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Nov 30-Dec 2 OHV/Eastern GL's possibly historic snowstorm.


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I think it's a matter of exactly when/where/who scores the most snow from this impending storm. As I understand it, the UL wave came onshore in Cali last night and that ingest may have been the reason more models are converging. Time for a thread me thinks as we are within the magical h120 range. Right now, eastern Michigan looks like ground zero as well as parts of Indiana and Ohio. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and good luck to those hoping to score!

 

20201126 0z GFS h126 Surf.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Detroit so far received 3" Its all snow covered outside and what a way to welcome December. Currently this:   Light Snow and Low Drifting Snow 27°F  

Places just south of CLE already with a foot of snow OTG...what an incredible way to open up Winter for them folks!    

I think it's a matter of exactly when/where/who scores the most snow from this impending storm. As I understand it, the UL wave came onshore in Cali last night and that ingest may have been the reason

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33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think it's a matter of exactly when/where/who scores the most snow from this impending storm. As I understand it, the UL wave came onshore in Cali last night and that ingest may have been the reason more models are converging. Time for a thread me thinks as we are within the magical h120 range. Right now, eastern Michigan looks like ground zero as well as parts of Indiana and Ohio. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and good luck to those hoping to score. (thought Tom would have this thread up when I awoke tbh)

 

20201126 0z GFS h126 Surf.png

Good idea for posting a thread on this monster Jaster.

Man, this storm is going to be a dangerous one. Anyone in the path of this thing will encounter some old memories from past huge snowstorms that don't happen too aften.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I get a rock.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Yep, the 12z Euro shows the big low never fully detaching from the northern stream, so it doesn't stall and wrap up like previous runs.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's about dinner time here so this will prob be my last post for the day.  12z Euro/EPS did take a step back this run...this may just be the mid range mayhem or a the start of a trend.  Let's see what the 00z runs show.

2.png

1.png

 

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Good idea for posting a thread on this monster Jaster.

Man, this storm is going to be a dangerous one. Anyone in the path of this thing will encounter some old memories from past huge snowstorms that don't happen too aften.

This is like 99 percent of the others.  Computer models are making money off people now.  Flash a big storm, get people staring at every run.  Then fizzle 4 days out.   It’s a scam.   This is just a typical early December storm.   Nothing to see here.  

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0z GFS snowfall (take with grain of salt, includes mix). Could still be decent for Niko's area just like last winter's storms, lol.

 

 

20201127 0z GFS h138 Snowfall.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0z GEM is friendlier to Indiana and Ohio than SEMI for some reason.

 

20201127 0z GEM h120 Snowfall-SLR.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0z Euro as posted in the Dec thd, is LOL-worthy! After all those mega-hit maps, it chucks me a 2" bone to chew on.

 

20201127 0z Euro h120 SN SLR.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0z ICON says "hold my beer, I can do loops as well" and proceeds to give the best outcome of the globals tonight for SEMI:

 

20201127 0z h129 Snowfall.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

This is like 99 percent of the others.  Computer models are making money off people now.  Flash a big storm, get people staring at every run.  Then fizzle 4 days out.   It’s a scam.   This is just a typical early December storm.   Nothing to see here.  

Could've seen it coming when Tom posted the last 2 EPS snowfall maps that did NOT back-up the Euro Op's huge spinner idea. All the globals tonight have followed the EPS to a "tee"

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yuck. NAM's even further east than the globals. Going to be a complete whiff at this rate.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Could've seen it coming when Tom posted the last 2 EPS snowfall maps that did NOT back-up the Euro Op's huge spinner idea. All the globals tonight have followed the EPS to a "tee"

If the models don’t shift back west today it may be over for west michigan. Would lake effect still take place though even if the track misses to the east? 

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The main ULL is currently spinning directly overhead across the state of AZ.  Some snow is falling up in the mountains right now, esp up near Flagstaff where the ski resort opened up earlier this week.  Not expecting much snow but enough to lighten up the holiday spirits.  They are having their annual Christmas lighting tonight up in Flagstaff so the snow is well-timed.

