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December 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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27 minutes ago, Niko said:

Attm, showers w temps at 39F

Hey Niko, while the CPC isn't outlining SEMI for hvy snow, I see the NAM and perhaps the GEM take the storm far enough west to include yby in the swath. That'd be a sweet gift for ya

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Seeing some familiar old NMI haunts made out nicely with today's Clipper. Snow-on-snow up north!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EST MON DEC 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             MANTON                  44.41N 85.40W
12/21/2020  E3.5 INCH        WEXFORD            MI   PUBLIC

            FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN AT TIMES AS WELL.
0745 PM     SNOW             1 NE NORTH HIGGINS LAKE 44.51N 84.71W
12/21/2020  M3.5 INCH        CRAWFORD           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER



0730 PM     SNOW             2 SSW GREILICKVILLE     44.78N 85.66W
12/21/2020  M2.5 INCH        LEELANAU           MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EVENT TOTAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS 7&4 TV
            STUDIOS.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Models are showing a system toward the end of the month passing through the midwest.  It is starved of moisture at first, but improves farther east.  The Euro tonight brings it together a bit earlier.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are showing a system toward the end of the month passing through the midwest.  It is starved of moisture at first, but improves farther east.  The Euro tonight brings it together a bit earlier.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Hits Chicago. That'll change, lol. (j/k)

GFS seems very similar tbh. #fingerscrossed

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm digging the pattern setting up shop across the central/eastern Sub post Christmas holiday.  Man, that blocking is looking impressive near Greenland that'll slow down the overall flow and systems are stacked right behind one another.  I'm not going to say who and where will be the prime winners but it does look likely that a lot of folks on here stand a very good chance to find themselves with back-to-back hits or snow-on-snow scenario.  The pattern is changing into a very favorable 500mb set up to allow enough cold air to produce snow storms.  Sharpin' those pencils as we will be tracking more systems and a potential Big Dog for the New Year holiday.

 

The next storm system on deck is showing up on the calendar (27th-28th) for the MW/GL's region...ensemble support is picking up on this system as well.  It's tough to say if Chicago and places nearby will end being an all snow or a rain to snow scenario.  Gotta see how the blocking sets up post Christmas holiday.  Models are going to struggle immensely with track/strength over the coming days tracking the next 2 systems on the calendar.

 

2.png

 

I see you Euro "Spread The Wealth"... @Clinton and KC crew, this one has eyes on you...

3.png

 

00z EPS with continued support for a widespread winter storm for the New Year holiday...esp those down across the Plains/S MW...

1.png

4.png

 

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It's becoming very clear the EPS (along with other models) have missed the NW NAMER ridge in the extended and the favorable trends continue to support the idea of higher heights to develop in this region post 21st/22nd and into the New Year.  Overnight 00z EPS guidance, including the CFSv2, are blossoming the NW NAMER ridge which into the extended and poking it up into the N Pole.  Let me tell ya, as we enter Jan '21, there is a lot of cold air brewing up for the lower 48 and if the storm parade I see forthcoming ends up laying down a blanket of snow across the nation, this could very well end up being one of the most impressive wintry patterns I've seen in years for the majority of our Sub.  I'm sure there will be pockets here and there that don't do as good as others, but the overall theme is for sustained winter to take shape.  Over the past few years, it felt like there were certain regions primarily in the western and northern Sub that benefited the most with snowy patterns.  Thankfully, the emergence of the Greenland Block, along with various other teleconnections, this winter has a different feel IMHO.  How badly did the climate models do with the blocking in their seasonal outlooks?  I recall that none of them saw the -NAO block for this month.  Now that we have gone through the entire month, how can you trust them as we enter the New Year?  You just don't and you have to rely on other LR forecasting methods.  I truly believe in the strat forecasts as they provide value and of course the LRC.

 

1.png

 

Looking ahead into Jan' 21, last night's Euro Weeklies suddenly flipped big time towards high lat blocking and generally has quite an active pattern across the central CONUS from a SW Flow pattern.  The snow drought stricken regions of the Rockies will make up in the snow dept in a hurry.

2.png

 

There is plenty to be excited about what lies ahead as the chances of getting hit by snow are increasing by the day.  Those who do end up receiving the "white gold" shouldn't have a problem keeping it around as temps will remain cold enough to allow the snow to stick around for a while.  I do not see any abrupt warm spells in the extend due to the pattern blocking up and creating a sufficient pattern to "seed" cold down into the lower 48.  This is just a gut feeling, but I do foresee someone around the MW/GL's setting 1"+ snow cover records for longevity.  January is going to be quite an impressive month.

00z GEFS and the CPC boys are seeing the wetter and likely snowier pattern setting up shop...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

 

Latest 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm digging the pattern setting up shop across the central/eastern Sub post Christmas holiday.  Man, that blocking is looking impressive near Greenland that'll slow down the overall flow and systems are stacked right behind one another.  I'm not going to say who and where will be the prime winners but it does look likely that a lot of folks on here stand a very good chance to find themselves with back-to-back hits or snow-on-snow scenario.  The pattern is changing into a very favorable 500mb set up to allow enough cold air to produce snow storms.  Sharpin' those pencils as we will be tracking more systems and a potential Big Dog for the New Year holiday.

 

The next storm system on deck is showing up on the calendar (27th-28th) for the MW/GL's region...ensemble support is picking up on this system as well.  It's tough to say if Chicago and places nearby will end being an all snow or a rain to snow scenario.  Gotta see how the blocking sets up post Christmas holiday.  Models are going to struggle immensely with track/strength over the coming days tracking the next 2 systems on the calendar.

 

2.png

 

I see you Euro "Spread The Wealth"... @Clinton and KC crew, this one has eyes on you...

