutes ago, RodneyMunch said:

My wife wants a white Christmas

What wife?

[snowstorm83]

6 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

What wife?

Wait I didn't realize that some reactions actually decrease someone's rep. I feel bad now lol. 

[Minny_Weather]

2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Wait I didn't realize that some reactions actually decrease someone's rep. I feel bad now lol. 

I found that out early on. It's only the troll and downvote ones that decrease it, I'm pretty sure.

[Niko]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/12/15/australia-beach-foam-dog-lost-jr-orig-vpx.cnn

[Clinton]

I have a some light snow falling.  Nothing to get overly excited about but nice to see some flakes again.

[Beltrami Island]

I got a surprise couple inches of the fluffiest snow I have ever seen. What is the highest ratio snow possible? Because that's what I think I got today.

[Clinton]

0z GFS getting closer to figuring out Christmas time.

[james1976]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS getting closer to figuring out Christmas time.

Dang it now I'm gonna have to go look at the run lol

[james1976]

My snowcover looks like it will hold on most of the week. There's been more stratus than originally forecasted and that's kept temps down a bit. We'll have to see how late week goes but so far I've held on to most of the snow from Fri nite. Definitely makes it feel more like the holidays. 

[Niko]

Wouldnt this be nice?! Whoa!

[Grizzcoat]

^^ same here. Still officially 5" on the ground at KDSM and the DMX has really busted lately with MAX temps--But the snowpack doesn't have that great of extent and a good burst of WAA will likely overwhelm it. But it's better than nothing.

[jaster220]

31 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wouldnt this be nice?! Whoa!

Oh no. Not this again. Remember the last time models showed a 970s SLP in that region? Yeah, so how'd that turn out for us? Fool me once..

[jaster220]

Woot! Woot! Woot!

A positive snow development hot off the press. We be revived friends..

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

There has been a general increase in the expected snowfall for Wed
into Wed Eve from the models over the past couple of runs. We have
bumped up the qpf and snow amounts slightly for the Jackson to
Lansing to Battle Creek area. Some minor impacts look
possible...especially for the evening commute. HWO has been
updated.

AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

The trend is for some aviation impacts to occur further north with
time on Wednesday. We have introduced IFR to the KLAN TAF site in
addition to keeping the IFR forecast going for KJXN...KAZO and
KBTL. We will need to monitor KGRR as well. The main window for
this snow to move in and cause the impacts is from 16z Wed to 02z Thur.
There will likely be MVFR conditions at the onset and departure
of the area of snow. An overall easterly flow can be expected
through the period.

[jaster220]

0z NAM's the most generous with a full-on 2" here, while others are more in the 1" range. Still, snow beggars-r-us so this will be more than welcomed at the yuletide season.

[jaster220]

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/12/we-have-the-ingredients-for-a-1978-style-blizzard-this-winter.html

 

(Just 4 giggles) Tonight's GFS run looks like a mini version of Jan '78

[Tom]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/12/we-have-the-ingredients-for-a-1978-style-blizzard-this-winter.html

 

(Just 4 giggles) Tonight's GFS run looks like a mini version of Jan '78

I took a look at all the GEFS/EPS members and there is still a lot of spread.  I'd say about 50% of them show some sort of big storm in and around the GL's during the holiday.  This is going to be one of those very difficult situations where we will have to see if the models do indeed show a stronger 1st lead wave or secondary wave that could eventually form along the CF boundary which happened back during the 1st LRC cycle.  Iirc, during the last cycle, it was a last minute shift in the models and focused more on the southern stream energy.  I still think there is a good chance those of us on the east side of the Sub can score some snow for Christmas. 

That 00z GFS run was a beauty and looks similar to some of these ensemble members below...good thing is, we have plenty of time to see how this works out.  Keeping hope alive for a White Christmas...

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

1978 or 1917-18. They were great calls. Guess someone else saw the same thing. Nearly 2 months of consecutive snowcover in 1978 was a pretty big deal.

I think jaster could overcome his disappointment pretty quickly. Lol

[Madtown]

little hope, but its been a little hope since Nov. 29th. for a pattern change. Was the week of the 5th, then 10th/11th time frame. Then 16th. Then right before Christmas to well hopefully Christmas and the week between New Years. It'd be nice to get stuck in a pattern that delivered the goods for a change. You know after 4 weeks of storms every 3 days and everyone is just tired of snow. 

[Grizzcoat]

12 hours ago, RodneyMunch said:

LOVING the start to this winter! Was on my BOAT last week ... in Michigan ... in December! You’d never know we haven’t even had an inch of snow yet looking at the wishcasting going on for 20 pages in this thread LOL ... it’s gonna’ “flip” next week though (fart noises). You’d think seeing the same people be wrong over and over and over again would get tiring and less funny to me — but no, here I am cracking up almost to the point of tears. 

My wife wants a white Christmas — no thanks. If I want to get her hopes up, however, I’ll give her this link so she can see  wishcasting with cherry-picked models that never turn out. 

Happy Holidays to you all!

 

Hey- Raunchy Munch- what's your twenty? ---

[bud2380]

This would never happen in Iowa.  It would be so amazing to see, but not a possibility here.  2-4" per hour rates.  Incredible.  If there was any way I could drive to central PA right now, I would.

 

[Sciascia]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/12/we-have-the-ingredients-for-a-1978-style-blizzard-this-winter.html

 

(Just 4 giggles) Tonight's GFS run looks like a mini version of Jan '78

I mean, along with being very welcome, this would also force people to be smart & stay home.

[Niko]

Attm, light snowshowers have developed w a temp of 26F. Couple of inches of snow expected today into tomorrow. The real stuff as we all know is out east on the EC.

[Niko]

Per NOAA update in forecast:

Summary of changes to the forecast are...1. Raised PoPs for much of
the cwa with categorical for areas along and south of I 69. 2. Based
on higher confidence in saturation and trend for higher QPF in
models did increase snowfall amounts today through 3Z this evening
of around 1-2 inches for Metro Detroit. 3. Increased PoPs for
Thursday. 4. Event snowfall totals of 2 to 3 inches will be possible
Today-00Z Friday.

[bud2380]

I see you NAM...

 

[whatitdo]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

0z NAM's the most generous with a full-on 2" here, while others are more in the 1" range. Still, snow beggars-r-us so this will be more than welcomed at the yuletide season.

Not getting anything here 

[bud2380]

GFS also has the extremely weak system Saturday AM.  We can only hope that it strengthens enough in future runs to give an inch or two.  That would be a best case scenario I think.  I'm not concerned at all that the GFS shows rain here, it can't handle p-types or thermals at all.  

 

[jaster220]

23 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Not getting anything here 

I'm soooo on the edge, but minuscule flake-lets have begun to fall.

[james1976]

Here it comes!