December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Friday!  #TGIF

As hectic and chaotic our lives have been this year, I'm seeing the same theme in the model world.  Pretty massive changes showing up right as we approach the Christmas Holiday into the New Year.  Both the Bearing Sea Rule and LRC suggest 2 storm systems to hit the southern/eastern Sub.  What happens for the Christmas Holiday storm is still in question.  Does it indeed phase into a S Stream storm???  Let's see it play out....nonetheless, the forthcoming pattern setting up for the post holiday period and the final week of December could actually put a lot of our Sub in an active pattern ripe for snowfall.  I've been looking for a New Years storm (maybe a day or so earlier) to begin showing up.  Last night's 00z EPS and the last few runs off the GEFS are flipping towards the 10mb strat pattern which has been advertising a beneficial pattern for us snow enthusiasts.  I'll explain below...

 

The Euro's bias of always trying to place a trough along the western NAMER coast is at play here (esp the Euro Weeklies) and the corrections are/have been showing up towards more ridging.  The deeper shades of blues in the 10mb strat forecast fade quickly towards the end of Nov and are replaced with warmer anomalies in early Dec that translate (2-3 weeks later) towards (+) anomalies in the Upper Air pattern.  The aforementioned pattern is illustrated below in last nights 00z EPS 500mb animation...

 

 

It's conceivable, that we could be tracking 2 more systems before the year's out after the Christmas storm (27th-28th & 30th - Jan 1st) .  The Week 2 snow mean has grown and now there are many more hits showing up across the board.    

 

That being said, is there an end of the year rally ahead??  I believe so...and I do think there will be some on here who will remain disapointed (esp out west).  I'l end this post with this 10mb Strat forecast which shows just one run but is leading me to believe the "Best is yet to come"....I see you SSW...

 

GEFS sure seems to like the storm you have listed on the 30th-1st.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GEFS sure seems to like the storm you have listed on the 30th-1st.

We should have a storm parade come into the picture...starting off with the Christmas Day storm and then the New Year's one and then another one following that which should all begin to dig into the 4 corners/TX Pan Handle region.  I like the set up I'm seeing as we near the beginning of 2021.

[Tom]

41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GEFS sure seems to like the storm you have listed on the 30th-1st.

12z Euro advertising the southern stream storm parade...finish off 2020 with a bang!  If all works out, we should be tracking 3 storms to end the year.

 

[Clinton]

The EC also has a storm on the 28th and much like a lot of the GEFS members, it has a monster of a storm on the 30th.  Good days are ahead we have earned some snow lol.

 

[Niko]

Looks like cloudy skies will be the dominate feature today w maybe some partial clearing, and that is a big "Maybe." Current temp at 32F.

[bud2380]

Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up

 

[GDR]

That’s big time for a lot of folks

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up

 

The drought areas sure do stand out on that map.

[CentralNebWeather]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up

 

Impressive. 

[Tony]

37 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up

 

Except for most of Illinois/Indiana

[Tony]

18z NAM with a blockbuster of a snow event on Monday...might snow for about 1 hr.

[OKwx2k4]

All righty then....

At everyone above, now suppress south and pile it up. Getting there.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm actually getting nervous about what's coming in January, truthfully. Given the euro's biases, there's a glacier coming to my house for 2021.

[Niko]

Quote:

Pastelok added that his hunch is that the storm will move over more directly hit areas from Michigan to Indiana, including Chicago, which will lay the snow needed for a white Christmas, just in the nick of time.

"There is a storm expected to come up next week and it looks like it may get here just in time for Christmas Eve, so that may leave some snow for that area to have a higher chance at a white Christmas," he said.

 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up

 

3..2..1..  Commence SE trend

[jaster220]

If the NAM has it's way, we in the Mitt will at least keep the flavor of wintry weather around for the next few days courtesy of a couple waves/clippers. 2m temps will work against much actual accumulation this far south, but mood flakes this time of year > sunny-n-dry.

 

[Tom]

Impressive wintry signal showing up in the LR with multiple systems on the calendar following the Christmas holiday.  Lot's of of potential here for many of us who are stuck in a snow drought to pick up steam in that dept.  Prob the best signal yet off tonight's 00z EPS...with blocking developing over the top and systems tracking into what I call the "4 corners Slot"...time to get the party started???  Better late then never...

 

 

 

00z GEFS agreeing towards the same "snowy theme"...can we dream???

