jaster220 Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 I think it's a matter of exactly when/where/who scores the most snow from this impending storm. As I understand it, the UL wave came onshore in Cali last night and that ingest may have been the reason more models are converging. Time for a thread me thinks as we are within the magical h120 range. Right now, eastern Michigan looks like ground zero as well as parts of Indiana and Ohio. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and good luck to those hoping to score! 1 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 33 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I think it's a matter of exactly when/where/who scores the most snow from this impending storm. As I understand it, the UL wave came onshore in Cali last night and that ingest may have been the reason more models are converging. Time for a thread me thinks as we are within the magical h120 range. Right now, eastern Michigan looks like ground zero as well as parts of Indiana and Ohio. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and good luck to those hoping to score. (thought Tom would have this thread up when I awoke tbh) Good idea for posting a thread on this monster Jaster. Man, this storm is going to be a dangerous one. Anyone in the path of this thing will encounter some old memories from past huge snowstorms that don't happen too aften. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 Jaster...we get clobbered! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 I get a rock. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 That euro is underwhelming for SW michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 Yep, the 12z Euro shows the big low never fully detaching from the northern stream, so it doesn't stall and wrap up like previous runs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 Yeah the euro looks very yuck so does gem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 It's about dinner time here so this will prob be my last post for the day. 12z Euro/EPS did take a step back this run...this may just be the mid range mayhem or a the start of a trend. Let's see what the 00z runs show. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 26, 2020 Report Share Posted November 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Niko said: Good idea for posting a thread on this monster Jaster. Man, this storm is going to be a dangerous one. Anyone in the path of this thing will encounter some old memories from past huge snowstorms that don't happen too aften. This is like 99 percent of the others. Computer models are making money off people now. Flash a big storm, get people staring at every run. Then fizzle 4 days out. It’s a scam. This is just a typical early December storm. Nothing to see here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 0z GFS snowfall (take with grain of salt, includes mix). Could still be decent for Niko's area just like last winter's storms, lol. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 0z GEM is friendlier to Indiana and Ohio than SEMI for some reason. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 0z Euro as posted in the Dec thd, is LOL-worthy! After all those mega-hit maps, it chucks me a 2" bone to chew on. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 0z ICON says "hold my beer, I can do loops as well" and proceeds to give the best outcome of the globals tonight for SEMI: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 10 hours ago, tStacsh said: This is like 99 percent of the others. Computer models are making money off people now. Flash a big storm, get people staring at every run. Then fizzle 4 days out. It’s a scam. This is just a typical early December storm. Nothing to see here. Could've seen it coming when Tom posted the last 2 EPS snowfall maps that did NOT back-up the Euro Op's huge spinner idea. All the globals tonight have followed the EPS to a "tee" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 Yuck. NAM's even further east than the globals. Going to be a complete whiff at this rate. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Could've seen it coming when Tom posted the last 2 EPS snowfall maps that did NOT back-up the Euro Op's huge spinner idea. All the globals tonight have followed the EPS to a "tee" If the models don’t shift back west today it may be over for west michigan. Would lake effect still take place though even if the track misses to the east? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 00z EPS trending away from a large scale winter storm and more or less an OHV early season snowstorm. @Niko looks to be the magnet with this one... 00z Euro Control... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 The main ULL is currently spinning directly overhead across the state of AZ. Some snow is falling up in the mountains right now, esp up near Flagstaff where the ski resort opened up earlier this week. Not expecting much snow but enough to lighten up the holiday spirits. They are having their annual Christmas lighting tonight up in Flagstaff so the snow is well-timed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 06z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 6 hours ago, jaster220 said: Yuck. NAM's even further east than the globals. Going to be a complete whiff at this rate. It's not looking great bud, I wish this storm was a week later. Lots of changes starting right now so I wouldn't bail on this just yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: 06z GFS... Hopefully Niko can still pull a rabbit out of a hat with this over his way. I'm now marginalized on the accum's and tbh, with highs Monday and Tuesday well above freezing this would be more white rain or dust-up. Without high enough rates to overcome the still warm surfaces, that's all I'm expecting at this point. Such potential wasted without the arctic connection. We REALLY need a stretch of cold to cool off the ground first before snow can come and stick. Lwr Lakes (as in between Michigan and Huron, not west like Chicago) has to have the cold temps or it's a no-go for snow. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 Models are really trending in the wrong direction with this one. Looking more and more progressive each run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 6 hours ago, whatitdo said: If the models don’t shift back west today it may be over for west michigan. Would lake effect still take place though even if the track misses to the east? Short answer = not this time. Long answer = the two key ingredients for LES are the "Delta T" or temperature difference between Lake Michigan's surface and the air temps at cloud height above (usually the 850 mb temp profile maps give a good indication of those temps). For decent LES, you need Delta-T's in the 13F to 20F. Higher is often better. This scenario unfortunately has neither a good punch of arctic air, nor do the winds turn in a favorable direction. Kzoo does well with NW winds and further east needs more WNW to be ideal. This scenario most often happens when we see a Clipper storm drop out of Canada swing through dragging a potent cold front. If there's one thing our NWS office in GRR is keen on, it's the LES scenario/potential so they will beat a drum loudly whenever those conditions appear on the horizon. Oddly, they are also the office that pushed for getting rid of all the LES headlines. Go figure, eh? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Models are really trending in the wrong direction with this one. Looking more and more progressive each run. Yup. No cold, No bueno Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Models are really trending in the wrong direction with this one. Looking more and more progressive each run. Has a +AO influence to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 Yep- once we see -AO, we will see cold enough air- BUT- will it remain rather active as we get to driest time of our climate?(with drier air being around>?) Snow events in the 2-4" range here are hard enough to come by- a certified warning at 6"+ that is legit takes serious met cards to line up just right. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 If the euro doesn’t stop the trend on this run and run tonight may be time to put a fork in it. Not that I haven’t lost all confidence in it already lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 7 hours ago, Tom said: 00z EPS trending away from a large scale winter storm and more or less an OHV early season snowstorm. @Niko looks to be the magnet with this one... 00z Euro Control... Yes sir...we will see how this plays all out. Tomorrow will be the perfect day to sample everything together. Models have been in a flux, but, that is normal and from what I am now seeing in terms of modeling, the further east you are, the better. Will have more time to look into this storm later today as I am still hosting my family from NY. FWIW: Here is what Accu-weather thinks: *Cities currently in the path of some of the heaviest snow include Cleveland and Toledo, Ohio, Detroit and London, Ontario. The core of the heaviest snow could shift somewhat depending upon the exact track of the storm. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: Hopefully Niko can still pull a rabbit out of a hat with this over his way. I'm now marginalized on the accum's and tbh, with highs Monday and Tuesday well above freezing this would be more white rain or dust-up. Without high enough rates to overcome the still warm surfaces, that's all I'm expecting at this point. Such potential wasted without the arctic connection. We REALLY need a stretch of cold to cool off the ground first before snow can come and stick. Lwr Lakes (as in between Michigan and Huron, not west like Chicago) has to have the cold temps or it's a no-go for snow. We will see.....I hope so too. This will not be a blockbuster, but a few inches could accumulate. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 12zEuro 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 this is becoming one of the biggest busts I can remember that's not imby--- changes for sure but the trends E and weakening are hard to ignore. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: this is becoming one of the biggest busts I can remember that's not imby--- changes for sure but the trends E and weakening are hard to ignore. Looking back a few days ago, the GFS/GEFS were all E of every model and weaker/disorganized...GFS FTW??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 If Michigan were my back yard (more on back yard later) I'd be concerned about the NAM daubing out, (usually amped at this range) per my back yard for any impending storm shown on guidance out in the long range- expect it E and weaker with cold air (lacking) as previously mentioned by several posters. Without true Arctic air - and little snowpack- expect systems to shift E and get wetter (more rain). It sucks getting drawn into these models. One thing I've learned over years in this field that is outside 48-60 hours - anything can happen with winter weather, infact- much closer. Posting of snow maps +96 (ive done in the past) I will not do again. Just too many variables for it to really make any sense between snow and rain or even nothing. Look at this Michigan "system" and thread title. #1 rule as a forecaster is to down play events until you can't anymore as the rule of (most climates) dictates agst it. 12-24" snow events don't happen for 99.5% of us reading this 2-3 days out. 6-12" events on the order of 90%- 36-48 hours out. Remember folks- model (guidance) has a MAX set into to POP- can it excede it is not up to the model but for a human to see the likely effect it WILL not over that forecast range per SQ MI. I give NWS a hard time- but they are more right and give credence to "status quo" and are more right per "SQ MI" than we could ever be. Again - DOWNPLAY all events - unless you really follow the weather- if models- expect to get what you deserve. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 Yup the GFS runs a few days ago may verify. Looks more progressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 27, 2020 Report Share Posted November 27, 2020 Hoping the hi res models show a bit more lake effect in North Central WI as this gets underway 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 GFS gives my area 6"+ while the European 3-6" This info was given by my local forecasters. Jaster: hope you can score something outta this bud. I hear the 18Z GFS and its ensembles came a little more west for ya. Should be very interesting early next week. One thing about this storm is that the more east you are, the more snow ya get. I am thinking anyone west of Jackson gets a dusting to an inch or 2, maybe less. Very sharp line from getting heavy snow to no snow. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 58 minutes ago, Niko said: GFS gives my area 6"+ while the European 3-6" This info was given by my local forecasters. Jaster: hope you can score something outta this bud. I hear the 18Z GFS and its ensembles came a little more west for ya. Should be very interesting early next week. One thing about this storm is that the more east you are, the more snow ya get. I am thinking anyone west of Jackson gets a dusting to an inch or 2, maybe less. Very sharp line from getting heavy snow to no snow. 18z euro more west.. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 hours ago, whatitdo said: 18z euro more west.. 0z CMC back west also. Real nice snow for Niko. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z CMC back west also. Real nice snow for Niko. GEM looks good as well, if not better. Tbh, I suspect that there will be better sampling by tomorrow as the event nears. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Niko said: GEM looks good as well, if not better. Tbh, I suspect that there will be better sampling by tomorrow as the event nears. I agree hope you can pull a nice one out of this. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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