December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

GFS keeps sinking further south with the system on the 23rd.  THis will likely be the system that brings many of us our only shot at a White Christmas.  I'm assuming the snow cover we have now will melt before the 23rd as temps show rising above freezing by Friday.  Something to watch anyways. 

 

[bud2380]

Canadian for Saturday.  

 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I took a look at all the GEFS/EPS members and there is still a lot of spread.  I'd say about 50% of them show some sort of big storm in and around the GL's during the holiday.  This is going to be one of those very difficult situations where we will have to see if the models do indeed show a stronger 1st lead wave or secondary wave that could eventually form along the CF boundary which happened back during the 1st LRC cycle.  Iirc, during the last cycle, it was a last minute shift in the models and focused more on the southern stream energy.  I still think there is a good chance those of us on the east side of the Sub can score some snow for Christmas. 

That 00z GFS run was a beauty and looks similar to some of these ensemble members below...good thing is, we have plenty of time to see how this works out.  Keeping hope alive for a White Christmas...

 

 

Like all our events (vs EC) it'll be threading of needles if it happens. That GFS run is par for the course of it showing the "maximized outcome" around 10 days out. Then prolly the Euro Op will take the baton and show days of "maximized outcomes" only to get our excitement level up then come down to reality about 3 days out. I've noticed this as the model trends this season. Be nice if we could see an improvement in that where the storm actually is what d5 models are advertising. Any snow at Christmas will be welcomed ofc, and my first year here in Marshall actually (2002) we had a surprise 6-8" storm on the 24th. That time JB nailed it as the MET world concensus was a SOHV event and he stuck to his guns that it would go further north and it sure did. Idk if he was better back then, or just luckier? Perhaps he focused more seriously on actual forecasting prior to taking up the torch on climate debate.

[whatitdo]

10 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Here it comes!

@jaster220 how likely is this look to result in lake effect? 

[james1976]

I wish that Saturday system would phase sooner. DMX mentioned that possibility. 

[james1976]

Whoever gets snow from the 23rd system should end up with a white Christmas cuz the temps behind that look quite brutal.

[whatitdo]

22 hours ago, westMJim said:

The total snow fall at Grand Rapids so far this winter season is just 0.4" going back to 1900 there has only been one year that has gone this late without Grand Rapids having had at least 1" of total snow fall and the winter season was 1998/99. Of course that winter season January had a record snow fall of 46.8" but that and March with 14.2" that winters snow season.

This is pretty interesting stuff, do you mind sharing where you got this info from? Thanks

[Niko]

Getting light snow currently w temp at 29F.

[Stacsh]

30 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 how likely is this look to result in lake effect? 

too early to tell.  There will likely be some LES/LEHS, but much too far out.  Depends on moisture, Wind direction/speed. etc...Euro is much warmer than this map.  I wouldn't buy it the way the winter is going.  There will likely be some colder air though.  

[Niko]

Christmas Day looks frigid as of now. Lets see if we can get a storm cranking at the same time.

[Hawkeye]

On the op GFS, at least, other than the brief cold shot around Christmas, the pattern on New Years Day looks like a continuation of what we've been seeing.

[OmahaSnowFan]

21 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

On the op GFS, at least, other than the brief cold shot around Christmas, the pattern on New Years Day looks like a continuation of what we've been seeing.

Yep, the cold shot lasts about 2-3 days and then it shows 40s and 50s right away after that

[Niko]

Moderate snow now and ground is getting covered. Deep layer of cold air allowing for snow to stick everywhere. Temp is 29F.

Tis the Season Ya'll.

Btw: Make sure you check your Christmas stocking for a lagniappe inside. Santa is already starting to fill em up.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Temperature anomalies on the 12Z GFS

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

This is pretty interesting stuff, do you mind sharing where you got this info from? Thanks

That information is from the NWS office.

[bud2380]

27 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Temperature anomalies on the 12Z GFS

Soooo....warm, warm, warm, warm, warm warm, warm, warm, cold. cold, warm, warm, warm, warm, warm, warm....

[whatitdo]

36 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That information is from the NWS office.

you have a link by any chance? I'm on https://www.weather.gov/grr/ just don't know where to navigate from there

[Stacsh]

52 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Soooo....warm, warm, warm, warm, warm warm, warm, warm, cold. cold, warm, warm, warm, warm, warm, warm....

and the GFS has a cold 2m temperature bias.  So it's not looking pretty outside of 2 day cold snap with possibly a weak storm or 2.  The beat continues.  

