December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Tom 15794]

Merry Christmas everyone!  Yes, it's been a challenging year, but today is one of those holidays where we can all rejoice the celebration of this special holiday.  Whatever your religion may be, I hope you all can enjoy a bit of light in your life today with family and friends.  Much love to all!

 

[CentralNebWeather 3903]

Merry Christmas to all. Here is my family. My daughter is a college sophomore, my son a high school freshman, and my lovely wife is a 5th grade Language Arts teacher. Photo taken in November. 

[Clinton 3683]

Merry Christmas everybody!

[Niko 6895]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Merry White Christmas amigo. EnJOY it Niko. Happened here in '02 but I was out of town

Merry Christmas to you too amigo!

Thanks..perfect timing to get a nice snowevent.

Winter Wonderland out there w over 2 inches and counting.

[Niko 6895]

Merry Christmas to everyone!

Its a Winter Wonderland here in SEMI today w 2.1 inches in the Macomb area and 1.4" for Detroit so far. Totals are not done yet, as the snow will continue all day and into early evening.

Temp attm is a frigid 19F w light snow.

Per NOAA:

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

DISCUSSION...

A White Christmas is underway for much of Southeast Michigan this
morning as the westernmost expanse of the system tracking over the
eastern Great Lakes clips the area. Specifically, northeasterly
system-relative flow has activated isentropic ascent along the
elevated frontal slope positioned overhead at about 500 to 700 mb
while deformation forcing contributes to ascent as well. The
elevated frontal zone reorients over the course of the day today as
the 500mb closed low tracks east along the Ohio River, effectively
pivoting the region of ascent and light snow over the eastern CWA
over the next 12 to 15 hours or so.

[Niko 6895]

NOAA:
UPDATE...

Southeast Michigan remains squarely within the arcing deformation
axis late this morning, this ascent manifesting within the cyclonic
northern expanse of the closed mid level circulation now ejecting
through the lower Ohio valley. Solid period of moist isentropic
ascent at 700-500 mb within easterly flow proved quite efficient
overnight in generating a respectible response, but will fade with
time going forward as reorientation of the upper height field forces
a steady backing of mid level flow to northerly.

As low level flow slowly backs to westerly,
some degree of downstream expansion of ongoing activity tucked along
the lake Michigan shoreline remains a possibility - centered this
evening/early tonight (21z-03z). This will afford those areas
generally between the I-94 and I-69 corridors a secondary window for
meaningful accumulation, albeit as a more transient/localized
opportunity.

[FAR_Weather 4972]

Merry Christmas from Southern California!

[snowstorm83 1486]

Merry Christmas everybody. Unfortunately there was an intentional explosion in downtown Nashville this morning. I was born there and still have a lot of a family so that’s sad to see. I don’t believe there’s anyone hurt so that’s good. 

[Niko 6895]

Currently light to moderate snow w temps near 20F. Did not go out to check accumulations, but from just eye balling it, I am guessing over 3inches. I will go out and measure later. I am also getting blowing snow as well. Winds are quite gusty.

[chances14 61]

woke up this morning to a surprise 2" otg and on/off snow showers all day. Nice little Christmas present 

[westMJim 1751]

I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas. Just in time for Christmas Grand Rapids received its inch of snow fall and thus gave Grand Rapids a white Christmas. So as of now Grand Rapids official December snow fall total is 1.2" and the total for the season is now at 1.6" That is still 23.8" below average for this time of the year. It looks like there will be a rain/snow mix for the next two systems in our area so we should end December above average in the temperature department and well below average in the snow fall department. At the current time the temperature is 23 with some very light snow falling at times.

[OmahaSnowFan 1027]

Down to 2.7 degrees on my weather station this morning.

 

[Niko 6895]

So far..Macomb has picked up 3" and still counting. Radar looks good. This snowevent here could end as a 4+incher, which is terrific. Leaning towards 3.5", but later on tanite, LM will provide the goods as the westerlies kick in and my area could be in the path of some LES.

 

[OKwx2k4 3932]

Looking like lukewarm variance and boredom is the rule here the next 10 days for the time being. I'm learning slowly that not every year is "gonna be that year" to a lot of folks and I'm sure I gave that image to some as well.

I guess what I'm saying is that sometimes the weather just is that. Normal and weather. This could very well just end up like a normal winter and sometimes normal and boring is exactly what we need.

God bless everyone and very merry Christmas to you all.

[jaster220 8112]

15 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA:
UPDATE...

Southeast Michigan remains squarely within the arcing deformation
axis late this morning, this ascent manifesting within the cyclonic
northern expanse of the closed mid level circulation now ejecting
through the lower Ohio valley. Solid period of moist isentropic
ascent at 700-500 mb within easterly flow proved quite efficient
overnight in generating a respectible response, but will fade with
time going forward as reorientation of the upper height field forces
a steady backing of mid level flow to northerly.

