December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

46 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

For those of us on here that understand that these maps illustrate nothing more than a potential storm at the time frames listed, I think they are useful and valuable.  They become a problem when people who don't know any better spread them over social media and people act like it's a forecast.  

I think the argument that they are misleading is valid as well. Could just say "snow" or "heavy snow" for various regions on an extended map. TWC did that back in the 80's for example. It's a useless tease seeing 20" of snow in yby 10+ days out. Not to mention, folks ARE free to express their opinion about models.

[bud2380]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think the argument that they are misleading is valid as well. Could just say "snow" or "heavy snow" for various regions on an extended map. TWC did that back in the 80's for example. It's a useless tease seeing 20" of snow in yby 10+ days out. Not to mention, folks ARE free to express their opinion about models.

You're never going to stop people from doing or saying stupid things, but that doesn't mean the rest of us that can properly understand and interpret these maps shouldn't be able to see the raw output.  That's my opinion. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Last night's Euro Weeklies turned out to be rather ugly...there's no sugar coating it, the reversal in the EPO towards a positive state floods the CONUS with warmth.  NW NAMER trough is the dagger towards any sustained cold.  The Holidays are not looking pretty.

 

I lived in South Bend during December of '98 when one summer annual flower was still in bloom on the 19th of that overly warm winter month. That's pretty crazy when I think back on it! It was a period in my life when I was taking a break from following winter so it didn't bother me much. Having moved south after 7 years of mostly harsh winters in NMI we got the 97-98 Mega-Nino, and I was enjoying the respite from long snow seasons of the Northland. I was working my plans for an in-ground swimming pool the following summer so the focus was on the warm season. Ofc, the AN regime did eventually end with the arrival of that historic 2-wk stretch for SMI, kicked-off with the awesome bliz. I'm holding onto that 98-99 analog card in hopes it plays at some point (88-89 & 11-12 remaining in my back pocket).

This is the only legit storm around here so far during the LRC, and I even commented how much it reminded me of the bliz of '99 in it's structure. Just replace all those wind headlines with wintry precip headlines, voila! Any ideas on what date range this might fall into with the presumed LRC as it stands?

 

[jaster220]

13 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

You're never going to stop people from doing or saying stupid things, but that doesn't mean the rest of us that can properly understand and interpret these maps shouldn't be able to see the raw output.  That's my opinion. 

Which you are entitled to, as was the other poster to theirs, without being ridiculed. Now, back to your enjoyment of inaccurate forecast data..

[Niko]

It stays chilly (slightly BN ) throughout this weekend and until mid next week, then, warms up a little. Nothing extreme. No action until maybe next weekend. In the meantime relax and chill. Leave it to Ma Nature to sort this out. Winter has not even begun yet. Long way to go until Spring!

Currently at 38F under cloudy skies. Some snowshowers to my north.

Btw: Lake Huron lake effect will be to my north as well this weekend. Couple of inches for them.

[bud2380]

12z GFS shows the storm in day 8 and it’s gonna track through Iowa this run it appears. At least the storm is still showing up so confidence is increasing in a system. 

[bud2380]

Just not enough cold air on the GFS.  Very strong storm and lots of precip, but not a lot of snow considering the strength of the storm. 

 

 

[james1976]

Iowa low magnet in full force

[Clinton]

23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

12z GFS shows the storm in day 8 and it’s gonna track through Iowa this run it appears. At least the storm is still showing up so confidence is increasing in a system. 

GFS is to far north and hopefully to warm.  The CMC is closer as it  holds the main energy out west (which I like) but is still to far north as well.  GFS seems to be having trouble still with the -AO and -NAO.  Just my 2 cents lol.

[BMT]

33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Which you are entitled to, as was the other poster to theirs, without being ridiculed. Now, back to your enjoyment of inaccurate forecast data..

What do you suggest he post in a weather forum?  He is simply doing what the forum was made for.  Sharing data and speculating what might happen.  This is not a Craig situation which i believe your referencing. Keep doing you @bud2380

[bud2380]

Canadian is a little crazy this run.  Brings a lead wave of snow further south, then when the secondary, and stronger piece, comes out, it shifts further northwest.  

 

[Hawkeye]

There's just not enough cold out ahead of any storms.  We need a base of snow to be put down over the northern plains and Minnesota.

[Stacsh]

My grass is still pretty green.  Probably due to having only about 4 hours of .4" snowfall total this year on them.  

[Grizzcoat]

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

There's just not enough cold out ahead of any storms.  We need a base of snow to be put down over the northern plains and Minnesota.

Exactly what I said and posted maps of the other day. More truth to it than meets the eye...

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I lived in South Bend during December of '98 when one summer annual flower was still in bloom on the 19th of that overly warm winter month. That's pretty crazy when I think back on it! It was a period in my life when I was taking a break from following winter so it didn't bother me much. Having moved south after 7 years of mostly harsh winters in NMI we got the 97-98 Mega-Nino, and I was enjoying the respite from long snow seasons of the Northland. I was working my plans for an in-ground swimming pool the following summer so the focus was on the warm season. Ofc, the AN regime did eventually end with the arrival of that historic 2-wk stretch for SMI, kicked-off with the awesome bliz. I'm holding onto that 98-99 analog card in hopes it plays at some point (88-89 & 11-12 remaining in my back pocket).

This is the only legit storm around here so far during the LRC, and I even commented how much it reminded me of the bliz of '99 in it's structure. Just replace all those wind headlines with wintry precip headlines, voila! Any ideas on what date range this might fall into with the presumed LRC as it stands?