[Stacsh]

"Cold" front coming through Saturday may bring some rain showers, possibly mixed precip.  Classic December Cold Front....

 

[Niko]

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1228 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-162000-
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
1228 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...

WEATHER...

 * Light snow will continue through the afternoon hours
   particularly south of the I-69 corridor. The snow may briefly
   become moderate at times across the Detroit metro area south
   towards the Ohio border. Accumulations are possible, 
   with localized amounts up to one inch or so.

 * East winds will range around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

 * Air temperatures will hover around 32 degrees.

IMPACTS...

 * Accumulating snow may lead to slippery roads particularly on
   bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.

 * Falling snow will cause reductions of visibility to less than
   one mile at times. There may be rapid fluctuations of
   visibility.

[Niko]

Attm, snowing w temp at 28F.

[bud2380]

Euro with a big shift south with the pre-Christmas storm and pretty strong too.

 

[Tom]

Chasing the "White Christmas Miracle"...

[chances14]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Like all our events (vs EC) it'll be threading of needles if it happens. That GFS run is par for the course of it showing the "maximized outcome" around 10 days out. Then prolly the Euro Op will take the baton and show days of "maximized outcomes" only to get our excitement level up then come down to reality about 3 days out. I've noticed this as the model trends this season. Be nice if we could see an improvement in that where the storm actually is what d5 models are advertising. Any snow at Christmas will be welcomed ofc, and my first year here in Marshall actually (2002) we had a surprise 6-8" storm on the 24th. That time JB nailed it as the MET world concensus was a SOHV event and he stuck to his guns that it would go further north and it sure did. Idk if he was better back then, or just luckier? Perhaps he focused more seriously on actual forecasting prior to taking up the torch on climate debate.

a christmas snowstorm in mby will always bump up my winter grade to at least a C, regardless of how crappy the rest of the winter is

[Stacsh]

GRR very confident a week out on next week's pattern/storm(s?) evolution:   

Amazing they know the track of a the low 7 days out!!

 

- Turning sharply colder mid-week

Upper trough across central Canada amplifies on Wednesday with
arctic front plunging south. Cyclogensis along the front is
expected and this low will track across southern Lower Michigan
with what looks like the potential for a solid stripe of
measurable snow associated with strong low and mid level
frontogenesis. This bears watching as it could be heavy enough to
impact travel on Wednesday. The thermal packing is impressive with
most if not all of the precip expected to be on the north side of
the sfc low where it should be cold enough for p-type to be snow.

There is good model consensus and ensemble support for sharply
colder air arriving with the passage of this low. Most the
operational runs of the 12Z model cycle have 850 mb temps of
minus 20C headed our way for the end of the week.

 

[bud2380]

GFS maintains a nice looking clipper in a week.  Obviously I wish it was further south, but this would certainly make some members of our forum very happy and be a White Christmas just in time for many.

 

[Niko]

41 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

GRR very confident a week out on next week's pattern/storm(s?) evolution:   

Amazing they know the track of a the low 7 days out!!

 

- Turning sharply colder mid-week

Upper trough across central Canada amplifies on Wednesday with
arctic front plunging south. Cyclogensis along the front is
expected and this low will track across southern Lower Michigan
with what looks like the potential for a solid stripe of
measurable snow associated with strong low and mid level
frontogenesis. This bears watching as it could be heavy enough to
impact travel on Wednesday. The thermal packing is impressive with
most if not all of the precip expected to be on the north side of
the sfc low where it should be cold enough for p-type to be snow.

There is good model consensus and ensemble support for sharply
colder air arriving with the passage of this low. Most the
operational runs of the 12Z model cycle have 850 mb temps of
minus 20C headed our way for the end of the week.

 

Yep..it was mentioned by my local forecaster as well. Have to admit, way too soon to be this confident about a forecast 7 days out. We will see what happens.

[snowstorm83]

It's been a slow melt since Friday night, around 2" left in most spots. Looks like a sure bet to get back above freezing tomorrow and left with just piles by Friday. Hopefully the dried out soil is making the most of it. It's looking increasingly likely that the last measurable precip of 2020 for most Nebraskans has already happened. 

