December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton 4408]

@Tom Gary has hinted several times now including just a few min ago of a 40 day cycle.  Which does seem to line-up, this cycle just has a + AO influence.  If that is the case then the storm showing up for latter next week could certainly be a big dog as it would be the big storm from late Oct part of the pattern.  Curious to hear your thoughts.

[Tom 16870]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Tom Gary has hinted several times now including just a few min ago of a 40 day cycle.  Which does seem to line-up, this cycle just has a + AO influence.  If that is the case then the storm showing up for latter next week could certainly be a big dog as it would be the big storm from late Oct part of the pattern.  Curious to hear your thoughts.

I’m at th gym now but I’ll look into it later today.

[CentralNebWeather 4704]

NWS Hastings, the bad news continues. 
 

Pending the outcome of the meandering upper low, temperatures
should start to rebound next Friday and continue the trend into
the next week. The 8-13 day period still looks mostly dry and
likely warmer than normal. Anomalously warm temperatures will
persist across most of Canada as upper high pressure ridges up
into the prairie provinces. That essentially keeps any prolonged
cold air out of area until possibly mid December. On top of that,
if the midweek low pressure doesn`t bring precipitation to speak
of, most of the region will likely be dry until mid December too.

[Niko 7225]

Now, I dont wanna jump the gun here, but, my forecast shows another snowevent for the following weekend (Dec 4-5th timeframe) and it has colder temps to go w it as well. This is the storm that will bring Clinton and potentially OKwx some appreciable snows and eventually towards the GL's area.

[FAR_Weather 5214]

15 hours ago, Niko said:

Now , here is something ya don't see everyday...

From NOAA: "Child Abduction Emergency"

 

 

Depends on the state. When I lived in Texas, we had those basically every week.

[Niko 7225]

10 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Depends on the state. When I lived in Texas, we had those basically every week.

Did not know that. Very interesting that weather stations show that type of message (its good, no dought about it).

 

 

[Clinton 4408]

I can now add the ICON to the list of models showing snow on the 4th.  Hope the moisture is there, this guy should head towards the great lakes.  Amounts seem more realistic than what the Euro has advertised.

[james1976 3976]

The cold is ready to pound....

[Clinton 4408]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

The cold is ready to pound....

Yes sir!  I am ready for Winter.

[Tom 16870]

12 EPS...looking good for the S MW/Plains for a nice early hit...kinda fizzles out as the cut-off low heads east but there is time for adjustments.

 

 

 

Then....the following weekend is when we begin to see REAL Winter set up shop and the EPS is signaling what I've been planning on, that being, a storm system coming out of the Rockies and into the Plains/MW along an Arctic Front.  This should be a fun period around the 11th-13th and could last for a couple or more weeks.

 

[Clinton 4408]

30 minutes ago, Tom said:

12 EPS...looking good for the S MW/Plains for a nice early hit...kinda fizzles out as the cut-off low heads east but there is time for adjustments.

 

 

 

Then....the following weekend is when we begin to see REAL Winter set up shop and the EPS is signaling what I've been planning on, that being, a storm system coming out of the Rockies and into the Plains/MW along an Arctic Front.  This should be a fun period around the 11th-13th and could last for a couple or more weeks.

 

48 day cycle?

[Niko 7225]

Has anyone seen the latest GFS for next weekend.....Looks crazy! 960mb.....

[FAR_Weather 5214]

Woah.... Wet dream range GFS actually gives me flakes! 

[Tom 16870]

15 hours ago, Clinton said:

48 day cycle?

I'll post some similarities I'm seeing in the models from our current system tracking through the S Plains, the next one diving directly S out of Canada late next week and then the pattern between the 9th-13th.  I'm not 100% on this cycle just yet but I'm seriously leaning towards a 60-day cycle.  Almost identical to last year's cycle length.  I looked at the 40-day cycle you mentioned Gary is thinking and I cannot find a reason why that would be the case.  I looked at several storm systems that we just experienced and they did not line up.  Remember back in early October when I posted maps of troughs that tracked into Cali???   And when there was a period in early October where there was a cut-off trough near the Baja that swirled around and spun??  That part of the pattern is coming and the models are showing it in the extended.  

[Tom 16870]

Meantime, 00z EPS shifted the snow mean a bit west and N into NE...AND...that is not the last snow opportunity coming for ya'll out west!  #WinterIsComing

 

 

[FAR_Weather 5214]

13 minutes ago, Tom said:

Meantime, 00z EPS shifted the snow mean a bit west and N into NE...AND...that is not the last snow opportunity coming for ya'll out west!  #WinterIsComing

 

 

lol

[Tom 16870]

1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

lol

You had the snow magnet early on in the seaon and now it appears to be on hiatus!

[FAR_Weather 5214]

13 minutes ago, Tom said:

You had the snow magnet early on in the seaon and now it appears to be on hiatus!

I'd argue that the snow magnet was in the Twin Cities, and I got their scraps.