 

I'm expecting it to return around NYE or right after the New Year...welcome 2021???

[Niko]

I found a storm......just have to be in the right spot for that particular Nor'easter to get snow. So, if you are inland..your golden. If on the coast, looks like rain and wind this time. No cold air around. Although, position of the low is excellent for big snows for the coastline, but not happening this time. Lack of cold!

 

 

[Niko]

Attm, its 43F under mostly cloudy skies. I just saw from my homeoffice window that I still have a couple of patches of snow remaining. W colder air coming over the weekend as the CF slides through, they are not budging. 

[Hawkeye]

The 12z Euro is similar to the GFS, has a strong low tracking northeast through Iowa.

[bud2380]

Iowa low magnet wins again on the Euro.

 

[Hawkeye]

Frankly, if a big storm tracks through Iowa and lays down widespread snow to the nw, that's ok.  We'll never get any sustained winter without that first step.

[Stacsh]

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Frankly, if a big storm tracks through Iowa and lays down widespread snow to the nw, that's ok.  We'll never get any sustained winter without that first step.

That would be ideal, but unfortunately there isn't any arctic air to play either.  

[Grizzcoat]

Dakota's area (N.Plains) this time of year, with enough snowpack, can produce air pretty close to Arctic Cold. Even S.Can is lacking in snow over. Lower 48 may have to produce its own "Arctic" air masses until things get more typical.

 

[Minny_Weather]

40 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

That would be ideal, but unfortunately there isn't any arctic air to play either.  

The Yukon will be loaded with cold air in a week or two. It'll take a while, but we'll get it.

[Beltrami Island]

 

12 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

The Yukon will be loaded with cold air in a week or two. It'll take a while, but we'll get it.

Does arctic air over the Yukon (and Alaska) ever make it to the lower 48?  I though in general it is most likely to move west or south and dissipate over the north pacific.  Usually the cold air that makes is south over North America comes via Nunavut and Hudson Bay on the eastern side of the Rockies.

[Minny_Weather]

10 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

 

Does arctic air over the Yukon (and Alaska) ever make it to the lower 48?  I though in general it is most likely to move west or south and dissipate over the north pacific.  Usually the cold air that makes is south over North America comes via Nunavut and Hudson Bay on the eastern side of the Rockies.

Cold air can move NW to SE.

[bud2380]

Anyone have the EPS or it's members available?  I'm curious to see if it's similar to the Op model.

[Clinton]

22 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Anyone have the EPS or it's members available?  I'm curious to see if it's similar to the Op model.

It's warm and all over the place.

[Grizzcoat]

[Stacsh]

So outside of an unseen major pattern changing storm , winter is not coming yet to SMI.   Boring next 10 days.  Hopefully the models throw out something in the next few days that give some hope for a white and cold holiday.  

[Grizzcoat]

Reality, says most precip S of about 45N over the next 10-14 days is going to be liquid no matter what a model says. As previously mentioned, no cold air from no snowpack to areas NW. Not that it can't snow S of 45, but it's going to be extremely difficult.

[gabel23]

11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Reality, says most precip S of about 45N over the next 10-14 days is going to be liquid no matter what a model says. As previously mentioned, no cold air from no snowpack to areas NW. Not that it can't snow S of 45, but it's going to be extremely difficult.

It's December, we get a storm strong enough it shouldn't have any problem generating it's own cold air. I'm with you though; I can see more liquid coming from this than frozen. I can also see this thing being way more to the north and west than what's being shown right now. Just glad we have something, just hope it stays there! 

[OmahaSnowFan]

If it's not going to be stormy and snowy, than it can be like it is today. 53 degrees, sunny, and barely a breeze!

[whatitdo]

@jaster220 @westMJim @Stacsh in yall's experience does SW mich get snow even when temps are consistently above average? Everytime I looked at the temp anomaly map and saw shades of orange and yellow I automatically gave up on even thinking about snow in the south. Granted here temps are colder just at baseline. Now that im finishing typing this question I feel like I'm just looking for reassurance more than anything haha

 

[bud2380]

18z GFS is very wet.  

[bud2380]

Not only is the 18z GFS very wet, but in 6 hours it strengthens 8mb and retrogrades. Granted this is 9+ days away.  

 

 

[bud2380]

 

So much rain.  Obviously this is so far down the road it's not realistic, but what a sad run nonetheless. 

 

[mlgamer]

@bud2380 Snow in KS, rain and T-storms due north in SDAK and NE.  2020 would be the year that just keeps on giving...lol

[westMJim]

13 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 @westMJim @Stacsh in yall's experience does SW mich get snow even when temps are consistently above average? Everytime I looked at the temp anomaly map and saw shades of orange and yellow I automatically gave up on even thinking about snow in the south. Granted here temps are colder just at baseline. Now that im finishing typing this question I feel like I'm just looking for reassurance more than anything haha

 

While it can indeed snow with temperatures above average it tends to be a more system driven snow fall that are wetter snow. As for this year I would not give up on seeing a big snow storm yet and the lakes are still warm enough that if we do get a good shot of cold air we could see some intense lake effect under the right conditions. But that said we are now getting to the point that as a whole the 2020/21 snow fall season could end up below average.

[CentralNebWeather]

Whatever transpires, we need moisture around here badly. A rain storm or wet, sloppy snowstorm wouldn’t be the worst thing if I’m being honest. 

[james1976]

Ill be in St Paul next weekend. Got a feeling there's a better shot at snow up there than there will be in IA.