As low level flow slowly backs to westerly,
some degree of downstream expansion of ongoing activity tucked along
the lake Michigan shoreline remains a possibility - centered this
evening/early tonight (21z-03z). This will afford those areas
generally between the I-94 and I-69 corridors a secondary window for
meaningful accumulation, albeit as a more transient/localized
opportunity.

Hope y'all did have a Merry Christmas, I surely did. And because my fam on the east side was hosting, I got in on the surprise white Christmas over there in SEMI (Saginaw Cnty). Had on/off snow falling all day with the burst of westerly flow LES mentioned above hitting later after dark. Was coming down moderately as in "a virtual snow globe" when heading back. Must've been 2" around that region and still snowing nicely. Freeway was snow-covered so got my first true winter driving conditions of the season. Managed to score a bit more here in Marshall I see, as SHSN was intermittent til about 7:15 this evening. Looks like 1/2" total, so my hunch of 2" not happening ended up correct. Still, considering how mild it was just a day ago (46F at midnight 12/24) this was certainly much better than just brown & grey. Did some looking around at reports from the LES event and looks like IWX's area will take the prize with 15" totals in Berrien Cnty. Snagged this nice photo from where I used to live in S. Bend as a reminder of what a real storm looks like. You know, the kind where plows are required and such:

 

 

 

[jaster220 8112]

On 12/24/2020 at 7:40 AM, westMJim said:

Yesterdays official high of 53 (I had a high of 54 here at my house) was the 3rd warmest day of record at Grand Rapids for any December 23rd The high tied 1979 and 1957 for 3rd place. The record high of 60 was recorded in 2015 and in 2nd place is a high of 57 set 1982 and 1941. There was around a 0.25” of rain fall late yesterday and overnight. Currently light snow if falling but so far just a dusting here at my house. The current temperature is 22.

Apparently, something in common with hot days before Christmas, and arctic outbreaks that treats S. Bend really, really well. This record event posting was later increased. Awaiting the final numbers on their snowiest Christmas ever.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
431 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2020

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT SOUTH BEND...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 11.8 INCHES WAS SET AT SOUTH BEND TODAY. THIS 
SNOWFALL TOTAL WAS THROUGH 400 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BREAKS 
THE OLD RECORD OF 6.0 INCHES SET IN 2015 FOR DECEMBER 25TH.

[tStacsh 24]

Meanwhile here in GR officially 1.6” of snow thus year.   We are the snow hole.  

[Niko 6895]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hope y'all did have a Merry Christmas, I surely did. And because my fam on the east side was hosting, I got in on the surprise white Christmas over there in SEMI (Saginaw Cnty). Had on/off snow falling all day with the burst of westerly flow LES mentioned above hitting later after dark. Was coming down moderately as in "a virtual snow globe" when heading back. Must've been 2" around that region and still snowing nicely. Freeway was snow-covered so got my first true winter driving conditions of the season. Managed to score a bit more here in Marshall I see, as SHSN was intermittent til about 7:15 this evening. Looks like 1/2" total, so my hunch of 2" not happening ended up correct. Still, considering how mild it was just a day ago (46F at midnight 12/24) this was certainly much better than just brown & grey. Did some looking around at reports from the LES event and looks like IWX's area will take the prize with 15" totals in Berrien Cnty. Snagged this nice photo from where I used to live in S. Bend as a reminder of what a real storm looks like. You know, the kind where plows are required and such:

 

 

 

Excellent. Here the roads were a mess where I am at. Salt didnt do much w such cold temps. Finally, December is acting like it should be.

[Niko 6895]

Attm, its 23F under cloudy skies. Its a Winter Wonderland out there.

[westMJim 1751]

At

49 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Meanwhile here in GR officially 1.6” of snow thus year.   We are the snow hole.  

Unless Grand Rapids records 3.7" before midnight on the 31st GR will set a new record low for the start of any winter season. the current record is 5.3" set in the 1905/06 winter season. If GR indeed gets to that point we would be well on the way to a record low total seasonal snow fall

[tStacsh 24]

15 minutes ago, westMJim said:

At

Unless Grand Rapids records 3.7" before midnight on the 31st GR will set a new record low for the start of any winter season. the current record is 5.3" set in the 1905/06 winter season. If GR indeed gets to that point we would be well on the way to a record low total seasonal snow fall

Unless the Canadian is correct, it’s almost assured we will not get there.  

[jaster220 8112]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Meanwhile here in GR officially 1.6” of snow thus year.   We are the snow hole.  

Ultimate Screw Zone by deficit perhaps, but Chicago and others have had even less actual snowfall to date.

[jaster220 8112]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Meanwhile here in GR officially 1.6” of snow thus year.   We are the snow hole.  