[Tom 16870]

Let's take a look back at what the Euro seasonal was forecasting for December...IMO, it's going to nail the blocking pattern in the N ATL/Greenland and in the SW, but the pattern near Alaska/NW NAMER will prob bust.  Tomorrow night the new seasonal model run comes out and I'm really curious to see the new data.

 

[tStacsh 70]

Another snowless December coming to Grand Rapids?   Winter doesn’t start until January here now.  

[Niko 7225]

As of now, December looks to be near to above normal (tempwise), at least in mby. We will see how this goes, but overall, I do not see an true arctic airmass in sight. Just near normal, to above, or slight below. Luckily, my average temps are below freezing as we go forward, deeper into this month, so precip should be all snow, relatively speaking.

[Hawkeye 4578]

The next central US system is crapping out on the models now.

[james1976 3976]

Looks like a boring 2 weeks. Hopefully mid month we get some action. 

[Grizzcoat 3783]

+AO and MJO phases not in our favor (3-4-5) are killing us now and for next 2 weeks. Pacific Air (though modified) and strong H pressure over Rockies = a plethora of nothingness for many of us. 

[Tom 16870]

5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

+AO and MJO phases not in our favor (3-4-5) are killing us now and for next 2 weeks. Pacific Air (though modified) and strong H pressure over Rockies = a plethora of nothingness for many of us. 

Where do you see a +AO???  I think the exact opposite is going to happen by the 13th as there are several indicators suggesting so.  Curious to hear your thoughts on this.  Are you focusing more on the MJO???

 

 

 

EURO MJO forecast...we did go through Phase 3/4 but now in the null phase...

 

[Grizzcoat 3783]

Now with +A0. And reaping the effects of it  from the past several weeks. MJO also. It takes sometime for teleconnecrions to show their colors, strong MJO might be an outlier in that. 

[Tom 16870]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

Now with +A0. And reaping the effects of it  from the past several weeks. MJO also. It takes sometime for teleconnecrions to show their colors, strong MJO might be an outlier in that. 

Ahh, I gotcha...I see what your saying...well, let's see if nature takes her sweet time or flips hard...I think the later will happen...

[whatitdo 131]

31 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Looks like a boring 2 weeks. Hopefully mid month we get some action. 

Probably will seeing that im out of town (SW michigan) from the 17-23rd lol. Mark it! 

[Tom 16870]

12z GEFS are pointing towards a flip towards a SW Flow aloft by the 11th and also tugging down the arctic chill...fun times ahead...I'm expecting it to get wetter/snowier as we get closer.  Remember how many times we saw those penetrating "blue northers" since late Sept???  Real Winter is coming for the central CONUS.

 

 

[Clinton 4408]

19 hours ago, Niko said:

Has anyone seen the latest GFS for next weekend.....Looks crazy! 960mb.....

12z euro still hanging in there with some light accumulation for KC area heavier out in Kansas.

[Stormhunter87 969]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z euro still hanging in there with some light accumulation for KC area heavier out in Kansas.

My buddy in hutch looking good for this.

[Niko 7225]

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z euro still hanging in there with some light accumulation for KC area heavier out in Kansas.

Hang in there bud....still plenty of changes to come for ya. Tomorrow it could show 2ft for yby

[Clinton 4408]

29 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS are pointing towards a flip towards a SW Flow aloft by the 11th and also tugging down the arctic chill...fun times ahead...I'm expecting it to get wetter/snowier as we get closer.  Remember how many times we saw those penetrating "blue northers" since late Sept???  Real Winter is coming for the central CONUS.

 

 

GEFS is starting to paint up.  It also is getting more bullish for the Wed and Thur system.

[Niko 7225]

Clouds have rapidly increased over my area now, lowering and thickening. Kinda has a milky look to it.

[jaster220 8342]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

GEFS is starting to paint up.  It also is getting more bullish for the Wed and Thur system.

Will you have cold air to work with?

[james1976 3976]

16 days of nothing for mby on GFS

[jaster220 8342]

39 minutes ago, james1976 said:

16 days of nothing for mby on GFS

Per Tom's 300 hr map, things turn a corner just beyond that time-frame fwiw.

[james1976 3976]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Per Tom's 300 hr map, things turn a corner just beyond that time-frame fwiw.

Yup a storm has been popping up around the 12-13th in the middle of the country. 

[Clinton 4408]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Will you have cold air to work with?

I believe so, but as is often the case here I will be sweating it.

[whatitdo 131]

I feel like Decembers have just been terrible these last couple of winters or so for much of the CONUS. Is there a explanation from verified meteorologists or atmospheric scientists why? Climate change? First third looks very meh. 

[OKwx2k4 4219]

On 11/28/2020 at 7:38 AM, Clinton said:

0z Euro and CMC both showing accumulating snow in mby later next week.  The GFS is still a nothing burger but some of the ensembles are catching on.  I marked this one as a 1-3 inch event for the KC area due to lack of moisture from the system currently heading towards the Ohio Valley.  Maybe this one can exceed expectations.