 

WeatherStory2.png?c56b37dac88959d62ea63c

 

 

nam3km_z500_vort_swus_7.png

 

 

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6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yuck. NAM's even further east than the globals. Going to be a complete whiff at this rate.

It's not looking great bud, I wish this storm was a week later.  Lots of changes starting right now so I wouldn't bail on this just yet.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GFS...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Hopefully Niko can still pull a rabbit out of a hat with this over his way. I'm now marginalized on the accum's and tbh, with highs Monday and Tuesday well above freezing this would be more white rain or dust-up. Without high enough rates to overcome the still warm surfaces, that's all I'm expecting at this point. Such potential wasted without the arctic connection. We REALLY need a stretch of cold to cool off the ground first before snow can come and stick. Lwr Lakes (as in between Michigan and Huron, not west like Chicago) has to have the cold temps or it's a no-go for snow.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 hours ago, whatitdo said:

 

If the models don’t shift back west today it may be over for west michigan. Would lake effect still take place though even if the track misses to the east? 

Short answer = not this time. Long answer = the two key ingredients for LES are the "Delta T" or temperature difference between Lake Michigan's surface and the air temps at cloud height above (usually the 850 mb temp profile maps give a good indication of those temps). For decent LES, you need Delta-T's in the 13F to 20F. Higher is often better. This scenario unfortunately has neither a good punch of arctic air, nor do the winds turn in a favorable direction. Kzoo does well with NW winds and further east needs more WNW to be ideal. This scenario most often happens when we see a Clipper storm drop out of Canada swing through dragging a potent cold front. If there's one thing our NWS office in GRR is keen on, it's the LES scenario/potential so they will beat a drum loudly whenever those conditions appear on the horizon. Oddly, they are also the office that pushed for getting rid of all the LES headlines. Go figure, eh?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Models are really trending in the wrong direction with this one.  Looking more and more progressive each run.  

Yup. No cold, No bueno

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yep- once we see -AO, we will see cold enough air- BUT- will it remain rather active as we get to driest time of our climate?(with drier air being around>?)  Snow events in the 2-4" range here are hard enough to come by- a certified warning at 6"+ that is legit takes serious met cards to line up just right.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

00z EPS trending away from a large scale winter storm and more or less an OHV early season snowstorm.  @Niko looks to be the magnet with this one...

 

1.png

 

00z Euro Control...

2.png

Yes sir...we will see how this plays all out. Tomorrow will be the perfect day to sample everything together. Models have been in a flux, but, that is normal and from what I am now seeing in terms of modeling, the further east you are, the better. Will have more time to look into this storm later today as I am still hosting my family from NY.

 

FWIW: Here is what Accu-weather thinks:

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SnowfallMap27Nov10a.jpg?w=632

*Cities currently in the path of some of the heaviest snow include Cleveland and Toledo, Ohio, Detroit and London, Ontario. The core of the heaviest snow could shift somewhat depending upon the exact track of the storm.

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hopefully Niko can still pull a rabbit out of a hat with this over his way. I'm now marginalized on the accum's and tbh, with highs Monday and Tuesday well above freezing this would be more white rain or dust-up. Without high enough rates to overcome the still warm surfaces, that's all I'm expecting at this point. Such potential wasted without the arctic connection. We REALLY need a stretch of cold to cool off the ground first before snow can come and stick. Lwr Lakes (as in between Michigan and Huron, not west like Chicago) has to have the cold temps or it's a no-go for snow.

We will see.....I hope so too. This will not be a blockbuster, but a few inches could accumulate.

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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this is  becoming one of the biggest busts I can remember that's not imby---  changes for sure but the trends E and weakening are hard to ignore. snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

this is  becoming one of the biggest busts I can remember that's not imby---  changes for sure but the trends E and weakening are hard to ignore. snku_acc.us_mw.png

Looking back a few days ago, the GFS/GEFS were all E of every model and weaker/disorganized...GFS FTW???