Unless you live at the airport in GR, chances are you saw more snow over the past couple days. You wanna see a snow hole? Look here.

 

[tStacsh 24]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Unless you live at the airport in GR, chances are you saw more snow over the past couple days. You wanna see a snow hole? Look here.

 

I live there.  So basically same amount as airport lol 

[Niko 6895]

Temps remained in the 20s today under mostly cloudy skies along w a fresh snowpack. Lows tanite dipping in the upper teens.

[Hawkeye 3979]

All models are showing a nice burst of snow here around 3-4pm Sunday.  Maybe we can get an inch out of it.

[FAR_Weather 4972]

Fargo is getting decent clipper returns right now. I'm still in SoCal but I fly home tonight.

[Hawkeye 3979]

What's the deal with the NWS forecast?  I already don't like the way it's always "chance of X before 10am, then X and Y between 10 and 1pm, then Z after 1pm".  Today's forecast says rain and snow this afternoon, even though models show all snow and DVN's discussion has no mention of rain.  For Tuesday and Wednesday, models are mostly changing my area to mix or even rain, and DVN's discussion confirms that, but the actual forecast has all snow with 4-8".  It makes no sense at all.

[Hawkeye 3979]

Models generally suggest 0.5-1.0" of snow falling here this afternoon.  The 12k NAM is up to 2".  Models are also showing the possibility of a very narrow band of several inches somewhere from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin.

[bud2380 3190]

The NAM is showing 5+" directly overtop of Guttenberg, IA where my parents live.  Wow.  

 

[bud2380 3190]

3k NAM showing the same thing

 

 

[Clinton 3683]

6 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

3k NAM showing the same thing

 

 

You may have a good idea with a separate thread for the New Year's storm.

[St Paul Storm 3968]

NAM dropped the ball on today’s snow here. Showed virtually nothing until the 12z run but getting some nice steady snow this morning. 1-2” looking decent based on radar returns. 

[FAR_Weather 4972]

Fargo probably got 2-3" just judging by radar. Still coming down. 

 

 

[St Paul Storm 3968]

Already 1” down and still a few hours to go. Forecast called for less than 0.5”. Bust for the win. 

[westMJim 1751]

Here is where we stand as we head into the last few days of December and the year. At Grand Rapids the mean for December is 33.0 and that is a departure of +3.2° There has been just 1.2” of snow fall in December and for the season just 1.6” that is just under 2 feet below average where GR should be for this date. Currently with a hazy sun thru clouds it is now up to 33 here at my house.

[james1976 3755]

27 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Already 1” down and still a few hours to go. Forecast called for less than 0.5”. Bust for the win. 

Yup at least an inch in Vadnais Heights so far. Nice refresher!! I'll be heading back.to Iowa later. Hopefully roads are decent.

[St Paul Storm 3968]

15 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Yup at least an inch in Vadnais Heights so far. Nice refresher!! I'll be heading back.to Iowa later. Hopefully roads are decent.

You got 2 snowfalls while you were in town! Not bad at all. And you’re likely heading home to yet another storm early this week. Safe travels! 

[james1976 3755]

29 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

You got 2 snowfalls while you were in town! Not bad at all. And you’re likely heading home to yet another storm early this week. Safe travels! 

Really nice snow up here today. Nice and steady, no wind. Definitely well over an inch so far.

[james1976 3755]

1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said:

Already 1” down and still a few hours to go. Forecast called for less than 0.5”. Bust for the win. 

Kinda feel like they could have issued a WWA judging by the radar and the current 1 1/2"

[St Paul Storm 3968]

Just now, james1976 said:

Kinda feel like they could have issued a WWA judging by the radar the current 1 1/2"

Yeah I was just typing the same thing! This is overperforming. We’re going to exceed 2” at this pace. 

[St Paul Storm 3968]

Some convective-looking returns moving in from the west before the snow tapers off. 

[hlcater 1225]

Little ZR/IP earlier. Just enough to glaze the roads. Switched over to a very picturesque snow. An inch would be nice?

[Hawkeye 3979]

Just now, hlcater said:

Little ZR/IP earlier. Just enough to glaze the roads. Switched over to a very picturesque snow. An inch would be nice?

I was just about to post that.  I don't think we'll be getting much snow accum.

[james1976 3755]

I do not like the new NWS radar. I think a couple members posted about that recently. 

[Sparky 1534]

Almost heavy snow falling currently with that little yellow blob on COD radar right overhead.

[Sparky 1534]

41 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I do not like the new NWS radar. I think a couple members posted about that recently. 

I don’t like it at all. Takes longer to load as well.

[Hawkeye 3979]

Pretty nice burst of snow now in CR.

[East Dubzz 1268]

Definitely a nice little snowfall. Have to be approaching / at an inch already I’d think?

[hlcater 1225]

Finished the day with an overperforming 1.2"