[CentralNebWeather]

18 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

It's been a slow melt since Friday night, around 2" left in most spots. Looks like a sure bet to get back above freezing tomorrow and left with just piles by Friday. Hopefully the dried out soil is making the most of it. It's looking increasingly likely that the last measurable precip of 2020 for most Nebraskans has already happened. 

We have quite a bit more than you, but warm weather is going to return and the melting will commence. Very little chance of any moisture in the extended means we can only hope to keep the piles and snow on the north side of houses for Christmas.  Had a depth of 6-7” last night from the combined two snow events. I’ll enjoy it while it lasts. 

[Niko]

I am seeing vid from friends and family members being sent to me from Times Square and it is ripping there. NYC is all covered in snow and accumulating fast. Temp there is at 27F.

Meanwhile, here in SEMI, looks like a moderate band of snow has setup. Roads are slippery out there I would imagine w temps in the 20s.

[james1976]

Temps have underperformed here all week so I still have most of my snowcover. Definitely nice to see. I'm already down to 19°

[james1976]

In 2018 I was traveling through central PA. My God, I wish I was there camped out in a hotel right now.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro with a big shift south with the pre-Christmas storm and pretty strong too.

 

From my lips to Euro's ears...right on cue

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Stacsh said:

GRR very confident a week out on next week's pattern/storm(s?) evolution:   

Amazing they know the track of a the low 7 days out!!

 

- Turning sharply colder mid-week

Upper trough across central Canada amplifies on Wednesday with
arctic front plunging south. Cyclogensis along the front is
expected and this low will track across southern Lower Michigan
with what looks like the potential for a solid stripe of
measurable snow associated with strong low and mid level
frontogenesis. This bears watching as it could be heavy enough to
impact travel on Wednesday. The thermal packing is impressive with
most if not all of the precip expected to be on the north side of
the sfc low where it should be cold enough for p-type to be snow.

There is good model consensus and ensemble support for sharply
colder air arriving with the passage of this low. Most the
operational runs of the 12Z model cycle have 850 mb temps of
minus 20C headed our way for the end of the week.

 

Ikr? That office never ceases to amaze/irritate me. Most times they will down-play til the event's snow has exceeded their early called forecast, then reluctantly do a belated upgrade. But then there's THIS for an event that on the face looks very phase-dependent and thus the scenario that should cause the most hesitation and hedging of bets. Go figure. If I know that office tho, his main excitement is for the blast of arctic air behind the system/front as that's what y'all up there look for to bring winter to yby's. And the cold is more of a sure thing than any storm at this range. My 2 cents. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

I am seeing vid from friends and family members being sent to me from Times Square and it is ripping there. NYC is all covered in snow and accumulating fast. Temp there is at 27F.

Meanwhile, here in SEMI, looks like a moderate band of snow has setup. Roads are slippery out there I would imagine w temps in the 20s.

Picked up about 1/2" of fluffy snow here so at least the ground is whitened for a hot minute. And yes, it was just enough snow after 3 days below freezing to cause slippery travel and nasty icing on the freeways. Saw several slide-offs and 2 looked bad. County road crews were finally getting out with some salt. May have taken them off guard since it didn't hit earlier in the day like was forecast. Prolly figured it wasn't happening (like me).

[jaster220]

Some nice holiday lights out there in the Mitt

 

[Madtown]

33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

From my lips to Euro's ears...right on cue

Looks like I am living or dying on good ol Lake Superior. 

[jaster220]

12z Ukie (and now 17/0z NAM) seem to like this weekend's event as more of a snow-maker here. So far my office is calling it a rainer w/flakes at this point. Ukie with 2+ inches here.

 

[Niko]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

12z Ukie (and now 17/0z NAM) seem to like this weekend's event as more of a snow-maker here. So far my office is calling it a rainer w/flakes at this point. Ukie with 2+ inches here.

 

Looks interesting amigo. Have to keep an eye on this weak weekend system. This could be an 1-3inch event.

[Niko]

Its just cloudy attm w temps at 25F. Snow has stopped. Certainly feels like Christmas out there w cold temps and snow otg. Detroit received 1.1" today. It makes their monthly snowfall total of 7.1."