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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This is probably one of the wildest runs I've ever seen off the Euro showing a max of 54" near LNK...these are runs you typically see from Nor' Easters...enjoy this weenie run!  Like @CentralNebWeather said yesterday, how many more times will we see shifts in track and intensity???  The amount of blocking showing up in the models during this period will make tracking this Big Dog quite interesting and fun.  Giddy up!

 

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Anyone else excited about storm tracking???  This pattern is about as exciting as I've seen it in a very long long time for nearly all of our Sub.  Just about every model is dialing in on a major New Year's Holiday storm.  I just love it when nature can dial up a wx system to track during a holiday period.  Just hope one can be on the benefiting side of a snowstorm!

Speaking of storms, the next system on deck is for later this weekend for parts of the MW/GL's...it doesn't look like a very large system, more or less, a teaser before the knock out punch to 2020...grand finale???  

00z EPS members for the 27th/28th system...

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00z EPS...big time signal this far out for a potential massive storm...

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I don't believe I've seen such high amounts predicted run after run in my area since the blizzard of 2011.  That storm was the first of Feb and featured both a deep -AO but also a deep -NAO.

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not liking how a couple models are now showing rain up into Iowa.  The Euro starts with snow in southern Missouri, but it cuts so hard the warmth rockets up through Iowa.

Also. Hopefully the snowpack to the N from this current storm helps suppress, but I'am concerned about liquid.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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While areas to the west and north west will get a lot of snow the next few days, At this time I am not real impressed with the set up for this lake effect event. We shall see if can happen for a white Christmas in our area. The current temperature here at my house is now 40 with mostly cloudy skies. The current mean for December at Grand Rapids is 33.3 and that is +3.0 above average. The total snow fall for December is just a trace and for the season it is just 0.4" and that is now more than 22" below average at this point

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7 minutes ago, whatitdo said:


is there a reason his maps never show anything for west michigan or is that just how this map is? 

 

My assumption is bad model resolution.  But couldn't say for sure.  I wouldn't be concerned about it.  The GEFS map I posted above shows heavy snow for W MI.

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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It's up to 50º here.  The mild air overnight finished off the snow.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

I don't believe I've seen such high amounts predicted run after run in my area since the blizzard of 2011.  That storm was the first of Feb and featured both a deep -AO but also a deep -NAO.

I  know I'm the eternal pessimist when it comes to snow, but I'm sensing that this is going to turn out to be a rainer for KC. Another one of those storms that has rain south of the Iowa boarder and snow north of it. I really hope I'm wrong because it looks like someone's getting a major hit off of this one.  Maybe the tanking AO by that time will help.  I'd love to be wrong.

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3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I  know I'm the eternal pessimist when it comes to snow, but I'm sensing that this is going to turn out to be a rainer for KC. Another one of those storms that has rain south of the Iowa boarder and snow north of it. I really hope I'm wrong because it looks like someone's getting a major hit off of this one.  Maybe the tanking AO by that time will help.  I'd love to be wrong.

That may be the case.  I do think the -AO will have an influence on it.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z ICON

1609372800-qd7vYhFYHxo.png

That's from multiple storms tho, correct? Going to be confusing/misleading until storms 1 & 2 do whatever they do.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 minutes ago, GDR said:

Cc

78122ECE-4EDF-4B23-BAB5-4D770914D8A2.jpeg

Finally. A batch of ENS's that show more than flurries around these parts. We here in the Mitt really need some -AO magic like never before. The GEFS mean looks a lot like GHD-2 and Dec 2000 bliz. Prolly over-done like all systems at this range, but it's heading in the right direction.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It feels awesome outside w temps in the 40s. Some sunshine coming out as well. A given for this time of the year. Looks like I will be getting rain tanite w a changeover to snow w some accumulations likely, especially late Thurs into Fri. Colder weather follows. Not sure why these clowns are calling it "Arctic Air." Its not! Highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens is a little BN for this time of the year, thats all. No big deal.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

While areas to the west and north west will get a lot of snow the next few days, At this time I am not real impressed with the set up for this lake effect event. We shall see if can happen for a white Christmas in our area. The current temperature here at my house is now 40 with mostly cloudy skies. The current mean for December at Grand Rapids is 33.3 and that is +3.0 above average. The total snow fall for December is just a trace and for the season it is just 0.4" and that is now more than 22" below average at this point

At least you have a WWA for up to 3" meaning the chances of a white Christmas are good. Not gonna make up the entire deficit to date with this LES event, but the timing is nice. With the veering winds, my best hope is actually towards the end of the "window" per models and the GRR. If any significant streamers can make it this far inland, it will most likely be after dark and possibly not until Christmas morning at the earliest, maybe again later Christmas Day or overnight into Saturday if we can keep the flow long enough. Good luck up there.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Just now, Grizzcoat said:

12Z GFS is a monster....

Going to be a big warm surge again, though.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yep, further north than 6z and warmer.  Yesterday DVN said a more southerly track is likely though.

 

Quote

The progged longwave pattern across North America has a deep trof centered around 83W and a de-amplifying ridge off the west coast. Thus the further north trend of the CMC global appears anomalous as a more southerly track would be favored.