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If Michigan were my back yard (more on back yard later) I'd be concerned about the NAM daubing out, (usually amped at this range)   per my back yard for any impending storm shown on guidance out in the long range- expect it E and weaker with cold air (lacking)  as previously mentioned by several posters. Without true Arctic air - and little snowpack- expect systems to shift E and get wetter (more rain). It sucks getting drawn into these models. One thing I've learned over years in this field that is outside 48-60 hours - anything can happen with winter weather, infact- much closer. Posting of snow maps +96 (ive done in the past) I will not do again. Just too many variables for it to really make any sense between snow and rain or even nothing. Look at this Michigan "system" and thread title. #1 rule as a forecaster is to down play events until you can't anymore as the rule of (most climates) dictates agst it. 12-24" snow events don't happen for 99.5% of us reading this 2-3 days out.  6-12" events on the order of 90%- 36-48 hours out. Remember folks- model (guidance) has a MAX set into to POP- can it excede it is not up to the model but for a human to see the likely effect it WILL not over that forecast range per SQ MI. I give NWS a hard time- but they are more right and give credence to "status quo" and are more right per "SQ MI" than we could ever be.  Again - DOWNPLAY all events - unless you really follow the weather- if models- expect to get what you deserve.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFS gives my area 6"+ while the European 3-6"

This info was given by my local forecasters.

 

Jaster: hope you can score something outta this bud. I hear the 18Z GFS and its ensembles came a little more west for ya. Should be very interesting early next week. One thing about this storm is that the more east you are, the more snow ya get. I am thinking anyone west of Jackson gets a dusting to an inch or 2, maybe less. Very sharp line from getting heavy snow to no snow.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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58 minutes ago, Niko said:

GFS gives my area 6"+ while the European 3-6"

This info was given by my local forecasters.

 

Jaster: hope you can score something outta this bud. I hear the 18Z GFS and its ensembles came a little more west for ya. Should be very interesting early next week. One thing about this storm is that the more east you are, the more snow ya get. I am thinking anyone west of Jackson gets a dusting to an inch or 2, maybe less. Very sharp line from getting heavy snow to no snow.

18z euro more west..

image.thumb.png.fd0f045d0dee8ebc31790720d14dd8fa.png

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z CMC back west also.  Real nice snow for Niko.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

GEM looks good as well, if not better.

Tbh, I suspect that there will be better sampling by tomorrow as the event nears.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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9 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

If Michigan were my back yard (more on back yard later) I'd be concerned about the NAM daubing out, (usually amped at this range)   per my back yard for any impending storm shown on guidance out in the long range- expect it E and weaker with cold air (lacking)  as previously mentioned by several posters. Without true Arctic air - and little snowpack- expect systems to shift E and get wetter (more rain). It sucks getting drawn into these models. One thing I've learned over years in this field that is outside 48-60 hours - anything can happen with winter weather, infact- much closer. Posting of snow maps +96 (ive done in the past) I will not do again. Just too many variables for it to really make any sense between snow and rain or even nothing. Look at this Michigan "system" and thread title. #1 rule as a forecaster is to down play events until you can't anymore as the rule of (most climates) dictates agst it. 12-24" snow events don't happen for 99.5% of us reading this 2-3 days out.  6-12" events on the order of 90%- 36-48 hours out. Remember folks- model (guidance) has a MAX set into to POP- can it excede it is not up to the model but for a human to see the likely effect it WILL not over that forecast range per SQ MI. I give NWS a hard time- but they are more right and give credence to "status quo" and are more right per "SQ MI" than we could ever be.  Again - DOWNPLAY all events - unless you really follow the weather- if models- expect to get what you deserve.

