December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[snowstorm83]

Albany, NY just casually picking up another 22-27" storm for the second year in a row...

[bud2380]

Just a bad pattern right now.  A lot like the summer where we had long stretches of nothing.  Not sure what, if anything, can shake it.  Even the cold shot around Christmas looks to last 2 days and then it's immediately back to above normal and dry.  

[mlgamer]

Dec 17 and we are still looking for our first 1'' of snow here. Nothing definite in the near future...so may be waiting awhile.

[james1976]

Yet another day of temps underperforming. If anything, I guess it helps keep the snowcover.

[GDR]

[snowstorm83]

3 minutes ago, GDR said:

Well that's not a nice looking map

[bud2380]

The new NWS radar went into effect today (or maybe yesterday, but I just noticed it today).  It's going to take some getting used to for me.  I used the old radar for probably 15 years.  The new one is clunky and slow.  I need some time to adjust to the new colors and understanding what is truly heavier vs. lighter precip.  I wish the radar had a p-type feature.  I know it has the dual pol so you can see p-type, but it would be nice if they would integrate that into the main radar view.  The radars you see on TV like on local news stations or on TWC are always way better than what you can get online.  One of the few radars that I really like is Radar Scope, but it doesn't have national or regional views, College of Dupage is pretty good too, but also local views only.  So i liked to use the NWS radar for national and regional views.  

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

LONG TERM / MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Fast flow pattern becomes the norm for the long term period as brief
zonal flow pattern sets up late Sunday into early Monday allowing
for temporary dry conditions before a quick moving clipper dives
southeast across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. Long range
guidance synoptic pattern looks pretty favorable at least this far
out for a clipper setup, and this system will need to be watched
over the coming days. Outside of the potential early next week
clipper system, potential exists for the middle of next week for
some colder weather to return as arctic air dives south in deep
troughing.

 

[Niko]

Currently light snow falling w temps near 30F.

[james1976]

29 minutes ago, GDR said:

Whats the difference from most above average and much above average?

[Beltrami Island]

29 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Whats the difference from most above average and much above average?

Its called weasel wording.  Its the reason that whole map has no actual temperature ranges.  If it turns out the biggest departure from average is 1 degree or 10 degrees does not matter as long as the departure is centered around CO, NM, and TX they get will claim this forecast as being correct. 

[bud2380]

Congrats Twin Cities on the White Christmas.  Pretty cool that it will happen just before the holiday.  

 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Congrats Twin Cities on the White Christmas.  Pretty cool that it will happen just before the holiday.  

 

There's actually a storm thread for this one...

[bud2380]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

There's actually a storm thread for this one...

Oh, i didn't realize.  Thanks for the heads up.  

[Niko]

Some light snow still falling outside w temps at 29F. I am sure that there are slippery spots out there.

[Hawkeye]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The new NWS radar went into effect today (or maybe yesterday, but I just noticed it today).  It's going to take some getting used to for me.  I used the old radar for probably 15 years.  The new one is clunky and slow.  I need some time to adjust to the new colors and understanding what is truly heavier vs. lighter precip.  I wish the radar had a p-type feature.  I know it has the dual pol so you can see p-type, but it would be nice if they would integrate that into the main radar view.  The radars you see on TV like on local news stations or on TWC are always way better than what you can get online.  One of the few radars that I really like is Radar Scope, but it doesn't have national or regional views, College of Dupage is pretty good too, but also local views only.  So i liked to use the NWS radar for national and regional views.  

Yikes!  For me, the new NWS radar page is an unusable mess.

[jaster220]

Was up in GR finishing Santa biz and returned home to see another fresh snow covering of 1/2". pennies and nickles..pennies and nickles. Looks like it was snowing 6 hours. That makes it .083"/hr. PA's got nothin on mby!