 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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We have to get rid of the cutter action, though.  I sure as heck don't want a few inches of snow followed by a surge of mild air and rain.  That's New England weather.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

It feels awesome outside w temps in the 40s. Some sunshine coming out as well. A given for this time of the year. Looks like I will be getting rain tanite w a changeover to snow w some accumulations likely, especially late Thurs into Fri. Colder weather follows. Not sure why these clowns are calling it "Arctic Air." Its not! Highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens is a little BN for this time of the year, thats all. No big deal.

I have a low of 16F with snowshowers Friday morning here. I don't think you can call that "summer air", lol. Especially with the windchills around ZERO. Besides, the reference to the source region defines how they term it, even if modified by the time it reaches us. Btw, are you going to NYC for Christmas to watch the big melt-off? (j/k) Hoping to get whitened up around here by Friday to add to the festive feel.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yep, further north than 6z and warmer.  Yesterday DVN said a more southerly track is likely though.

 

 

Where does the energy come onshore out west? If further south, then yeah, the more southern track should play out.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The GFS continues to track this monster north of me and I believe it. I expect the other models will fall in line in future runs. The GFS sniffed out the current storm correctly so I expect to get nothing as long as it keeps it north.

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  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": none; Season total: 0.0" (0% of normal 17.0")
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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I have a low of 16F with snowshowers Friday morning here. I don't think you can call that "summer air", lol. Especially with the windchills around ZERO. Besides, the reference to the source region defines how they term it, even if modified by the time it reaches us. Btw, are you going to NYC for Christmas to watch the big melt-off? (j/k) Hoping to get whitened up around here by Friday to add to the festive feel.

No, its not Summer, but its not Arctic air either. After all, it is MI right.

Unfortunately not this yr w this fu***ing Covid. Melt -off indeed, but hey, at least they got a decent snowfall there in NYC, whereas, Macomb has been getting peanuts as of lately.

Yep, good luck w your area on Friday. Looks like you should get some decent LES, if winds are favorable.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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NOAA:

The big question is howmuch eastward momentum/push does the front have by 
Thursday morning,as the lead upper level PV energy/aggressive 500 MB 6 hr height fall
center tracks north-northeast through eastern Lake Superior.
Meanwhile, phasing of a northern stream/arctic wave with subtropical
jet/southern energy along the Gulf Coast states will occur on
Thursday, with a deep closed 500 MB low developing in and around
Central Mississippi River Valley into Kentucky/Tennessee by day`s
end. This will make for a real interesting forecast by Thursday
evening, as cyclogensis takes place and surface low tracks through
Central Pennsylvania or possibly close to Pittsburgh. The strength
of the surface low and the developing trowal arching back through
the Eastern Great Lakes will determine if eastern areas get clipped
with accumulating snow as the trough axis goes negative tilt.
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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

NOAA:


The big question is howmuch eastward momentum/push does the front have by 
Thursday morning,as the lead upper level PV energy/aggressive 500 MB 6 hr height fall
center tracks north-northeast through eastern Lake Superior.
Meanwhile, phasing of a northern stream/arctic wave with subtropical
jet/southern energy along the Gulf Coast states will occur on
Thursday, with a deep closed 500 MB low developing in and around
Central Mississippi River Valley into Kentucky/Tennessee by day`s
end. This will make for a real interesting forecast by Thursday
evening, as cyclogensis takes place and surface low tracks through
Central Pennsylvania or possibly close to Pittsburgh. The strength
of the surface low and the developing trowal arching back through
the Eastern Great Lakes will determine if eastern areas get clipped
with accumulating snow as the trough axis goes negative tilt.

This potential for SEMI to get swiped reminds me of the 12/23/04 storm that did just that. Had flurries here while Detroit got 6-7" and even my old home town up in Genese Cnty had a solid 4-5". Was really cold Christmas Eve too. 5F I can remember. The good old days..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This potential for SEMI to get swiped reminds me of the 12/23/04 storm that did just that. Had flurries here while Detroit got 6-7" and even my old home town up in Genese Cnty had a solid 4-5". Was really cold Christmas Eve too. 5F I can remember. The good old days..

That must have been frustrating for ya....Yikes!

Btw: Dont forget to have milk and cookies ready for Santa on Christmas Eve...😉

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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The Canadian has enough of a wnw flow over the northern plains/midwest to keep the big system more suppressed than the GFS.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

That must have been frustrating for ya....Yikes!

Btw: Dont forget to have milk and cookies ready for Santa on Christmas Eve...😉

Np, bought my fave kind

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Np, bought my fave kind

My wife is making Greek Butter Cookies, which are phenomenal. Also, I am expecting lots of packages from NYC, so looking forward to that.

Here is an i.e. of a batch of Greek Christmas Cookies:

"Kourabiedes"https://www.mygreekdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Easiest-Homemade-Kourabiedes-Christmas-Butter-Cookies-22.jpg

The ones on the right are called Melomakarona:

https://newrecipesforlife.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/kourabiedes-melamakarona.jpg

 

 

 

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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The Canadian is a dream for Iowa.  It's a better scenario for many in the region because the flow prevents a cutter.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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