[Minny_Weather]

Got down to 1°F at KFAR, but it's already up to 3 now with a South wind bringing in WAA.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro starting to put my Christmas eve storm on the map again.

[tStacsh]

Wow. Arctic air disappears.  GFS is trash 

[Niko]

Attm its 33F under cloudy skies. Some snow likely today by pm, which then mixes w rain by evening. Maybe another inch??!! Highs should remain in the 30s.

[Niko]

Currently, light to moderate snow falling and temp holding steady at 34F.

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Currently, light to moderate snow falling and temp holding steady at 34F.

Big old dry slot here, but my office seems bullish on the clipper Monday as of this morning.

- Clipper System to Bring Precipitation on Monday

A clipper system will slide southeast through the Great Lakes on
Monday. This system is better organized than today`s system and we
will likely see a bit more in the way of precipitation. Soundings
would support mainly snow. It`s possible we see a little bit of
rain mix in as surface temperatures will be marginal (around
33F). We could see some accumulation of snow on Monday with 1-3
inch amounts not out of the question at this point.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

Currently, light to moderate snow falling and temp holding steady at 34F.

Seems like you get a little bit of snow everyday, that's awesome!

[Niko]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Seems like you get a little bit of snow everyday, that's awesome!

"Detroit Magnet" is coming in play!

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

If the NAM has it's way, we in the Mitt will at least keep the flavor of wintry weather around for the next few days courtesy of a couple waves/clippers. 2m temps will work against much actual accumulation this far south, but mood flakes this time of year > sunny-n-dry.

 

I don't think today's portion of this is happening (for here), so that leaves Monday's clipper to bring festive flakes (or not).

[Hawkeye]

Despite the denseness of the snow pack, it's fading quickly.  We are probably down to an inch officially.  There is grass showing in open areas.

[snowstorm83]

KLNK hit 48 yesterday. It felt pretty balmy. Just patches left in shaded areas and piles left. 

[Tom]

12z GFS with a wave train of systems to close out the month and open 2021...looking good...

[gimmesnow]

This seems awfully optimistic for cold temps. No way this happens if there's no snow pack in December, right?

[Minny_Weather]

17 hours ago, Tom said:

12z GFS with a wave train of systems to close out the month and open 2021...looking good...

Aaaaaaaand it's in the time of year where suppression makes storms impossible here .

After the 12/23 potential, window's closed here till February.

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Aaaaaaaand it's in the time of year where suppression makes storms impossible here .

After the 12/23 potential, window's closed here till February.

It does appear to be heading that way with stronger blocking developing, thus creating a more active southern stream instead of a dominant early season northern stream.  The 00z EPS snow mean shows some snow up your way before the active wave train develops post Christmas coming out of the SW...hope you can score some snow and lay down a snow pack up there.

[Tom]

Both the Euro/GFS op are seeing a major warming event across Siberia to finish off December...

 

 

 

A major reversal is about to transpire over the next 10 days...from a very cold Strat over the next couple days to a blow torch by Day 10...BIG implications in the near future with regards to the Polar Vortex.  The reversal in 10mb temps is an eye popping 40-50+ Celsius!  Simply amazing...

 

[Niko]

Temp at 35F under cloudy skies. A few snowshowers possible today, especially tomorrow as a weak clipper rolls on through.

[Niko]

Went out this morning to get a gourmet breakfast and I gotta tell ya, it was awesome hearing the Christmas songs playing out there. I have to admit though, the art of campanology is kept alive during the holiday season. "Tis the Season Y'all."

[Niko]

Dont forget y'all check the "Christmas Star" tomorrow, early evening right after sunset, SW corner of the sky. For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about, google it. Very interesting feature. Telescope will be your best tool, if you want to see the famed rings of Saturn's and Jupiter's Great Red Spot.

[OmahaSnowFan]

39 straight days w no precip up in Sioux Falls, SD

[jaster220]

Clipper Monday looks interesting. Brings it's own cold aloft so flakes "should" fly. NWS says its more white rain tho due to marginal surface temps. Expecting another slushy car-topper. Still, most exciting thing going..

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, Euro is actually encouraging for here. It's all nickel and dimers but I'll take anything to finally get a snowpack going at this point.

[Minny_Weather]

Meanwhile today, I had a bit of a weenie band come through. However, it started as rain then changed to snow. Therefore, I have a glaze of ice with a coating of snow on top of it. 34*F.