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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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2 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

The 18z runs are going bonkers.  GFS up to 15".  RDPS to 13".  This starts around noon, so this is interesting.

Congrats to those getting an 11th hour white Christmas.  That's pretty sweet.  Always fun too when models continue to get stronger and stronger as the storm approaches.  The GFS is showing almost 11" in 6 hours on the north of the TC.  That seems pretty incredible, but if it were to happen, that would be a blast to watch.  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco. 

Although it is way at the end of the official 7-day forecast (and mostly beyond), fans of longer-term forecasts will note the POSSIBILITY of a potentially-significant winter storm that is showing very early/preliminary signs of affecting our general Central Plains region during the Tues-Thurs time frame next week. Although this will obviously bear watching in the coming days, anybody reading this knows darn well that it is FAR too soon to put much stock in the details of this system. For now, our forecast merely reflects "innocent" low chances for snow starting next Tuesday.

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21 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

OmaDome!!!

Trade you that for this any day, lol

 

20201223 0z GEM h216 Surf.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm not liking how a couple models are now showing rain up into Iowa.  The Euro starts with snow in southern Missouri, but it cuts so hard the warmth rockets up through Iowa.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro lays down 50" in Kansas, so I'll confidently bet against that. Think this is probably the craziest euro run I've ever seen actually.

snku_acc.us_c.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

My “dome” does allow 8”🤣🤣 

Of rain??

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Bunch of RAINERS here in the extended. yay. Was told the eastern sub would benefit early. Guess the eastern sub = New York and PA. Now the action shifts west. As said, screwed by the Nino-like Modoki Nina. Even the maps just a day ago showing decent (if not huge) LES across SMI have disappeared due to the dead zone between powerful N and S stream storms. 2" inch call looks in serious jeopardy. Prolly already on life support tbh.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The Euro says we will jump to 55º late morning Wednesday.  DVN says only 45º for now.  It is still in the mid 50s in sw Iowa at 1am.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is probably one of the wildest runs I've ever seen off the Euro showing a max of 54" near LNK...these are runs you typically see from Nor' Easters...enjoy this weenie run!  Like @CentralNebWeather said yesterday, how many more times will we see shifts in track and intensity???  The amount of blocking showing up in the models during this period will make tracking this Big Dog quite interesting and fun.  Giddy up!

 

1.png

 

Anyone else excited about storm tracking???  This pattern is about as exciting as I've seen it in a very long long time for nearly all of our Sub.  Just about every model is dialing in on a major New Year's Holiday storm.  I just love it when nature can dial up a wx system to track during a holiday period.  Just hope one can be on the benefiting side of a snowstorm!

Speaking of storms, the next system on deck is for later this weekend for parts of the MW/GL's...it doesn't look like a very large system, more or less, a teaser before the knock out punch to 2020...grand finale???  

00z EPS members for the 27th/28th system...

5.png

 

00z EPS...big time signal this far out for a potential massive storm...

3.png

2.png

 

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