 

I'm trusting the models about as much as news and politics at this point but I hope to see something. If there's a chance I'd miss though, it may very well happen.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

In regards to the cycle that some were writing on....

It's complex but correct to say that there's both a 30 day and about a 46-50 day harmonic or vice versa depending on how you look at it. I think it was close to 45 at the onset but has gained a day or two since.

[Clinton 4408]

7 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

In regards to the cycle that some were writing on....

It's complex but correct to say that there's both a 30 day and about a 46-50 day harmonic or vice versa depending on how you look at it. I think it was close to 45 at the onset but has gained a day or two since.

I spent alot of time looking at this over the weekend and I think we have a 46 day cycle but will know a lot more in the next 10 days or so.  Tom has been working on this aswell and I bet he has a good idea on this. Good luck this week with whatever weather we are going to get this week.  As I thumb through the models this morning each one has a different solution.  Really hoping to pull an inch or 2 out of this.

[Clinton 4408]

Here is a write up from my office on this weeks small system.  (Fujiwana edition( lol.

The focus then shifts to the mid to late week slow moving mid level
trough, which until recent model runs appeared to move through wind
minimal consequence. ECMWF model has been pretty persistent in
forming plenty of precipitation, mainly along and south of HWY 36.
This appeared to be the outlier and only minimal PoPs existed in the
days 3-5 timeframe. However, now the GFS has latched onto a more
aggressive precipitation solution for Wednesday night through
Thursday. The exact evolution of this system is still very
uncertain, but one common and persistent feature in the Dprog/DT for
both ECMWF/GFS is that there will be plenty of cold air in the low
levels to support ice crystal production and maintenance to the
surface. This would mean at least some snowfall at the surface,
again mainly along and south of HWY 36. The big question then
becomes how aggressive the moisture transport to the north, feeding
the system will be, and how that will also transport warmer
temperatures. With the surface and H85 trough likely passing well to
the south of the immediate forecast area it would bring into play
the conceptual models of warm air having a hard time overcoming the
cold air advection within the northeast low level flow north of the
low level cyclone. We are still anticipating a rather low end winter
weather forecast with this system, however with the Dprog/DT being
generally more aggressive with precipitation and perhaps cooler air,
it`s possible we could see this system escalate as it approaches.
GFS forecast soundings from the 00z model run indicate a rather
efficient snow production thermal and moisture profile, with solid
saturation through the DGZ, and even with surface temperatures
likely residing in the lower to middle 30s indicates snow production
and maintenance. Also worth noting is that the GEFS ensemble doesn`t
give much chance to heavy accumulating snow, as only 2-3 members of
the 00z run indicate much more than a dusting. So this forecast
package will generally represent an increase in PoPs, lending to the
GFS being more aggressive, and maintenance of minimally accumulating
snowfall, likely in the dusting to 2 inch range at this point.
Again, things could change, and given the slow speed of this system
and what looks to be a hint of a Fujiwara Effect, there is an
outside chance this system increases in impacts.

[Tom 16870]

Models continue to support an active period for the 2nd weekend when the North American 500mb pattern amplifies and produces blocks in all the right places to put smiles on faces.  Should be an interesting week tracking another winter storm across parts of KS into the MW and then another one on the following weekend when I believe the Winter pattern will get started.

 

 

The LR clues are growing stronger and bolder that a SSW event is brewing over Siberia/Eurasia during the next 10 days.  Nearly a 30-40C reversal at 10mb should get the party started.

 

 

This is about as an ideal set up as you'd like to see, where you have the PV funnel frigid air into North America...perfect warming location at 10mb...reminiscent to '13-'14...#CrossPolarFlow

 

 

[Tom 16870]

50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I spent alot of time looking at this over the weekend and I think we have a 46 day cycle but will know a lot more in the next 10 days or so.  Tom has been working on this aswell and I bet he has a good idea on this. Good luck this week with whatever weather we are going to get this week.  As I thumb through the models this morning each one has a different solution.  Really hoping to pull an inch or 2 out of this.

I spent some time yesterday studying and analyzing the pattern and it's been one of the hardest ones yet!  LOL, I'll be honest, I need a few more days to see how the models handle the next cut-off system and the storm system the following weekend.  On top of that, I have a very busy day lined up today with work and personal stuff.  Nonetheless, I like where we are heading as the pattern gears up.

[Grizzcoat 3783]

Don't know how many Euro Control runs in a row have been like this but everyone I looked at over the long weekend showed the same hole (and pretty paltry elsewhere in the Upper Midwest) over the Central Plains. More than ready for a switch to white rather than brown. 

[Clinton 4408]

I like the direction the NAM is headed.

[Niko 7225]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I like the direction the NAM is headed.

Looks like that hvy batch on your west side might be headed towards you....

[Clinton 4408]

13 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like that hvy batch on your west side might be headed towards you....

I need it to get colder.  It kinda spins and fizzles.