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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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20 minutes ago, Niko said:

My wife is making Greek Butter Cookies, which are phenomenal. Also, I am expecting lots of packages from NYC, so looking forward to that.

Here is an i.e. of a batch of Greek Christmas Cookies:

"Kourabiedes"https://www.mygreekdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Easiest-Homemade-Kourabiedes-Christmas-Butter-Cookies-22.jpg

The ones on the right are called Melomakarona:

https://newrecipesforlife.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/kourabiedes-melamakarona.jpg

 

 

 

 

Image may contain: 1 person, meme, text that says 'WHEN YOU GIVE NON GREEKS VIA GREEKGATEWAY GREEKGATEWAY.COM COM GREEKGA KOURABIEDES FOR THE FIRST TIME'

 

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47 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The GFS continues to track this monster north of me and I believe it. I expect the other models will fall in line in future runs. The GFS sniffed out the current storm correctly so I expect to get nothing as long as it keeps it north.

I wouldn’t give up hope. The only issue I see is someone will have to deal with ice it appears. Hopefully we all share in this monster. 

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51 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

i know.... melamakarona is my weakness!!!! I can have 20 of them with out blinking an eye LOL

Yep, same here. Vasilopita (Greek Sweet Bread for those who do not know) is also amazing to dip in milk. I can eat multiple pieces easily, especially, when they are fresh.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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12z GFS and CMC runs were less favorable for me...still a great storm to track. Trends will be interesting in the days ahead.

For me...

GFS: Rain/T-storms, dry slot, 1-2" snow on the back end.

CMC: 18+hrs sleet/FZR, 6-11" snow on the back end.

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  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": none; Season total: 0.0" (0% of normal 17.0")
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Just now, mlgamer said:

12z GFS and CMC runs were less favorable for me...still a great storm to track. Trends will be interesting in the days ahead.

For me...

GFS: Rain/T-storms, dry slot, 1-2" snow on the back end.

Canadian: 18+hrs sleet/FZR, 6-8" snow on the back end.

Went back and dug into the Nov thread, this storm was big then.  Lots of differences this time, the AO was high + around the 10th of Nov this time it will be fairly deep negative.  The jet stream should be stronger now as well, this baby should dig.  I think you are in a golden spot.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Went back and dug into the Nov thread, this storm was big then.  Lots of differences this time, the AO was high + around the 10th of Nov this time it will be fairly deep negative.  The jet stream should be stronger now as well, this baby should dig.  I think you are in a golden spot.

Yeah, I hope we both score big on this. I'll be a lot happier if the GFS trends south. The track it's taking is pretty typical for our area though so that's a worry...😬😉

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  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": none; Season total: 0.0" (0% of normal 17.0")
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For the big storm next week, the 12z Euro is in closer to the GFS than the Canadian.  It's a massive trough that will pull a ton of moisture up into the region.  I'll be PO'd if we get rain out of this.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

A little windy, but I’m going golfing.  Near 50 with no snow and dry ground on dec 23rd?!?  Heck yeah 

I drove home all the way across South Dakota and then down I29 to Omaha last night making it home about 1am and the temp was never below 47 degrees with zero snow anywhere. Of course I was driving home last night to avoid the blizzard of today!

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At first, the Euro appears to have a bit more suppressive flow that might keep the snow farther south, but then the flow to the north relaxes and the warmth surges... major bummer.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Jeez, the Euro has rain up to Lake Superior this run.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yep, 12z Euro shows warm surge overtaking me similar to GFS. I know it's way early but this already feels like the kiss of death. Once a storm trends away from here on the models it pretty much never returns. On to the 00z suite I guess...lol

  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": none; Season total: 0.0" (0% of normal 17.0")
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Look at that huge ridge in the east... a killer for most of us.  When the storm's energy moves into the sw US, there is a trough in the lakes/east, but as the storm moves out into the plains the eastern troughiness rapidly lifts out and is replaced that this monster ridge.

500hv.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Shows snow in Nebraska for at least 3 days. I’d love to experience something like this, but not assuming anything. Lots of changes in the next 6 days, I’d think. 

The models are actually not in too bad of agreement being this far out. I just hope warm air doesn't ruin the fun for us!

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While it is 54 here at my house the last official reading at GRR looks to have been 52. Even that 52 would make this the 4th warmest December 23 of record here at GR. 54 would make it 3rd warmest of record. The record is 60 set in 2015. The sun was ut for a short while but the sky is now very dark tot he west.

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

I really hope this is NOT a hard cutter

Don't get sucked in otherwise it will ruin you. At this point you have to go with probably a hard cutter or suppressed to maybe flurries. Until this climate changes around these parts expect nothing 

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4 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The winds are absolutely howling right now in Cedar Rapids. 

I had a little business to do nearby and wanted to do it before the cold front blasts through, so I took my 1000w fat tire ebike out for a spin. The cf blew in soon after I started off and it nearly blew me off of the road a few times! Lol  I can go over 30 mph with a full battery, but not in an angle or toward  wind plus it would be kinda dangerous.
Later checked and my top wind speed was at least 53 mph. Also the temperature peaked at 57°, now it’s back in the 30°s. 

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Just looked at the forecast for next week on one of my weather apps. 
 

Monday night 1”

Tuesday.     5-8”

Tuesday night 3-5”

Wednesday. 1-3”

Wednesday night 1-3”

I don’t remember forecasted amounts that high so far from a snow event. Will be fun and probably frustrating at times to see them go up and down over the next 5 days. 

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NWS Hastings already discussing next week. 


Fast forwarding several days ahead to the next storm system that appears to be looming for next week, there are 2 key differences between the current one and this one: 1) The one next week is a more classic/slow-moving/large-scale system that for being 6+ days out has an impressive amount of agreement between the ECMWF/GFS model solutions on being a potentially-impactful snow maker for at least portions of our CWA, along with likely strong winds. As a result, instead of being a quick-hitter such as today`s with winter impacts mainly occurring within a 15-18 hour time window, the one next week could be a longer-duration winter storm, perhaps of the 36-48 hour variety. 2) As a result of #1, and from a messaging/awareness standpoint, this next one will likely get a lot more play/attention than the one today ended up getting, as they are just completely different "animals" from a forecast confidence perspective. Both those points being made, we certainly want to make it clear that it is WAY too early to provide any kind of detail regarding next week`s system (including snow amounts) as there is plenty of time for at least a slight shift in timing and perhaps a more significant north-south shift in storm track to increase/decrease snow potential. As a result, snow chances/PoPs have been capped at no-higher-than 50 percent for now. However, given it is the holiday travel season, felt it would be prudent to at least introduce some "winter storm possible but still highly uncertain) wording to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) earlier today.

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