December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

Well the storm finally gets its act together, but it's up to hour 288, LOL.  Always reliable at this range.  This has all the looks of a complex system ejecting out in multiple pieces.  The main hope at this point is in a few days that models are still latching onto the idea of a storm at all.  We've seen them come and go from this point frequently.  

 

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

30th anniversary of a great midwest blizzard.  One I remember fondly.  School was cancelled for 2 days.  I was only 10 so I don't know how much snow we got, but based on this map, it was in the neighborhood of a foot. Dubuque reported 15" and I lived about 40 miles NW of there.  

I was 16 years old, but I just don't remember storms that far back anymore.  I see Cedar Rapids officially received 9.8", so it was just another *struggle to get 10"* storm for us.

[Niko]

32 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It's like 14 days out. Normally I'd feel comfortable saying "never want to be in the bullseye 10 days out". But, we either have mojo working for us or we don't. If not, this LR map will be accurate, or the storm just won't happen, or be weak sauce. As for being satisfied with anything. Not gonna lie. If I see peeps getting huge hits left and right and I can't scrape up a plow-worthy hit, I won't be a happy camper.

Kinda reminds me of that Winter season ( cant remember which yr though, let me know if you do ) when I was getting clipper after clipper and were intensifying once in SEMI, meanwhile, your part  of town was on the weaker side. I think it might have been 2016 or 17.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Well the storm finally gets its act together, but it's up to hour 288, LOL.  Always reliable at this range.  This has all the looks of a complex system ejecting out in multiple pieces.  The main hope at this point is in a few days that models are still latching onto the idea of a storm at all.  We've seen them come and go from this point frequently.  

 

This complex set up looks eerily similar to back on Oct 24th-30th where there were 2 pieces of energy, one weaker piece and then the main Kaboot that phased with Hurricane Delta.

[Hawkeye]

Levi Cowan has announced that the HRRR on Tropical Tidbits has been upgraded to v4.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

This complex set up looks eerily similar to back on Oct 24th-30th where there were 2 pieces of energy, one weaker piece and then the main Kaboot that phased with Hurricane Delta.

Exactly.  No hurricane this time, remember we all wondered if the moisture would work further north next cycle without a hurricane to pull the moisture east.

[mlgamer]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Exactly.  No hurricane this time, remember we all wondered if the moisture would work further north next cycle without a hurricane to pull the moisture east.

Yep Clinton...I've been looking forward to this system cycling back through without hurricane Delta. I'm still concerned it may miss me to the south and east again in future cycles for whatever reason, but we'll see.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Yep Clinton...I've been looking forward to this system cycling back through without hurricane Delta. I'm still concerned it may miss me to the south and east again in future cycles for whatever reason, but we'll see.

No doubt it would be best for you if it came through all in one piece which it might I think it's important to remember that just because it came out as a cut off low the last time in pieces does not mean it necessarily will this time

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

per Bill Steffen on his blog we had 52% of sun.  28% is normal.  

I see that. and that comes from the NWS and that is for Grand Rapids. And they now have changed that in their November summery. Still no report in the summery for Lansing where 16 clear days were reported. The % of monthly sunshine is not one of the records that are well kept. As far as I can tell the record for November for the most is 56.6% in 1939 with the least being 5.1% in 1992.

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No doubt it would be best for you if it came through all in one piece which it might I think it's important to remember that just because it came out as a cut off low the last time in pieces does not mean it necessarily will this time

During that period back in Oct, we had a sky high +AO and +NAO with a -PNA.  We obviously lacked the blocking back then, but this time we have it available.  Would love to see it all come out at once or at the very least hang back most of the energy and produce a large scale storm.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

During that period back in Oct, we had a sky high +AO and +NAO with a -PNA.  We obviously lacked the blocking back then, but this time we have it available.  Would love to see it all come out at once or at the very least hang back most of the energy and produce a large scale storm.

Me too, my biggest worry with this system is that it would produce a mega ice storm like it did in Oklahoma City back in Oct.  I would much rather the cold air be deeper and get the white gold.

[Grizzcoat]

26 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I see that. and that comes from the NWS and that is for Grand Rapids. And they now have changed that in their November summery. Still no report in the summery for Lansing where 16 clear days were reported. The % of monthly sunshine is not one of the records that are well kept. As far as I can tell the record for November for the most is 56.6% in 1939 with the least being 5.1% in 1992.