That X1,000

Appreciate your insights/commentary Grizz. After 4 days of globals showing cold air sweeping in behind the northern stream clipper and then the GFS finally joining the Euro and GEM, it seemed like it was "game on". But no sooner did I create the thread and it all fell apart like a house of cards. I did put 2 caveats in my text, the cold being critical to evolution, and the fact that these phase-bombs are the worst for models to portray.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

GEM looks good as well, if not better.

Tbh, I suspect that there will be better sampling by tomorrow as the event nears.

My high temp Monday is currently set at 36F but seems to drop to freezing by 4 pm. Let's see if these west trends are f'real. Last minute comeback?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well...

 

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I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event.  @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name).

2.png

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Nice write-up from NOAA:

The part of the forecast that has the most uncertainty is 
is the track of the low once it is over upstate New York/Ontario Tuesday.
A secondary low/remnants of the original remains over southern Ontario
as the upper trough swings across the Great Lakes forming into a
closed low. As this closure occurs, the trough undergoes negative
tilting allowing for deepening in the secondary low. Solutions
continue to show retrograde motion of the low taking it northwest
through Ontario (there is still a fair amount of spread in the
ensembles in the exact track of this). It appears this motion is the
result of another closed upper low dropping south into the central
Plains and interacting with the Great Lakes closed low causing a
pivoting motion in both lows. Timing of all this is looking to be
the second half of the day Tuesday into Wednesday. This deepening
brings in or keeps, depending on the model family, the deformation
axis/trowal over SE MI as well as increasing snowfall rates. There
is a wide variation in solutions on how long this axis resides over
the region which is causing the majority of range in model forecast
snow totals.
  
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well...

 

1.png

 

 

I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event.  @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name).

2.png

I'll take near a foot in a heartbeat, but tbh, if this thing stalls over Ontario, then, it has my area in heavy snow and wind till Wednesday.

  • Snow 2

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

My high temp Monday is currently set at 36F but seems to drop to freezing by 4 pm. Let's see if these west trends are f'real. Last minute comeback?

Possibly. At least now you stand the chance of getting some snow. Also, you might be in for some (bonus) LES as well.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well...

 

1.png

 

 

I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event.  @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name).

2.png

Glad to see this isn't continuing to fizzle, but rather staging something of a comeback in the models. That's a nasty, nasty cut-off right thru mby tho between the haves to my east, and the have-nots to my west. What's being portrayed, and described in Niko's NOAA text is actually quite similar to the scenario that produced the Detroit early season big dog in '74. I figured being "the 70's" that it was a cold period, but looking at the historical data, the month of Nov was colder than the current one, but temps leading up to the storm, and even during the big storm were only marginally cold. So there's that. Personally, I'd given up on this being anything but more nuisance SN, so this thing is driving me nuts, lol.

 

DTW 1974 Late Nov Temps.PNG

DTW 1974 Early Dec Temps.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

My high temp Monday is currently set at 36F but seems to drop to freezing by 4 pm. Let's see if these west trends are f'real. Last minute comeback?

 

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Possibly. At least now you stand the chance of getting some snow. Also, you might be in for some (bonus) LES as well.

12z NAM agrees that my Monday high will be mid-30s but has colder air working into the system from the N and gets me to freezing by 1 pm. 850's are already plenty cold by then. Hoping it's onto something.

 

20201128 NAM 12z 2m Temps h54.png

20201128 NAM 12z 850 mb Temps h54.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

 

12z NAM agrees that my Monday high will be mid-30s but has colder air working into the system from the N and gets me to freezing by 1 pm. 850's are already plenty cold by then. Hoping it's onto something.

 

20201128 NAM 12z 2m Temps h54.png

20201128 NAM 12z 850 mb Temps h54.png

Amigo..its looking better and better for ya......and as more sampling happens today, ironing down the details will be getting a lot more simpler.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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  • jaster220 changed the title to Nov 30-Dec 2 OHV/Eastern GL's possibly historic snowstorm.
  • Tom unpinned this topic

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