[Minny_Weather]

Euro just spawned a random clipper here for Sunday night lol

[Clinton]

Oz ICON with a big shift south.  Big time share the wealth storm on Christmas Eve.  It would fit with cycle 1 so I will not discount it. @Tom may wanna take a look.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Was up in GR finishing Santa biz and returned home to see another fresh snow covering of 1/2". pennies and nickles..pennies and nickles. Looks like it was snowing 6 hours. That makes it .083"/hr. PA's got nothin on mby!

Same here bud...had a moderate band going for a couple of hours. Everything is snow covered. Probably added another 0.5."

[Niko]

Still reporting light snow w temps at 28F.

[Niko]

Updated my snow totals as more snow fell today. Another inch was reported in Detroit, which makes my total 8.6." Keep in mind, average is 6.1" so running AN snowfall for the month of December.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, the sun/warmup got all my snow melted today. It actually hung around very well, or at least better than I really ever expected it to. Impressive.

Looks like you folks turn pretty soon. Here's hoping for you all!

[OKwx2k4]

15 minutes ago, Niko said:

Updated my snow totals as more snow fell today. Another inch was reported in Detroit, which makes my total 8.6." Keep in mind, average is 6.1" so running AB snowfall for the month of December.

Stack it up buddy!

[jaster220]

25 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Well, the sun/warmup got all my snow melted today. It actually hung around very well, or at least better than I really ever expected it to. Impressive.

Looks like you folks turn pretty soon. Here's hoping for you all!

Been meaning to ask. How much did you get exactly?

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Oz ICON with a big shift south.  Big time share the wealth storm on Christmas Eve.  It would fit with cycle 1 so I will not discount it. @Tom may wanna take a look.

Yep, shares the snow with everybody from Chicago west. That's not sharing the wealth, that's a Grinch storm, lol

[Niko]

Headline just popped up for my area:

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1240 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020

MIZ063-069-070-076-180745-
St. Clair-Oakland-Macomb-Wayne-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Pontiac, Warren, and Detroit
1240 AM EST Fri Dec 18 2020

...Icy Roads Possible Overnight...

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will affect portions of the
area through 2 or 3 AM before diminishing. With temperatures in
the mid to upper 20s, any freezing drizzle will cause untreated
roads to be very icy. Drivers should exercise caution on the
roads tonight.

 

[Tom]

Happy Friday!  #TGIF

As hectic and chaotic our lives have been this year, I'm seeing the same theme in the model world.  Pretty massive changes showing up right as we approach the Christmas Holiday into the New Year.  Both the Bearing Sea Rule and LRC suggest 2 storm systems to hit the southern/eastern Sub.  What happens for the Christmas Holiday storm is still in question.  Does it indeed phase into a S Stream storm???  Let's see it play out....nonetheless, the forthcoming pattern setting up for the post holiday period and the final week of December could actually put a lot of our Sub in an active pattern ripe for snowfall.  I've been looking for a New Years storm (maybe a day or so earlier) to begin showing up.  Last night's 00z EPS and the last few runs off the GEFS are flipping towards the 10mb strat pattern which has been advertising a beneficial pattern for us snow enthusiasts.  I'll explain below...

 

The Euro's bias of always trying to place a trough along the western NAMER coast is at play here (esp the Euro Weeklies) and the corrections are/have been showing up towards more ridging.  The deeper shades of blues in the 10mb strat forecast fade quickly towards the end of Nov and are replaced with warmer anomalies in early Dec that translate (2-3 weeks later) towards (+) anomalies in the Upper Air pattern.  The aforementioned pattern is illustrated below in last nights 00z EPS 500mb animation...

 

 

It's conceivable, that we could be tracking 2 more systems before the year's out after the Christmas storm (27th-28th & 30th - Jan 1st) .  The Week 2 snow mean has grown and now there are many more hits showing up across the board.    

 

That being said, is there an end of the year rally ahead??  I believe so...and I do think there will be some on here who will remain disapointed (esp out west).  I'l end this post with this 10mb Strat forecast which shows just one run but is leading me to believe the "Best is yet to come"....I see you SSW...