3.png

 

00z EPS with continued support for a widespread winter storm for the New Year holiday...esp those down across the Plains/S MW...

1.png

4.png

 

Exciting times ahead, I'm still amazed by the consistency of the models in reguards to the big storm at the end of the year.  I expect we will see the storm on the 27th-28th strengthen over the next several days.  Could be a nice one for the I-80 corridor, and I am stoked at what I'm seeing on the 30th.  The storm due in on the 30th did produce severe weather in Nov. so I expect it to be stout.

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Still at .4” after yesterday’s whiff on the forecast.  I’ve seen for weeks fantasy totals of snow here.  0 percent have panned out.  I no longer trust any forecast until the day it happens.  Otherwise it’s just eye candy.  It hasn’t even got a pattern right!   

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It is now official. What I have been talking about now for several days is now official 2020 will be the latest that GR has gone without a total snow fall of 1" the old record was set in 1998. It should be noted that in the winter of 1998/99 that it turned sharply colder on December 22nd and that 7.5" of snow did fall that December and in January of 1999 46.8" fell that month with 40.6" falling in 12 days from the 2nd to the 13th.  The total snow fall that season was 76.7" with 48.8 in January and 14.8 of that falling in March. At this time it is cloudy and 34 here at my house.

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18 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Still at .4” after yesterday’s whiff on the forecast.  I’ve seen for weeks fantasy totals of snow here.  0 percent have panned out.  I no longer trust any forecast until the day it happens.  Otherwise it’s just eye candy.  It hasn’t even got a pattern right!   

Unless it changes the Christmas lake effect now looks more like a NW flow event and for the Grand Rapids metro area that is not the best set  up. Areas tot he SW of GR with do much better than GR will. 

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 don't care how good the long range looks.. Dec 6th  or 10th...winter was supposed to show. its been a Dec. for the record books as it seems winter still isn't here. Seems like after 2 days of cold we head back to just above normal with no snow chances (locally) through 12-14 days. Just pitiful.

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Just now, Madtown said:

 don't care how good the long range looks.. Dec 6th  or 10th...winter was supposed to show. its been a Dec. for the record books as it seems winter still isn't here. Seems like after 2 days of cold we head back to just above normal with no snow chances (locally) through 12-14 days. Just pitiful.

Up north, yes, farther down south is where the storms will track...this Sub is so large its impossible to get everyone included in the fun and games unless a Clipper parade happens up north but that I don't see happening till sometime Week 1-2 in January as a more predominant NW Flow evolves.

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9 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Unless it changes the Christmas lake effect now looks more like a NW flow event and for the Grand Rapids metro area that is not the best set  up. Areas tot he SW of GR with do much better than GR will. 

Yeah I'm hoping it swings more Westerly. Here in Hudsonville area, we sometimes do well with NW or WNW flow, but usually it is Zealand to the West and South through Allegan. At this point though, I would be happy with an inch or two.

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28 minutes ago, Tom said:

Up north, yes, farther down south is where the storms will track...this Sub is so large its impossible to get everyone included in the fun and games unless a Clipper parade happens up north but that I don't see happening till sometime Week 1-2 in January as a more predominant NW Flow evolves.

I agree, but after some hype this December goes down as one of the least snowy in Northern WI

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4 minutes ago, Madtown said:

I agree, but after some hype this December goes down as one of the least snowy in Northern WI

Who knows how it will finish up north but members south of say WI/MN line will end up doing quite well when Dec is all sudden done.  For the most part, there will be a lot of members on here that scored a decent amount of Dec snowfall.  There's always hits and misses on here bc our Sub is so expansive.  Can't share in the wealth for all.

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11 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

2-3" looking good here tomorrow into tomorrow night. Santa will be happy with snow and wind chills down to around -20 on Christmas Eve night. Will finally be able to plow the skating rink on the lake. Winter, commence....part II. 

The wind/snow combo is gonna be awesome. Can't wait to get up there and enjoy it.

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9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hey Niko, while the CPC isn't outlining SEMI for hvy snow, I see the NAM and perhaps the GEM take the storm far enough west to include yby in the swath. That'd be a sweet gift for ya

Indeed...I saw that amigo.....RGEM/RDPS went west as well, but I gotta tell ya, 12z RGEM looks sweet for SEMI. Hope it verifies: 👇

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020122212/rgem_asnow_us_77.png&key=d88d5a968e62afb95f16d2d7fbab28eebbbcc5c6cb7331a44279ebdaac4b087a

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Unless it changes the Christmas lake effect now looks more like a NW flow event and for the Grand Rapids metro area that is not the best set  up. Areas tot he SW of GR with do much better than GR will. 

I do notice some models rotate some energy to enhance the snow Saturday with a more WSW wind that bring some snow for 131.  

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2 hours ago, james1976 said:

Nice! Can't wait for the Euro. 12z suite should be fully sampled now.

 12z King with a 5-6” hit over the metro at 10:1. MPX thinking as high as 15:1 with the arctic air plunging in. So, I think we’re in business. Grizz and James...come on up! Timing is everything! 

 

Edit: 3-5" now in the point with a high of 5F on Christmas Eve. 

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The 12z Euro really stepped backward with the first post-xmas system.  It is weak and does not get any moisture until well east of Iowa.

The big end-of-year system is still there, though.  That's the one to watch.  The gulf should be wide open.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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43 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

 12z King with a 5-6” hit over the metro at 10:1. MPX thinking as high as 15:1 with the arctic air plunging in. So, I think we’re in business. Grizz and James...come on up! Timing is everything! 

 

Edit: 3-5" now in the point with a high of 5F on Christmas Eve. 

That is awesomeness!!

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5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Dear Jesus, if you let the 12z Euro be correct for next weeks storm, I promise to build several churches in your name. 😯 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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