You can file "% of monthly sunshine is not one of the records that are well kept" to the advent of automation and the push for it by the NWS and the FAA. Fully Auto ASOS's don't "see" clouds above 12,000'. Some AWOS sites are starting to but are poor at coverage amounts (ie. BKN vs. SCT etc) Sites that have a human observer that augments the ASOS unit will obviously show more clouds (middle to high clouds) and thus less "available sunshine" than stand alone sites.

[Niko]

Something on the way for OKwx perhaps.........

[bud2380]

Euro stays boring. 

[bud2380]

Euro does have a SLP developing at hour 240, but it's very weak.  

 

[GDR]

[mlgamer]

Hopefully things start picking up soon...lots of possibilities coming up it would seem.

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, GDR said:

For ensembles that far out, this is pretty decent agreement.  Hopefully this is the start of more exciting times ahead.  I feel like we haven't had a white Christmas in awhile around here.  It would be nice to have one for a change. 

[Niko]

Jaster:

Not sure if you are included in this snow potential.....but check this out from NOAA:

Quote: The 12Z model suite continue to a show robust mid level positive PV
anomaly rotating across Lower Mi Fri morning from the
north/northwest. This wave will drive a fairly strong, albeit brief,
period of large scale ascent that will be aided by the exit region
of an upper jet max. This forcing should be sufficient enough in
overcoming the dry air to moisten the column and produce a region of
snow. Steep mid level lapse rates also raises some concern that this
system may overachieve a little. The 12Z NAM is a bit of an outlier
by driving the wave and better dynamics into the I-94 corridor. The
other solutions maintain the strongest forcing from the northern
Detroit Suburbs up through the thumb, in line with the current
forecast. At this stage in the forecast, pops will be increased a
bit, especially in the north, and the mention of minor snow
accumulations will be added late Thurs night into Fri morning. If
current trends on the GFS and Euro hold, it is possible that some
locals may pick up an inch or two.

[Minny_Weather]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

Something on the way for OKwx perhaps.........

Wrong side of the state.

[bud2380]

GFS pretty consistent with this lead storm coming through, while the 500mb trough just hangs out in the SW US.

 

[Madtown]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS pretty consistent with this lead storm coming through, while the 500mb trough just hangs out in the SW US.

 

Rainer in the northwoods in mid December....ugh

[bud2380]

The storm takes so long to get it's act together that all the cold air retreats this run and it turns into a huge rain and ice maker. Barf.  Hopefully that doesn't happen. 

 

  

[bud2380]

By hour 300 cold air wraps back in, but the storm tracks right through Iowa.  Pretty good consistency the past few runs for a storm that is so far out.  These cut off SW lows though will take several days for models to resolve, so this is obviously futile at this point, but still fun to watch.  

[Grizzcoat]

That off hour ( 18/6Z) guidances even show a trough at this range is huge. Focus now should be on a trough, ( if any) E of the Rockies , ( cyclogenesis?) Location will take a week + or so to even come close.   

[GDR]

Good old Iowa low Magnet and it’s best

[Niko]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Wrong side of the state.

D**n! Would have liked to see our pal get some appreciable snows......

[whatitdo]

Will be off the wall annoyed should this verify tbh

[Niko]

Currently at 35F under clear skies. Gorgeous evening out there. Lows tanite in the 20s, seasonable for this time of the year. Foreseeable looks seasonable, nothing extreme and quiet weather to dominate.

[Wheezer]

29 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Will be off the wall annoyed should this verify tbh

They said the exact opposite yesterday at hour 348.  Models are sensing a pattern change mid month,  but until we get within 10 days , I wouldn't worry one way or the other.  Some good signs down the road for sure,  but the most important one will be a -EPO,  and not for just a day or two, it has to sustain to fill Canada with a fresh arctic air mass and eventually the lower 48.  If not marginal to slightly below normal temps will rule 

[Niko]

As far as the "Nor'Easter" goes, those on the coast will see wet weather and those that do wanna see accumulating snow will have to be at least 1000’ up in those NW areas. Just not enough cold air for my buddies there on the coastline. Too bad this will be a miss for mby here in MI, but anything can happen ( for the EC that is ), though as models are not agreeing w each other yet, but it looks like an inland snowevent for them. Maine and Vermont get crushed!