 

[Stormy]

12 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yikes!  For me, the new NWS radar page is an unusable mess.

Yes the new one now is till I maybe get used to it. The old one was nice to quickly get regional and national views.

[westMJim]

Good morning. Today is December 18^th and as of this morning Grand Rapids has only had 0.4” of total snow fall for this winter season. In the last 100 years this year is now already the 2^nd date with out reaching at least 1” of total snow fall in a winter season. In 1998 the date was December 21^st At this time 2020 is in 2^nd place 3^rd place is 1948 when GRR did not report a total seasonal snow fall of 1” until December 10^th other years that went into December before reaching one inch of seasonal snow fall are. 1927 and 2012 December 8^th 1934 and 1984 December 6^th 1973 December 5^th 1931 December 4^th and 1946 December 1^st all other winter season had 1” or more before the start of December. Grand Rapids has now had 3 days in a row where the temperature has stayed below 32. At this time it is cloudy and 29 here at my house.

 

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Been meaning to ask. How much did you get exactly?

Going with somewhere around 3.5".

I'd say 7"+ fell but it was 34 to 35 degrees then (until 2 pm) on water saturated ground that was really warm. I guessed it at half ratio snow. It was like cement. Lol.

Per the other post I shared and the radar images I posted, northwest of me recieved much more. Close to 8" per Reed Timmer, storm chaser, snow tracker, etc...

[OKwx2k4]

@Tom

That stratosphere is like watching a dream come true. Perfection.

This will be the first time in many years I will get to see that stupid ridge disappear and I'll get my beautiful retrogression on the southern branch right in the sweet spot of winter. I'm just calling that one now.

[Niko]

Attm, its 27F under cloudy skies. Looks beautiful outside w a nice blanket of snow.

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Good morning. Today is December 18^th and as of this morning Grand Rapids has only had 0.4” of total snow fall for this winter season. In the last 100 years this year is now already the 2^nd date with out reaching at least 1” of total snow fall in a winter season. In 1998 the date was December 21^st At this time 2020 is in 2^nd place 3^rd place is 1948 when GRR did not report a total seasonal snow fall of 1” until December 10^th other years that went into December before reaching one inch of seasonal snow fall are. 1927 and 2012 December 8^th 1934 and 1984 December 6^th 1973 December 5^th 1931 December 4^th and 1946 December 1^st all other winter season had 1” or more before the start of December. Grand Rapids has now had 3 days in a row where the temperature has stayed below 32. At this time it is cloudy and 29 here at my house.

 

I had a trace of snow overnight, not sure that adds to the abysmal total.  

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Attm, its 27F under cloudy skies. Looks beautiful outside w a nice blanket of snow.

Not quite enough snow to hide leafs, trash, etc. here. Looks like we'll be melting this light-weight fluff anyways with highs going above freezing. This is acting more like a Nino around SWMI.

[jaster220]

@Tom

As mentioned elsewhere, you can clearly see a pattern here now that we're in real winter month, not autumn any more. Systems are weak to the west and finally gain momentum/phasing/moisture north and east of us. Looks like those in pink shades will continue the established trends to date. Those of us back west that only manage "the blues" will remain under-impressed with what this winter is offering up.

[Niko]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not quite enough snow to hide leafs, trash, etc. here. Looks like we'll be melting this light-weight fluff anyways with highs going above freezing. This is acting more like a Nino around SWMI.

Yep..here too, especially over the weekend when temps could reach 40F. Even the chance for some rain and fog, especially Saturday nite.

Btw:  Next week, temps have a shot at near 50F by midweek.....

[james1976]

Canadian with a clipper Monday 

[Tom]

12z UKIE for the Monday clipper...

 

 

[jaster220]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z UKIE for the Monday clipper...

 

 

finally. a clipper but timed post cold snap. just can't win with this pattern. lol