 

[Madtown]

In Northern WI--------old timers used to say if the deer had a lot of fat it was going to be a lot of snow. Really long hair meant cold. The deer I helped cut up last week had both, longer hair and a lot of fat.

 

 

I'm riding that deers forecast 

[tStacsh]

Warm warm warm.  Pattern change not until 12-14 days.  Might take a Rainer to happen.  

[jaster220]

GRR

Quote

-- No impactful weather til later next week--

Meanwhile our upper air pattern looks like it will continue to
retrograde over the next week or so. Each Pacific shortwave
tracking east in the North Pacific wave train will dig into the
eastern trough but each time pull it back west a few degrees of
longitude. Each of these will bring a weak front through and it
would not be out of the question to get more flurries with each
system. However by late next week we finally get a strong enough
system to pull the trough axis near Southwest Michigan. It is at
that point we will start seeing more meaningful snowfall and much
colder temperatures.

 

[Jaycee]

Nothing is more depressing than all the leaves gone — brown, dead grass, cold, and it being dark by 4:30pm, Let alone during a god awful pandemic. Hope things come around soon, I feel like it’s been awhile since I’ve had a white Christmas

[Tom]

Today's JMA weeklies are summed up in one phrase..."Yo-yo"...The Good???  Week 2 looks cold and wintry for most of the central/northern Sub.....The Bad???  Week 3-4 have flipped very Warm...MJO has gone into warmer phases...

 

Week 2...

Temp & Precip pattern suggesting a colder look that can support a wintry outlook knifing down into the S Plains up into the MW...

 

 

Week 3-4...The Ugly...

Temp and Precip pattern...Blow Torch...

 

The 2nd half of December is highly in question due to a couple of reasons and one being if there is a SSW event.  I've learned in the past that during a SSW event the models tend to be erratic.  That's not to say they are wrong with their forecast but I've seen them flip back and forth quite often in the LR.  The big change in the JMA Weeklies out past Week 2 is the pattern near AK/W NAMER that has a major trough (+EPO).  I'm curious to see tonights Euro Weeklies if they to trend this way, if so, then it'll be a brown and warm holiday stretch.  On the flip side, it could be a head fake and just another day in the office of analyzing data.  Is it believable???  Based on the LRC and the BSR, I'm not completely sold on this idea.  Not to mention, the location of the SSW event is in an ideal location and appears to be growing in consensus among the models.  Can't script it better than the 00z GEFS below...

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Got to thinking about how I see the pattern evolving without looking at models and just 25 years in the field and gut instinct. It will be around 3 weeks here in C.IA from last precip event to the next potential one.  The pattern until then is above avg - especially most, if not all, of next week, with strong Pacific High pressure dominating, This leads me to think that the next bought of precip is almost certainly going to be rain - maybe rain to snow- before enough cold air is around for a successor system to be all snow.  I don't expect any cold the holds ( more than 5F below normal)  more than day or two until sometime end of the month or even early JAN.  This is for C.IA.

[Grizzcoat]

Until (if?)  the snow pack builds - it's going to be very difficult to get cold that holds. And if systems behave like they should based on the lack of snow cover where there should  be (never does, but just saying)  in S.CAN and Dakotas etc, that means rain at first for many. I knew the region had a lack of snow cover but the extant really surprised me.

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Until (if?)  the snow pack builds - it's going to be very difficult to get cold that holds. And if systems behave like they should based on the lack of snow cover where there should  be (never does, but just saying)  in S.CAN and Dakotas etc, that means rain at first for many. I knew the region had a lack of snow cover but the extant really surprised me.

I agree, we need nature to fill up those snow holes up north first and it looks like it may be heading that way by next weekend.  I do recall this happening back in the Autumn, let's see if it can repeat the pattern and then head down south.

[OKwx2k4]

17 hours ago, Niko said:

Something on the way for OKwx perhaps.........

I wish. Big ol whiff. This pattern is going 2008ish on me. Gonna get rolled by an ice storm out here in a month to 45 days if this keeps up. Still holding onto intense winter starting late month and being harsh in January thru the opener of February.

Still have the monster transient ridge episode making its ugly rounds in the coming weeks. Blegh....